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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Spit Plays:
Play Date: 09/29/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$53.52; +0.96; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. VSEA made us some great money in 2006 and earlier this year. It got the dips in August, but it found bottom and moved to a new high to start September. It has since made a very low volume, orderly pullback as the 50 day EMA (50.87) rose to meet it. Looks to have settled down at this point and is ready to make the move higher. When it makes the break on strong volume that is when we move in.
Volume: 772.686K Avg Volume: 1.713M
BUY POINT: $55.12 Volume=2.6M Target=$63.45 Stop=$52.35
POSITION: UES AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
Leader:
Play Date: 09/29/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$37.71; -0.71; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Test breakout. After a great breakout two weeks back from a 9 week trading range, SOHU is testing that move. It faded last week to test, moving on roughly average volume as it came back to the 18 day EMA (37.25) on the Friday low. On the move it tested its all-time high hit 4 years back, and this test sets it up to make the run at and breakout through that old high.
Volume: 952.992K Avg Volume: 974.643K
BUY POINT: $38.38 Volume=1M Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: UZK CG - Mar. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sohu.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/29/2007
CRDN (Ceradyne--$75.74; +0.01; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Starting to work on a handle to its nicely formed 11 week base. Rallied to a new high in July then needed the rest to set up for the next run. This base is doing just that. Looking for a couple more sessions or so of lateral move and then a break higher on rising volume.
Volume: 284.073K Avg Volume: 635.051K
BUY POINT: $76.88 Volume=950K Target=$89.95 Stop=$73.65
POSITION: AUE AO - Jan. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
New buys on current plays:
Play Date: 09/29/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$289.65; -2.32; optionable): Chinese Google
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. After that tremendous surge that netted us a tremendous gain, BIDU is making the test, heading back toward the 10 day EMA (279.41) with a pair of tight dojis on the candlestick pattern to end the week. Would like it to make a full test of the 10 day EMA, but if it starts up here we will start moving in for the next run.
Volume: 3.797M Avg Volume: 4.598M
BUY POINT: $292.11 Volume=5M Target=$336.00 Stop=$282.45
POSITION: BDU AZ - Jan. $300c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bidu.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$75.80; +1.77; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Ascending base. One of the best in its sector, OII started to break higher from its short 4 week base on Friday though volume was a bit lacking. OII continues leading the market, and it is not giving big consolidations, just these lateral pauses. Ready to move in as OII continues the run higher.
Volume: 638.6K Avg Volume: 864.763K
BUY POINT: $76.15 Volume=900K Target=$90.95 Stop=$72.89
POSITION: OII AO - Jan. $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oii.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$61.84; -0.52; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA (61.48). May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 2.491M Avg Volume: 4.181M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/25/2007
IBM (International Business Machines--$117.80; +0.09; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Mid-October
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still set to make the move, working laterally along the 10 day EMA, just waiting for the break to send it higher. To recap: IBM looks close to breaking from its 9 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (114) as support. This is part of a much larger 8 year base, and IBM has moved back up to the top of the pattern. Indeed, the current base looks to be the final shakeout before a breakout and move to a new all-time high. Not bad at all.
Volume: 7.72M Avg Volume: 8.614M
BUY POINT: $118.24 Volume=13M Target=$133.45 Stop=$115.65
POSITION: IBM AC - Jan. $115c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ibm.html
Play Date: 09/27/2007
SYK (Stryker--$68.76; -0.12; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
EARNINGS: 10-17-07
STATUS: Cup. Took Friday off on low volume, but still set to make the nice break higher. To recap: SYK has worked through a 24 week base and is trying to make a higher low above the 50 day EMA to set up a breakout move that will take it to an all-time high. Has been somewhat choppy the past couple of weeks so we want to see a strong break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 995.3K Avg Volume: 1.537M
BUY POINT: $69.48 Volume=2.3M Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: SYK AN - Jan. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/27/2007
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$67.15; -0.34; optionable): Sporting goods stores. Splits 2:1 on 10-22-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
EARNINGS: 11-20-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still holding at the 18 day EMA on low volume, setting up for the break higher from this nice test of that last surge higher. To recap: DKS enjoyed a nice surge in August and September following the breakout form a 4.5 month base. It has come back over the past 6 sessions to test that move, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (67.36). It has held the line there, and we are looking for a bounce higher from this support to continue the run.
Volume: 443K Avg Volume: 1.042M
BUY POINT: $68.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.85 Stop=$66.68
POSITION: DKS AM - Jan. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Play Date: 09/27/2007
DNR (Denbury Resources--$44.69; -0.41; optionable): Independent oil & gas exploration. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the break higher Friday, but as with most of the energy sector, it faded to close and on lower volume as well. Still at the 10 day EMA, and still set to give us the break higher in the pre-split move. To recap: Broke higher two weeks back, clearing a nine week base. It rallied nicely up to 46.50 and then made the test back the past week, holding at the 18 day EMA on the midweek intraday lows. Gapped higher modestly Friday, showing a doji over the 10 day EMA. Looks just about ready to resume the breakout run.
Volume: 852.6K Avg Volume: 1.233M
BUY POINT: $45.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$52.50 Stop=$43.55
POSITION: DNR AI - Jan. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dnr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/26/2007
MTW (Manitowoc--$44.28; -0.17; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still bumping at the breakout, and we are looking for it to make the move this week. To recap: A pair of nice tight dojis at the 10 day EMA on low volume as MTW looks just about ready to complete the test of its breakout two weeks back from a 9 week cup with handle base. Nicely formed pattern and a very nice low volume test. Looking for stronger volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 891.8K Avg Volume: 1.886M
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=2.5M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: MTW AV - Jan. $42.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtw.html
Play Date: 09/26/2007
FTK (Flotek Industries--$44.15; 0.00; no options): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ftk.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Breakout test. Very narrow, flat, tight range as FTK holds over the 10 day EMA, setting up for the next break higher. To recap: FTK is making its second test at the 10 day EMA (42.96) from the late August breakout from a 7 week base. Strong leader showing solid volume on the upside moves on the breakout and run higher, and now testing on lower trade. Looking for it to hold the line at the 10 day and start back up on stronger trade. That is when we move in.
Volume: 248.3K Avg Volume: 505.526K
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=550K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ftk.html
Play Date: 09/27/2007
SJR (Shaw Communications--$24.84; -0.02; no options): Cable TV sessions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjr.html
EARNINGS: 10-12-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA as SJR continues the excellent work on the pattern. Just a matter of time for the breakout. To recap: Taking another look at SJR as it has set up better, forming a handle the past week to its 8 week base. Used the 50 day EMA as support for the base, showing that buyers stepped in at that key level to support the stock and accumulate some shares. Very low trade so want to see some volume jump as SJR makes the break higher and moves to a new high.
Volume: 223.4K Avg Volume: 456.463K
BUY POINT: $25.65 Volume=690K Target=$30.55 Stop=$24.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sjr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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