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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/02/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$82.64; +1.80; optionable): Security hardware and software. Splits 2:1 after the close Wednesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Ascending base. BCSI splits after the close Wednesday, and we are looking to get a move toward the split and then afterwards as well. We want to see the move before we move in, so if it gives us the move tomorrow, fine; if it doesn't, then post-split. Looking for BCSI to give us another run as it makes the break from its 6 week ascending base.
Volume: 611.17K Avg Volume: 939.317K
BUY POINT: $83.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$95.95 Stop=$80.55
POSITION: IYU AP - Jan. $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
New Post-Spit Plays:
Play Date: 10/02/2007
ESRX (Express Scripts--$55.81; +1.07; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Taking another look at ESRX as it prepared the next breakout. It has formed a short reverse head and shoulders the past 5 weeks, kind of the handle to an 11 week base. Used the 50 day EMA (53.15) as support the past month, indicating the bigger buyers were in the game, picking up shares at key support. Looking for a solid break higher to step in.
Volume: 2.102M Avg Volume: 2.403M
BUY POINT: $56.31 Volume=3.2M Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.22
POSITION: XTQ AK - Jan. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Leader:
Play Date: 10/02/2007
FRO (Frontline Ltd.--$50.89; +1.68; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fro.html
EARNINGS: 11-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FRO is starting the breakout move from its 12 week base, nicely formed, using the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA as support. A solid break higher mid-September set the right side, then a low volume lateral move as the 10 day EMA (48.85) caught up to it. Then a nice, high volume upside break Tuesday started the move. Excellent action. Ready to run higher, and ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 2.462M Avg Volume: 1.37M
BUY POINT: $51.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.69
POSITION: FRO BJ - Feb. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fro.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
NILE (Blue Nile--$97.25; +1.25; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. NILE made us some good money on its last run in September, and it has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (92.82) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain. This tests the move out of its 5 week double bottom base formed using the 50 day EMA as support for the legs. Volume was up as it bounced Tuesday, indicating it is ready to run higher.
Volume: 548.153K Avg Volume: 533.218K
BUY POINT: $98.32 Volume=600K Target=$112.95 Stop=$92.68
POSITION: JWU AT - Jan. $100c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nile.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/02/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$73.98; +2.08; optionable): Heavy equipment (cranes, draglines)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The industrial stocks (heavy equipment, electronics, etc.) are setting up to make a breakout move, and BUCY is right up there as well. It is currently working on the handle to an 11 week base, using the 10 day EMA (71.23) as support. May take a couple more sessions to complete the handle, but looking solid as it sets up for the move. Just waiting for the move through the buy point to get into the play.
Volume: 441.862K Avg Volume: 711.691K
BUY POINT: $74.48 Volume=1M Target=$85.95 Stop=$70.89
POSITION: HBU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$79.64; +0.08; optionable): Heavy equipment, machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After the housing issues hit CAT went on vacation after it hit a peak in July. It formed the current 11 week base, working through it on low volume. Showed some better trade as it moved off the bottom in mid-September, and that was just fine. Now it needs to show us some strong volume as it continues higher and makes the breakout. Set up nicely and now needs to show us the run higher.
Volume: 5.05M Avg Volume: 6.964M
BUY POINT: $80.31 Volume=10M Target=$90.45 Stop=$78.31
POSITION: CAT AP - Jan. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cat.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/29/2007
CRDN (Ceradyne--$77.17; -0.47; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still look for some volume to get CRDN going. Good price jump Monday, but no trade and a modest loss Tuesday . . . on low volume. Looking for some more upside . . . volume on the move. To recap: Starting to work on a handle to its nicely formed 11 week base. Rallied to a new high in July then needed the rest to set up for the next run. This base is doing just that. Looking for a couple more sessions or so of lateral move and then a break higher on rising volume.
Volume: 311.973K Avg Volume: 629.678K
BUY POINT: New: $77.85 (orig. $76.88) Volume=950K Target=$89.95 Stop=$73.65
POSITION: AUE AO - Jan. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
Play Date: 09/27/2007
SYK (Stryker--$70.54; +0.41; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
EARNINGS: 10-17-07
STATUS: Cup. Volume moved above average Tuesday as SYK surged higher, but it could not hold the move, closing well off the high. That kept us from moving in. If it continues higher from here it is a buy. To recap: SYK has worked through a 24 week base and is trying to make a higher low above the 50 day EMA to set up a breakout move that will take it to an all-time high. Has been somewhat choppy the past couple of weeks so we want to see a strong break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 1.894M Avg Volume: 1.517M
BUY POINT: On a move from the close (orig. $69.48) Volume=2.3M Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: SYK AN - Jan. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$62.81; +0.01; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (61.92) on the low and then rebounding to close flat. Still a very nice set up for the breakout move. Looking good. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA (61.48). May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 2.627M Avg Volume: 4.182M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/27/2007
SJR (Shaw Communications--$25.30; +0.29; no options): Cable TV sessions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjr.html
EARNINGS: 10-12-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Bounced higher toward the buy point, but no volume to really drive it yet. Still a solid pattern, still ready to make the breakout move. Just need to see some more volume. To recap: Taking another look at SJR as it has set up better, forming a handle the past week to its 8 week base. Used the 50 day EMA as support for the base, showing that buyers stepped in at that key level to support the stock and accumulate some shares. Very low trade so want to see some volume jump as SJR makes the break higher and moves to a new high.
Volume: 196.5K Avg Volume: 458.584K
BUY POINT: $25.65 Volume=690K Target=$30.55 Stop=$24.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sjr.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$53.26; -0.12; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still looking solid for the break higher, showing a nice tight doji with tail on the candlestick pattern Tuesday. Looks ripe, but has to show the break higher on some volume. To recap: VSEA made us some great money in 2006 and earlier this year. It got the dips in August, but it found bottom and moved to a new high to start September. It has since made a very low volume, orderly pullback as the 50 day EMA (50.87) rose to meet it. Looks to have settled down at this point and is ready to make the move higher. When it makes the break on strong volume that is when we move in.
Volume: 796.443K Avg Volume: 1.716M
BUY POINT: $55.12 Volume=2.6M Target=$63.45 Stop=$52.35
POSITION: UES AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/01/2007
FLS (Flowserve--$78.91; +1.03; optionable): Flow control equipment for oil and gas, power generation, water treatment, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Tuesday but volume fell off the cliff. Decided to see if this move has any staying power. If FLS can move up from here on a bit more volume, it is a buy. To recap: Volume jumped to end last week and FLS jumped higher and made a tentative breakout from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base. Good volume on the break higher, and even better volume Monday as it bounced off the 10 day EMA test made on Friday. Looking for solid volume to continue as FLS pushes higher off of this test. That will give us the buy as it shows the buyers still want it even at a higher price following the breakout move.
Volume: 281.4K Avg Volume: 547.386K
BUY POINT: Continued move higher on rising trade (orig. $78.35) Volume=850K Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.95
POSITION: FLS AO - Jan. $75c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fls.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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