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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/03/2007
CBEY (CBeyond Communications--$42.32; -1.32; optionable): Managed VOIP services to small and medium business
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbey.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. CBY surged higher to start the week, making the breakout move from its 10 week cup with handle base. Strong volume on the surge, and it was strong again Tuesday as CBEY surged higher but then gave most of the move back. It tested Wednesday on lower volume, tapping close to the 10 day EMA (41.43) on the session low. The breakout took CBEY to a new all-time high, and after this test we are looking for the breakout move to resume. That is our entry point on this strong stock with solid fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 372.602K Avg Volume: 273.958K
BUY POINT: $42.68 Volume=400K Target=$50.95 Stop=$41.28
POSITION: QYN LH - Dec. $40c (65 delta, 99 oi) or QYN CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbey.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$153.56; -1.09; optionable): Energy exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Big surge the last week of September as ICE gapped higher to finish forming the second leg in its 11 week base. It then moved laterally on lower volume the past week, trying a break Tuesday but coming back into the handle. This is part of a larger 7 month base on base pattern (Cup with handle and then the current double bottom with handle), and that type of pattern tends to work out the sellers and set up the strong run higher. Just waiting for volume to return and give us the upside buy signal. Set up very nicely to make the break higher, and we are ready to move in as it makes the move.
Volume: 1.468M Avg Volume: 2.725M
BUY POINT: $155.88 Volume=3M Target=$177.95 Stop=$151.39
POSITION: IHH AK - Jan. $155c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
NM (Navios Maritime Holdings--$13.63; -0.32; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nm.html
EARNINGS: Early September
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another shipping stock that enjoyed a strong run February to July, and is now putting together a nice base, consolidating the prior move and laying the foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Nice 11 week base in progress, currently working on the handle, the lateral move where the impatient sell out. May take two to three more days to finish the handle, but the way shippers have been shipping up and out, we want to be ready to move in when it makes its move.
Volume: 825.7K Avg Volume: 1.26M
BUY POINT: $14.31 Volume=1.7M Target=$17.45 Stop=$13.45
POSITION: NM LV - Dec. $12.50c (67 delta, 99 OI) or NM CV - Mar. $12.50c (low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nm.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
RESP (Respironics--$49.45; +0.88; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume has swelled the past four sessions as RESP came off a higher low at the 18 day EMA (48.27). Wednesday it finally started the break, moving out of its 9 week base on a second consecutive session of above average volume. Great action and a great pattern ready to give us a great run.
Volume: 478.643K Avg Volume: 377.743K
BUY POINT: $49.57 Volume=553K Target=$56.85 Stop=$47.97
POSITION: RBQ AI - Jan. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/resp.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
WBMD (WebMD Health Holdings--$54.75; -0.30; optionable): Health information services to consumers, physicians, etc. online and via publications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbmd.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup with handle. You can call this a 6 month cup with handle or a 7 month reverse head and shoulders; either way it is a nice, steady base that has built the foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Nice consolidation of the December to February run, and this has set the groundwork for the next breakout and run. Volume has swelled nicely the past three sessions, jumping well above average Wednesday. Strong money flow is moving sharply higher ahead of price. Looking for a strong break higher to start the play.
Volume: 289.243K Avg Volume: 150.977K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=250K Target=$66.45 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: QWB AL - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbmd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/01/2007
ALGN (Align Tech--$27.11; +0.37; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/algn.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After the day of rest Tuesday, ALGN tapped the 10 day EMA (25.99) on the Wednesday low and then rebounded to post a modest gain on the session. That left it at the Monday high and still in excellent shape to make the breakout for us. To recap: Volume was up last week as ALGN bounced higher and through the 50 day EMA, and it was up again Monday as it broke higher once more, clearing the July consolidation range. This move is taking it out of its 10 week base as it follows some strong money flow toward a new high. Strong move and looking to enter as it continues to run higher.
Volume: 693.179K Avg Volume: 1.18M
BUY POINT: $27.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.25 Stop=$25.89
POSITION: CUA AE - Jan. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/algn.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$82.92; +0.28; optionable): Security hardware and software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Couldn't really put it together Wednesday, but still looking for more buyers as BCSI trades post-split and is more of a 'value' to investors. To recap: Nice 6 week ascending base over the 18 day EMA, and looking for BCSI to make us a break higher trading post-split.
Volume: 573.003K Avg Volume: 942.908K
BUY POINT: $41.73 Volume=1.2M Target=$47.98 Stop=$40.27
POSITION: IYU AH - Jan. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$78.56; -1.08; optionable): Heavy equipment, machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Fell back to the 90 day SMA (78.43) Wednesday on lower, below average volume. Still forming the handle and setting up for the breakout. To recap: After the housing issues hit CAT went on vacation after it hit a peak in July. It formed the current 11 week base, working through it on low volume. Showed some better trade as it moved off the bottom in mid-September, and that was just fine. Now it needs to show us some strong volume as it continues higher and makes the breakout. Set up nicely and now needs to show us the run higher.
Volume: 4.61M Avg Volume: 6.96M
BUY POINT: $80.31 Volume=10M Target=$90.45 Stop=$78.31
POSITION: CAT AP - Jan. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cat.html
Play Date: 10/01/2007
FLS (Flowserve--$77.28; -1.63; optionable): Flow control equipment for oil and gas, power generation, water treatment, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Still coming back, falling toward the 10 day EMA (76.72) on rising but still below average volume. Looking for a test of the 10 day and then a resumption of the breakout move. To recap: Volume jumped to end last week and FLS jumped higher and made a tentative breakout from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base. Good volume on the break higher, and even better volume Monday as it bounced off the 10 day EMA test made on Friday. Looking for solid volume to continue as FLS pushes higher off of this test. That will give us the buy as it shows the buyers still want it even at a higher price following the breakout move.
Volume: 416.8K Avg Volume: 540.682K
BUY POINT: $78.35 Volume=850K Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.95
POSITION: FLS AO - Jan. $75c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fls.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
NILE (Blue Nile--$94.99; -2.26; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a nice test, trying to move higher Wednesday, but volume was lower and it turned down on the session. Still a nice test of the breakout move, and still ready to move in as NILE jumps higher and continues the breakout move. To recap: NILE made us some good money on its last run in September, and it has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (92.82) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain. This tests the move out of its 5 week double bottom base formed using the 50 day EMA as support for the legs. Volume was up as it bounced Tuesday, indicating it is ready to run higher.
Volume: 410.014K Avg Volume: 536.008K
BUY POINT: $98.32 Volume=600K Target=$112.95 Stop=$92.68
POSITION: JWU AT - Jan. $100c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nile.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$61.71; -1.10; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped lower with the energy sector, but volume remained low and it XTO easily hung in the handle to its base. Steady, tightening range, and just waiting for it to show us the breakout if it will. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA. May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 2.67M Avg Volume: 4.151M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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