us stock market, trade stock

Begin part 2 of 2

PLAYS TO LOOK AT:

BONUS PLAYS: SEE exploded on the breakout move, and NTBK held onto a solid gain! ACAS headed down and triggered a buy alert, and SUSQ is still set up well in its pattern.

SAH (Sonic Automotive--$23.55; +0.45; optionable): Auto dealerships.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sah.html
STATUS: After a nice breakout move in early January, SAH took an abrupt fall after earnings last week. It fell hard Friday through its 50 day MVA (23.95), tapping 22 before pulling up to close, and managed to gap back over the 50 day to open today. The move did not hold, as it retreated back through that tenuous support to close. Volume was down but continued to be strong at 841,200 (average 224,000). We could see another effort to get back over the 50 day tomorrow, but are looking for a drop back and a put play, targeting the 200 day MVA, at 18.25.
BUY POINT: After a failed attempt to move back over the 50 day, a drop back through 23.30 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: March $30 puts to buy (SAH OF - no open interest).

NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAY:

FLIR (Flir Sys--$48.45; +3.05; optionable): We could see an announcement tomorrow with earnings, released before the open.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that FLIR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: An old friend that saw some tough times but set up again, and today FLIR broke out of a double bottom with handle (formed after a hard fall and recovery in November). FLIR made a new closing high today, and is just below the November high at 49.55. Volume was huge on today's move (1.01 million; average 324,000), which started after a test of the center of its pattern and the 10 day MVA (44.73). A solid move into earnings, which could presage good news to come. We will look for a move over the high with an announcement. Target: 56.
BUY POINT: Over 49.55 on continued strong volume. Stop: 46.08.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (FFQ GI).

MARKET FAVORITES: PG and XRX still set-up in their patterns, and BRCM and MANU made moves back over resistance, but that could set up a fall back.

SNPS (Synopsys--$50.59; +1.23; optionable): Computer software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: We picked up SNPS on the way down last week, and after hitting down to 46.26 it pulled back up in this market bounce. Today the move up for SNPS continued, but it has run up against its down trendline and 10 day MVA (50.62), and today volume pushing the stock up was weak at 879,600 (average 1.55 million). The weak bounce up spells another failure at the trendline. We could see the stock try to continue the move with some added resilience of the market bounce (the 200 day is 51.62, with the 18 day), but we are looking for a failure and drop back toward our target of 42.50.
BUY POINT: Looking for a failure of this move and a drop back through 49 as the buy point on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: March $55 puts to buy (YPQ OK).

EXTR (Extreme Networks--$12.01; +0.52; optionable): Internet software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/extr.html
STATUS: EXTR broke its long-term down trendline in early January, but turned back again from 17 and has been on a new trend down the last month. The stock tapped its former trendline last Thursday at its low of 10.09, bouncing back up with the market from there. EXTR continued up today, but Friday's weak volume decreased some more (3.37 million; average 5.9 million) and the stock closed just under its down trendline and 10 day MVA (12.15). The weak move up to the trendline sets up a drop back down, and we will target 9.
BUY POINT: A drop back through 11.50 on increased volume.
POSITION: March $15 puts to buy (EUT OC).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS: BMS broke out! DHI, DIAN and DRI are looking pretty good, with CTAS, GTK and RARE also keeping our attention.

DRS ($38.80; +0.09): Researching a date. Continued to tighten up with its 18 day MVA (38.37) in the handle, as volume again dipped back (84,900; average 229,300). Good action as DRS showed a doji and could be ready to make the move. The bounce is a move over 41 on above average volume, with stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (DRS FG). The breakout is 43.20 on volume of 345,000, with stock and/or June $40 calls to buy (DRS FH).

BMS ($53.15; +1.27): Working on a date. Broke out today, gapping up and continuing the move up to an intraday high of 53.37. Good volume although down a bit at 314,200 (average 235,700), and is still a buy up to 55.09 on the way to the initial target of 60. Stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (BMS GJ).

WLP (127.29; +1.30): WLP beat the street with earnings after hours and is really due for a split. We are watching carefully as the announcement could come at any time, perhaps in the morning. The stock has been riding along its short-term MVA's, again testing the 18 day today at its low of 125.25 before moving back up on solid, increased volume of 581,800 (average 498,400). We have been riding positions on good behavior, targeting 140, but on an announcement we can still look at positions on a move over 129 with continued strong volume, and stock and/or July $125 calls to buy (WLP GE).

YUM ($54.31; -0.19): Instead of Tuesday before the open, YUM announced Monday after the close. The company beat estimates and guided higher, so we will see the reaction tomorrow. Going into the announcement YUM has been solid, holding up again today with a doji on low volume (475,100; average 731,500) after tapping through the 18 day (54) at its low. On a move over the recent high at 56.20 on above average volume, or the aggressive play over 55.10, stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (YUM GJ).

INVN ($41.60; +4.12): Still looking for earnings Tuesday after the close, and we are looking at that event for an announcement, or more likely on 2-28-02 with a special meeting to increase authorized shares. After its strong retreat last week, INVN rebounded today off of Friday's doji at the 18 day MVA (38.24). A nice move with stronger but now outstanding volume (2.73 million; average 2.95 million). A play up from here is somewhat aggressive, but this stock has explosive moves. We would need to see volume of 3.5 million and a move over 42.50, with stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (FQQ GG). Maybe a quick play, even with an announcement, to the recent high at 47.

PRE-SPLITS: BLL won't quit, but is at the resistance of its upper channel trendline. It can trade over that, but we need to watch for a reversal session on high volume. Love the move, but we remain ready to take profits on any remaining positions.

BSYS ($62.60; +1.04): Splits 2:1 effective 2-25-02. Continued its move today, continuing up after having broken back through its short-term down trendline and a confluence of MVA's (50 day at 60.69 and 18 day at 61.40), as well as the highs of its 'shoulders' (62) to a head and shoulders it was in starting this move. We are riding the momentum of the pre-split move, which means we continue in positions until the stock shows us that it is topping; as pre-splits are volatile, topping signs get us ready for a possible exit. For now, still an aggressive buy on a move over 63 for a potential quick play up to the recent high of 66, where it could rest before another surge. Stock and/or March $60 calls to buy (BQY CL).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES: LLL made another big move, ACS could be read to head back down, and APPB is holding onto support.

HB ($59.47; -0.32): Looking good on the test of its recent move on earnings. HB again tested the 10 day MVA at its low of 58.97, showing a tight doji as volume moved back up to a strong 205,500 (average 137,600). The pattern suggests a bounce, and on a move back over 60.25 on above average volume, stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (HB FK - below 100 open interest).

GOSHA ($41.45; -0.61): Gapped down but again moved up to hang around the 18 day MVA (41.40) to close. Volume spiked up again (62,600; average 44,400) to breakout levels, and we continue to look for a buy point of 43.10 on that solid volume, with stock.

POST-SPLITS: CHS is still powering along, and SONC is trying a post-split move.

VAR ($38.76; +0.14): VAR is still looking nice, having tested its breakout and the 10 day MVA (38.30). A nice, lower volume consolidation, and today we got a spike in volume (559,500; average 306,600) as VAR showed another doji over support. The bounce play is a move over 39.50 on continued strong volume. The breakout is 40.03 on continued strong volume. For either, stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (VAR EG). Stop: 37.11.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

us stock market
trade stock