|
|
stock recommendation, stock market today
Begin part 2 of 2
Best Plays:
1) EAT: Strong buying on a 50 day bounce.
2) COTT: Moving up on rising volume from support.
3) CEY: Still a tight lateral pattern.
4) ATVI: Holding support on low volume.
5) ITG: A financial that may breakout of this double bottom with handle
6) MIMS: Still weak.
7) KROL: Continues the tight pattern.
8) GOSHA: Much stronger volume in the ascending wedge.
9) DLTR: Moving up in the handle!
Note: April options on weekend report are changed to May or July where applicable. In this choppy market we want to give plenty of time to reach our targets.
Subscriber request update:
TROW (T.Rowe Price--$38.48; -0.13; optionable): Financial Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trow.html
STATUS: TROW is in a 28-week base with a previous high at 40.45. It made a solid three-day move up from the 50 day MVA at the end of January on a breakout move from its then 22-week cup with handle, then pulled back to the 18 day MVA off the new February high of 39.41. Friday the stock was up from the support on strong volume and looked ready for a strong surge after the breakout test, but Monday pulled back down to support again on lower volume (473,900; avg. 584,000), looking now like a forming ascending wedge. Showing strong money flow (which is ahead of price), we will look for a breakout over 39 on stronger volume. Target: 47
BUY POINT: Breakout: 39 on strong volume of 790,000 or higher. Stop: 36.27 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (RQW GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trow.html
New:
EAT (Brinker Intl--$31.55; +0.60; optionable): Leisure: Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Sold to the 50 day MVA (30.59) on rising volume last week, but on even stronger volume Monday EAT made a bounce from that support level (2.5 million; avg. 793,000). The move wasn't huge, and the stock remains below the 18 day MVA (32.04), but we like the volume, which indicates strong institutional buying. We also like YUM's earnings after the bell. We are looking for the move back over the 18 day MVA and a run up to a target at 38. EAT bounced from the 50 day MVA back in December, and after four 18 day MVA bounces, may be ready to go again. Strong money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 32.25 on continued strong volume. Stop: 30 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (EAT GE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eat.html
New (from the weekend):
COTT (Cott Corp--$17.42; +0.30; no options): Soft Drinks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cott.html
STATUS: The doji on Friday signaled a possible move up, and that is what COTT did, on rising volume (192,000; avg. 311,400). The stock was pulling back from a strong 50 day MVA run on a breakout from an 8-week cup (without handle) base. COTT tapped close to its 18 day MVA (16.61) on the low after opening at most recent support, the 10 day MVA and other price support at 17. Looking for continued upside and at a target of 22. Solid money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: 17.55 (hit 17.50 three times in the pullback) on 315,000 or higher volume.
Stop: 16.32 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cott.html
CEY (Certegy--$35.10; -0.14; optionable): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cey.html
STATUS: Broke out of a 4-month cup but immediately formed a flat base (almost a double bottom) consolidation which over the last week tightened into a handle above support of the short term moving averages. That is where the stock continued to hold Monday, showing another doji as volume slipped back to near average levels (196,000; avg. 169,300). The stock has thrown 2 volume spikes in this lateral pullback to support (the 18 day MVA, 34.81; the intraday low was 34.95), and that can mean a move up in the near future. Looking for the breakout over 35.60 on strong volume (the stock hit 35.65 on its high today). Target: 43. Excellent money flow.
BUY POINT: 35.70 on continued strong volume. Stop: 33.20 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (CEY GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cey.html
BVN (Compania De Minas Buena--$24.01; -0.74; no options): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvn.html
STATUS: A strong gold stock that tested back to the 10 day MVA last week after a strong run off the 18 day MVA in late January (after a breakout from a shallow, 3.5-month cup base). BVN jumped off its 10 day MVA Friday on huge volume but didn't follow through Monday, selling back below the 18 day MVA (23.26) but fighting its way back to close above the 10 day MVA, a nice recovery. We look for some consolidation here for perhaps 1-3 days, then another attempt at a move back up from here. If it falls to the 18 day MVA, same story, just may take another day or so to gather together for the move. Money flow and buying are strong. Target: 30
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 24.90 on continued strong volume. Stop: 23.11 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bvn.html
SLGN (Silgan Holdings--$27.95; +0.55; no options): Packaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slgn.html
STATUS: Tapped the 10 day MVA Friday as it tested the strong earnings breakout, then continued the bounce Monday though volume was just lower at 386,800 (avg. 180,000). The high of 28.25 tapped resistance neat the January high 28.33. The stock is still in good shape, trying to build up support at the 27 range, and we continue to look for a breakout over that high. Showing the huge money flow and buying noted on the weekend report. Target is 34.
BUY POINT: Hit the aggressive buy point of 27.75 (holding those positions for now). New buy points on a move over 28.33 on rising volume.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slgn.html
ATVI (Activision--$25.60; +0.03; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
STATUS: In a base of nearly 8 months (previous high is 27.29) and since early November forming a kind of ascending wedge pattern (has an aberrant December high at 27.91). Thus, not a perfect wedge but it has the characteristic of the higher lows (November, January and February) and relatively flat top. ATVI is holding for the second day above support at the 18 day (25.46) and 50 day (25.22) MVAs, just the action we were looking for until the stock can blast higher. We look for that move as the pattern tightens up; volume was even lower at 727,100 (avg. 2.1 million). Money flow and buying are solid and strong. Target: 34
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 26.30 on volume of 2.2 million or higher. Stop: 24.46 (7%)
Breakout: 28.64 on volume of 2.8 million or higher. Stop: 26.64 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $22.50 calls to buy (AQV EX); next month out is August.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atvi.html
URS (Urs Corp--$29.45; +0.10; no options): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urs.html
STATUS: Formed an ascending wedge after a breakout from a 7-month cup with handle. This could be a very bullish combination of patterns, and as the pattern tightens up nicely above the 18 day MVA (29.04) we are looking for a breakout. Monday URS continued to hold above the 18 day MVA (29.08) as volume slid back down to 58,800 (avg. 85,000). Target: 36
BUY POINT: Breakout: 30.30 on volume of 143,000 or higher. Stop: 28.28 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/urs.html
ITG (Investment Tech--$43.84; +0.72; optionable): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
STATUS: Moved up from the 10 day MVA, support along with the 18 day MVA in the ascending wedge pattern, handle to a 12-week double bottom base (that formed immediately after a breakout from a flat base). Volume was lower on the move (153,400; avg. 304,227) but we continue to look for the breakout over upper resistance at the 44 range. We are not wild about ascending wedges as handles, but do like the overall look. Money flow remains strong and buying solid. Target: 50
BUY POINT: Breakout: 44.50 on volume of 461,000 or higher. Stop: 41.39 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (ITZ GH; very low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itg.html
HOLX (Hologic--$13.16; -0.28; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Pulled back just a few cents below support (the 18 day MVA, 13.22), in the pennant pattern that has formed on nicely decreasing volume the last 18 days. The pattern formed off a breakout from another pennant, and currently HOLX is preparing for another take-off. We don't like the slip below support but the stock bounced back from its low at 12.89, closing above some lower support at the 13 range. Volume still very low though slightly higher at 62,200 (avg. 216,000). Continue to look for the breakout; the stock's money flow and buying are still outstanding. Target is 18.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 14.20 on volume of 225,000 or higher. Stop: 13.21 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or June $12.50 calls to buy (QHX FV; 50 open interests; delta 0.67 but should improve as the stock moves up).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/holx.html
New Puts from weekend:
UTSI (Utstarcom--$24.01; +1.96; optionable): Telecom: Wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
STATUS: We were looking for the kiss of death from UTSI but the stock was back over the 200 day MVA (22.78) in today's trading, with volume still below average but up slightly to 1.7 million (avg. 1.9 million). The stock closed under its 10 day MVA (24.52). Our buy point was 21.25 for the put play (kiss of death on a move down from the 200 day), so we will not look at taking any other downside positions from here, instead waiting to see if the stock will fall back below the 200 day, then test the broken support as originally expected.
BUY POINT: Aggressive for the kiss good-bye: 21.25 on strong, above average volume.
POSITION: May $30 puts to buy (UON QF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utsi.html
TLB (Talbots--$35.42; +2.17; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlb.html
STATUS: Some of the retailers had a good day Monday. TLB moved up as we expected, but instead of falling back from 34 instead broke that resistance and headed up to and through our next expected levels of resistance, the 50 day and 18 day MVAs (35.08 and 35.35). Volume was up to 412,900 (avg. 454,000) on the positive move. Still has the 200 day MVA ahead at 36, and we can get a move down from there once the markets initiate another potential pullback. However, we will have to get a break back through the 50 day MVA for considering downside positions, so will see if we get that move first.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tlb.html
VRTS (Veritas--$38.75; -1.38; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: VRTS could not move over the 10 day MVA Monday as volume fell back to 13.4 million (avg. 12.4 million) and the stock fell back, hitting our buy points on the kiss good-bye (41.50 and 39.75). It bounced off a low at 38.07, and we can look at adding to positions on a strong move back down through that low; that means rising volume. The February low is 35.57 for potential support on the move down, but our initial target is lower at 30.
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken at the buy points noted above. Stop Advisory: 42.50. New positions: Aggressive: Below 38 on rising volume.
POSITION: May $55 puts to buy (VIV QK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrts.html
MIMS (Mim Corp--$14.93; -0.59; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mims.html
STATUS: Hit our 15 buy point as the stock gapped lower and dropped to 14.32 on the low after Friday's higher volume reversal after a tap near the 50 day MVA (16.68). Volume was stronger Monday at 1.3 million (avg. 756,000) and MIMS bounced back up, but did not move back over the opening price on the gap down (15.30). We will continue to look for downside with the stock moving through the low on continued rising volume. That intraday low was testing some potential support from a few mid-December lows. Target on the fall is 12 (200 day MVA is at 10.50).
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken at 15 on continued rising volume. On a resumption of selling in the market we will look at additional positions below 14.25. Stop Advisory: 17
POSITION: April $22.50 puts to buy (OQX PX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mims.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
Continued Puts:
NVLS (Novellus--$40.74; +1.85; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: We were looking for NVLS to hit the 50 day MVA (40.34) then fall back, but instead the stock broke above that resistance (which includes the 18 day MVA, 40.35)! Volume was even lower at 6.4 million (avg. 7 million). NVLS is close to its down trendline just above the 50 day MVA simple (which is at 41.28), so the stock may stall out there. We will look at taking aggressive positions if we get another break, then test of, the 50 day MVA. Target: 31
BUY POINT: "Kiss good-bye" (aggressive) after a break of and test of the 50 day MVA: 39.50 on strong volume.
POSITION: June $55 puts to buy (NLQ RK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvls.html
BRCD (Brocade--$33.99; +1.36; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: BRCD was up over its resistance level as well today, though again (like NVLS), volume was lower on the move (12.8 million; avg. 14.9 million). Holding just under the 50 day MVA (34.22), this level may hold the stock back (with the 18 day MVA just above it at 34.66) for a move back down. We will look for BRCD to break back below the 200 day MVA (32.98), then a move back up to test. On a failure to move back over, we will again consider positions on the "kiss of death" as the stock falls from resistance. If the market continues higher another day or two, BRCD may hold the 200 day if it cannot break the 50 day. Target on that move will be 26.
BUY POINT: "Kiss good-bye": 32, after a test of the 200 day MVA and move back down.
POSITION: April $50 (UBF PJ) puts to buy.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcd.html
TEST OF BREAKOUT:
FAST (Fastenal--$71.25; +0.88; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
STATUS: FAST made a break out of the short reverse head and shoulders last week in a good move which was cut short; the stock closed with three dojis to close out the week. Today it gapped back to the 10 day MVA (69.20) but pushed up from there to close near the recent intraday high (71.50), albeit on lower volume of 231,700 (average 231,400). Looking for a stronger move from here, needing volume to come in on a move over the high. We could get a gap over that level, and if so we will see if it can successfully test 71.50, hold on and make a strong move back up. Target: 83
BUY POINT: From here: Over 71.75 on increased volume in the 300,000 range.
POSITION: May $65 calls to buy (FQA EL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fast.html
RTN (Raytheon--$38.12; +0.12; optionable): Aerospace/Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtn.html
STATUS: On its test of the breakout (from a 15-week flat base "pullback" into the 50 day MVA), RTN found support at the 10 day MVA for a 2-day bounce, but the move was on decreasing volume until today, when RTN showed a 'hanging man' doji on sharply higher volume (3.15 million; average 2.2 million). That pattern indicates that from here we could see a pullback, and we would again look for RTN to hold the 10 day, currently at 37.06). Ultimately looking for a new breakout over the February high (39.25), reached on the strong run up from the 50 day MVA (then 32, now 34). RTN shows strong money flow, high relative strength, and good buying. Target is 45.
BUY POINT: Hit aggressive buy point at 37.60, so riding those positions as the stock holds the 10 day MVA. New buy point from here over 38.90 on strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or May or August $35 calls to buy (RTN EG or HG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rtn.html
USAI (Usa Networks--$29.96; +0.93; optionable): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usai.html
STATUS: Nice move today, continuing its move started last week on the test of its breakout from the 21-week cup with handle pattern. USAI reached over the breakout high of 30.11 (made on an intraday spike) to 30.56, but pulled back to close. Volume was up again at 5.35 million (average 3.56 million). The move obviously took out our buy point, but with continued strength we are modifying the target to 35.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 31.62 with continued rising volume. Stop: 27.85-39.41.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $27.50 calls to buy (QTH GY).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/usai.html
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
KROL (Kroll--$18.46; -0.14; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krol.html
STATUS: Formed a 3-week ascending wedge as a test of the breakout from a larger, 8-week pennant type pattern. The 'double pattern' developed after KROL's September through mid-November strong uptrend. After another test of the 18 day MVA (18.10) at its low Friday, KROL held pat with a doji Monday on low volume (45,900; average 257,200). Continue to look for a breakout; KROL has outstanding money flow and strong buying. Target is 23.
BUY POINT: 19.34 on volume of 356,400 or higher. Stop: 18 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or June $17.50 calls to buy (KRQ FW; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/krol.html
GOSHA trades on less than 100,000 average daily volume:
GOSHA (OshKosh B'gosh--$41.45; -0.61; no options): Kid's clothes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html
STATUS: Waiting, waiting, waiting. Gapped down but continued to hold the 18 day MVA (41.40) as it pushed back up, holding the ascending wedge with the tail tightening up below resistance at 42.15. This pattern formed after a cup with handle breakout (mid-November) and we are partial to this combination of patterns. Wedges, too, can give explosive breakouts. Volume was sharply up Monday to 62,600 (average 44,400), so we will see if we can finally get some good volume to push it further up for a breakout move. Money flow remains high. Target is 52.
BUY POINT: 43.10 on minimum breakout volume of 60,000. Stop: 40.08 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gosha.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
DLTR (Dollar Tree Stores--$32.79; +1.50; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: DLTR made a nice bounce up today, although volume on the move continued to be at the low levels we have seen on the recent consolidation over the 18 day MVA (31.36). The consolidation is the handle to its 25-week cup, and the action has been good, gradually decreasing on low volume, holding the 18 day although just taking out its December high before today's move. From here we continue to look for a solid move up and breakout over the handle high at 33.96. DLTR is showing solid buying, and relative strength is ahead of price. Target: 41
BUY POINT: Breakout: 34.06 on volume of 1.8 million or better. Stop: 31.68 (7%). Aggressive: A move back over 33.20 on above average volume. Stop: 30.88.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $25 or $30 calls to buy (DQO CE or EF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock market today
|
