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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
Part 2 follows part 3 tonight.
THE PLAYS:
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 10/04/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$64.00; +2.23; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Flat base. While many chip stocks head lower, WFR is heading higher the past week and on nicely improved upside volume. Cleared the September high on Thursday as it moves toward the top of its 6 month base. Showing excellent relative strength to its peers, and on a solid price move coupled with strong volume it is a buy.
Volume: 3.799M Avg Volume: 4.491M
BUY POINT: $64.32 Volume=5.5M Target=$73.95 Stop=$61.18
POSITION: WFR AL - Jan. $60c (67 delta) or WFR AM - Jan. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 10/04/2007
OIH (Oil Services ETF--$193.96; +1.36; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OIH has formed a two week flying plateau as the 18 day EMA (189.93) moved higher to catch up with its great breakout move from September that took it out of an 8 week double bottom with handle base. Nice low volume as it moved laterally to test the move, indicating no sellers. Like the Thursday action as OIH tested down to the 18 day EMA (189.93) intraday and then rebounded positive on rising volume. Looks super and ready to break higher from this consolidation for the next run. That gives us our next entry point.
Volume: 7.112M Avg Volume: 9.141M
BUY POINT: $195.22 Volume=10M Target=$209.95 Stop=$192.45
POSITION: ODL AS - Jan. $195c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oih.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/04/2007
BHP (BHP Billiton--$78.26; +0.08; optionable): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Breakout test. Explosive upside move in September on the announcement of a huge gold find made us some very nice money as the news powered BHP higher after it broke out from its 9 week reverse head and shoulders base. Powerful move and then a nice, easy, lower volume test this week. It tapped the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and then bounced to close modestly positive. Nice test and looking to move in as BHP continues its breakout run higher.
Volume: 3.311M Avg Volume: 3.968M
BUY POINT: $78.65 Volume=4M Target=$93.95 Stop=$76.38
POSITION: BHP AP - Jan. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2007
DVN (Devon Energy--$85.82; +2.19; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dvn.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Volume was up on Thursday as DVN made the break from a 15 week base. Volume was not huge, but it was definitely higher as it made the move to a new high. Nicely formed base has put in its time, and with money flow leading the way higher DVN looks ready to give us a nice breakout run that can make us some solid coin.
Volume: 3.29M Avg Volume: 3.438M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=4M Target=$98.95 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: DVN AQ - Jan. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dvn.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/02/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$75.13; +1.21; optionable): Heavy equipment (cranes, draglines)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started higher Thursday and so did volume, but it was not much of a start so we waited to see if it improves. Expect it to do that once the jobs report is put to bed. To recap: The industrial stocks (heavy equipment, electronics, etc.) are setting up to make a breakout move, and BUCY is right up there as well. It is currently working on the handle to an 11 week base, using the 10 day EMA (71.23) as support. May take a couple more sessions to complete the handle, but looking solid as it sets up for the move. Just waiting for the move through the buy point to get into the play.
Volume: 427.949K Avg Volume: 705.695K
BUY POINT: $74.48 Volume=1M Target=$85.95 Stop=$70.89
POSITION: HBU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$78.64; +0.08; optionable): Heavy equipment, machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good shakeout Thursday, tapping at the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounding to close flat and just over the 90 day SMA. Nice shakeout and still ready to make the break higher. Just being patient and waiting for the move. To recap: After the housing issues hit CAT went on vacation after it hit a peak in July. It formed the current 11 week base, working through it on low volume. Showed some better trade as it moved off the bottom in mid-September, and that was just fine. Now it needs to show us some strong volume as it continues higher and makes the breakout. Set up nicely and now needs to show us the run higher.
Volume: 4.306M Avg Volume: 6.96M
BUY POINT: $80.31 Volume=10M Target=$90.45 Stop=$78.31
POSITION: CAT AP - Jan. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cat.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$62.57; +0.86; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice action Thursday as XTO reached down to the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close positive and on the best volume in three weeks. It is locked and loaded to make the move and now just needs to show it and we will move in. Very nice action. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA (61.48). May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 3.746M Avg Volume: 4.151M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/03/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$64.40; +0.61; optionable): Chinese education and training for executives
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: 10-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower Thursday as the China stocks were again weak early, but recovered to close positive and on rising, average trade. Looks ready to continue the breakout run after this initial test. Not bad. To recap: After surging out of a 9 week double bottom with handle base in mid-September, EDU peaked to start the week with a gap higher to 77. It has since faded on lower volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (62.44) on the Wednesday low and then rebounding to post a modest loss. Nice below average volume as it makes the test of near support. Very strong and looking to move in as EDU makes the next break higher in its breakout run.
Volume: 382.8K Avg Volume: 400.442K
BUY POINT: $64.76 Volume=550K Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: EDU AM - Jan. $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/edu.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
FRO (Frontline Ltd.--$49.84; -0.17; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fro.html
EARNINGS: 11-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume test Wednesday and Thursday (though still above average) following the strong Tuesday break higher on very solid trade. Nice test and looks ready to resume along with the market. Nice. To recap: FRO started the breakout move from its nicely formed 12 week base on Tuesday, using the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA as support. A solid break higher mid-September set the right side, then a low volume lateral move as the 10 day EMA (48.85) caught up to it. Then a nice, high volume upside break Tuesday started the move. Excellent action. Ready to run higher, and ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 1.421M Avg Volume: 1.378M
BUY POINT: $51.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.69
POSITION: FRO BJ - Feb. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fro.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$154.20; +0.64; optionable): Energy exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally on low volume as ICE forms a nice handle or ice bridge on low volume. Just being patient and letting it set up and show us the breakout. To recap: Big surge the last week of September as ICE gapped higher to finish forming the second leg in its 11 week base. It then moved laterally on lower volume the past week, trying a break Tuesday but coming back into the handle. This is part of a larger 7 month base on base pattern (Cup with handle and then the current double bottom with handle), and that type of pattern tends to work out the sellers and set up the strong run higher. Just waiting for volume to return and give us the upside buy signal. Set up very nicely to make the break higher, and we are ready to move in as it makes the move.
Volume: 1.192M Avg Volume: 2.725M
BUY POINT: $155.88 Volume=3M Target=$177.95 Stop=$151.39
POSITION: IHH AK - Jan. $155c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ice.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
NILE (Blue Nile--$93.55; -1.44; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test of the 18 day EMA (93.10), coming back to test after looking ready on Tuesday with a nice bounce off this support. No problem with a bit more testing. Just want to see the volume surge as it continues higher off this support. To recap: NILE made us some good money on its last run in September, and it has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (92.82) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain. This tests the move out of its 5 week double bottom base formed using the 50 day EMA as support for the legs. Volume was up as it bounced Tuesday, indicating it is ready to run higher.
Volume: 357.757K Avg Volume: 536.008K
BUY POINT: $98.32 Volume=600K Target=$112.95 Stop=$92.68
POSITION: JWU AT - Jan. $100c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nile.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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