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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/25/2007
HOLX (Hologic--$57.86; +1.74; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume jumped above average the past two sessions as HOLX moved toward the breakout from its 19 week base. The stock has formed a base on base pattern, i.e. two bases one after the other. The first base was a 10 month cup with handle that yielded a breakout in late January, but it did not add a lot to the price before forming the current base. Like these base on base patterns because they do a good job of weeding out the sellers. Looking for it to clear the 'hump' in the base at 58.32 hit back in July. That is our buy point for this stock that is strong both technically and fundamentally.
Volume: 2.243M Avg Volume: 1.538M
BUY POINT: $58.42 Volume=1.6M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: QHX AK - Jan. $55c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 09/25/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$39.22; +0.80; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Mid-October
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at APH as it has tested last week's break higher from its 8 week cup with handle base. Nice break higher and then a good, quick test of near support at the 10 day EMA (38.24) where it held easily. Bounced off that level Tuesday though volume did not move with it. Want to see trade rise as it continues higher. A solid base taking APH to a new all-time high, and the stock has great fundamentals growth rates to go along with its technical pattern.
Volume: 719K Avg Volume: 961.192K
BUY POINT: $39.42 Volume=1.2M Target=$45.45 Stop=$37.98
POSITION: APH AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Play Date: 09/25/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$27.10; -0.54; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Test breakout. VIP broke out in late August from a 7 week double bottom with handle base. It surged and came back to the 10 day EMA (now at 26.89), then surged again. It is making its second test of the 10 day EMA, coming back on low volume to make the test. Nice doji at that level on Tuesday, and looking for volume to come back in as it makes the bounce off this near support. That is our next buy point as VIP follows the strong money flow higher.
Volume: 1.762M Avg Volume: 3.344M
BUY POINT: $27.75 Volume=3.4M Target=$33.31 Stop=$26.39
POSITION: VIQ AZ - Jan. $27c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/25/2007
IBM (International Business Machines--$116.51; +0.26; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Mid-October
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IBM looks close to breaking from its 9 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (114) as support. This is part of a much larger 8 year base, and IBM has moved back up to the top of the pattern. Indeed, the current base looks to be the final shakeout before a breakout and move to a new all-time high. Not bad at all.
Volume: 7.045M Avg Volume: 8.602M
BUY POINT: $118.24 Volume=13M Target=$133.45 Stop=$115.65
POSITION: IBM AC - Jan. $115c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ibm.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 09/25/2007
RIG (Transocean--$112.69; +0.21; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Test breakout. After the solid breakout last week from the handle of its 8 week cup with handle, RIG is making a nice, easy test on low volume. It tapped near support at the 10 day EMA (110.46) on the low and rebounded to close modestly higher. Excellent action in its base and it looks ready to follow some excellent money supply growth. Nice base that is perched near an all-time high and ready to send it higher. Strong fundamentals to go with the pattern, and we are looking to add to positions as it breaks higher.
Volume: 4.33M Avg Volume: 6.479M
BUY POINT: $113.25 Volume=8M Target=$126.95 Stop=$110.28
POSITION: RIG AC - Jan. $115c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rig.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/24/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$53.76; +0.13; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still a very nice test underway as FLIR tapped the 10 day EMA (52.83) on the low and then rebounded to post a modest gain. Volume was still low so we did not enter. Looking for some stronger volume as FLIR continues this nice test and bounce higher. To recap: Looking at FLIR again as it comes back to test the breakout last week from its 9 week ascending base. Volume was not quite there on the break higher so we did not move in. Now it is coming back to test the 10 day EMA and then try to resume the move. Very nice action and looking for the full test of the 10 day EMA and then we will pick it up on the bounce. If it does not make the full test but starts back up on rising trade that will be just as good. Solid stock with excellent fundamentals growth to go along with the pattern.
Volume: 519.876K Avg Volume: 829.154K
BUY POINT: New: 53.88 (orig. $52.88) Volume=1.3M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.88
POSITION: FFQ AJ - Jan. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flir.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/22/2007
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$69.24; -0.95; optionable): mobile cellular communications in the Russian Federation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
EARNINGS: 9/4/07
STATUS: Test to Breakout. Still testing, working laterally after that nice solid move higher last week. Low volume as it makes that move; may still have more to do and it may come back to the 10 day EMA (67.77) once more before it is ready to continue the run higher. Very solid. To recap: As with many stocks, MBT shot higher on Tuesday following the FOMC rate cut decision. The move is one out of the 10 week reverse head and shoulders base, pushing MBT to a new all-time high. Good volume surge, and then it tested back to in the week, tapping at the 10 day EMA on low, below-average volume. Another stock in one of our favorite by positions, i.e. the first test of the breakout from a nicely formed the base. This is yet another stock with excellent fundamentals, growth rates on top of a solid technical pattern. Looking for MBT to bounce higher once more on rising trade, and that is our entry point.
Volume: 1.046M Avg Volume: 1.649M
BUY POINT: $70.22 Volume=2M Target=$83.95 Stop=$66.69
POSITION: MBT AN - Jan. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
Play Date: 09/18/2007
RESP (Respironics--$48.74; +0.66; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume was moving higher Tuesday, moving toward average as RESP bounced off the 18 day EMA (47.83) that it has used for support and bumped up against the buy point. Very solid pattern and ready to make the break higher. Very nice.
Volume: 340.582K Avg Volume: 371.505K
BUY POINT: $49.38 Volume=553K Target=$56.85 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: RBQ AI - Jan. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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