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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2007
AMX (America Movil--$65.50; +2.10; optionable): Latin American wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Taking another run at AMX after it sold on some rising volume midweek, but then recovered off the 18 day EMA off the 18 day EMA (63.51), bouncing higher on the best volume in three weeks Friday. This move is taking AMX out of a 15 week base toward a new all-time high. After a solid April to early July run from the last breakout, this base is setting up a nice foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Solid volume Friday as it bounced off near support and heads toward a new breakout.
Volume: 7.116M Avg Volume: 5.849M
BUY POINT: $65.88 Volume=7.5M Target=$75.95 Stop=$63.92
POSITION: AMX AM - Jan. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$37.23; +1.08; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a 4 month rest and basing period, the independent oil and gas stocks are shaping up for a new breakout move. COG is one doing just that. After a nice run from March into June it has formed the current 15 week base. Volume surged to end last week, and on Friday COG jumped higher on the best volume in 2 months. Money flow is plowing higher and leading the way for price to follow. Ready to move in as COG continues the run higher.
Volume: 1.331M Avg Volume: 873.574K
BUY POINT: $37.57 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: COG AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cog.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$78.00; +1.87; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 2.198M Avg Volume: 2.34M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delga) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
OMCL (Omnicell--$28.95; -0.05; optionable): Medication control and patient safety solutions for acute care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNIGNS: 10-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. OMCL made us some very nice green on its breakout and run higher from its 15 week cup with handle base. After the big run it surged on Monday and started to reverse so we took some strong gain off the table. It checked up, however, and held at the 10 day EMA (28.56) on the Thursday and Friday lows as volume tapered off to below average. This is just the second test of the breakout, and that leaves another 2 to 3 more bounces up off this near support ahead. That gives OMCL plenty of room upside to make us some more solid gain as it continues its breakout run.
Volume: 372.455K Avg Volume: 512.221K
BUY POINT: $29.45 Volume=750K Target=$35.45 Stop=$28.38
POSITION: UMK AF - Jan. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$148.79; +2.52; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. PCP is another stock that enjoyed a strong run in 2006 through July 2007 and then corrected. Not much of a correction, however, as PCP formed an 8 week base and then broke higher in the last half of September. It rallied to 150, then came back to test last week, tapping at the 18 day EMA (143.53) on the lows but then rebounding to close above the 10 day EMA. Friday it posted a nice gain off that near support on rising though still below average volume. A super set up to move higher, and ready to move in as PCP continues its precision climb higher.
Volume: 1.357M Avg Volume: 1.451M
BUY POINT: $150.05 Volume=2M Target=$172.45 Stop=$146.05
POSITION: PCP LI - Dec. $145c (61 delta) or PCP CJ - Mar. $150c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcp.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$28.81; +1.58; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Flying plateau. VIP is another leading stock we are looking to move into once more. It is volatile and shook us out last week as it tested lower and our trailing stop kicked in. It rebounded, and on Friday gapped higher on the best trade in over a month. This took it out of its three week lateral consolidation that formed to consolidate the late August breakout from its 7 week double bottom with handle. Looks as if the consolidation period is over and we are ready to move back into VIP as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 5.166M Avg Volume: 3.387M
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: VIQ AZ - Jan. $27c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vip.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/03/2007
CBEY (CBeyond Communications--$43.02; +0.80; optionable): Managed VOIP services to small and medium business
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbey.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Big reach lower Friday and then a recovery for a gain as CBEY looks to have completed its breakout test. Nice set up for the move higher. To recap: CBEY surged higher to start last week, making the breakout move from its 10 week cup with handle base. Strong volume on the surge, and it was strong again Tuesday as CBEY surged higher but then gave most of the move back. It tested Wednesday and Thursday on lower volume, tapping close to the 10 day EMA. The breakout took CBEY to a new all-time high, and after this test we are looking for the breakout move to resume. That is our entry point on this strong stock with solid fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 141.968K Avg Volume: 271.976K
BUY POINT: $42.68 Volume=400K Target=$50.95 Stop=$41.28
POSITION: QYN LH - Dec. $40c (65 delta, 99 oi) or QYN CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbey.html
Play Date: 10/04/2007
DVN (Devon Energy--$86.26; +0.44; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dvn.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Stretched the big Thursday move, but no volume. If it continues higher this week it is a buy. To recap: Volume was up on Thursday as DVN made the break from a 15 week base. Volume was not huge, but it was definitely higher as it made the move to a new high. Nicely formed base has put in its time, and with money flow leading the way higher DVN looks ready to give us a nice breakout run that can make us some solid coin.
Volume: 2.591M Avg Volume: 3.426M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=4M Target=$98.95 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: DVN AQ - Jan. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dvn.html
Play Date: 10/01/2007
FLS (Flowserve--$78.80; +2.12; optionable): Flow control equipment for oil and gas, power generation, water treatment, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Good break higher Friday off the 10 day EMA, but volume was not there yet, still lagging well below average. Looks super, and on some better trade it is a buy as it continues higher. To recap: Volume jumped a week back and FLS jumped higher and made a tentative breakout from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base. Good volume on the break higher, and even better volume Monday as it bounced off the 10 day EMA test made on Friday. Looking for solid volume to continue as FLS pushes higher off of this test. That will give us the buy as it shows the buyers still want it even at a higher price following the breakout move.
Volume: 352.4K Avg Volume: 539.483K
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on better volume (orig. $78.35) Volume=850K Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.95
POSITION: FLS AO - Jan. $75c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fls.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
NILE (Blue Nile--$94.32; +0.77; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA (93.23) as NILE continues its excellent breakout test on that nice low volume. It is ready to make the move; we are just waiting for it to start. To recap: NILE made us some good money on its last run in September, and it has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (93.23) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain. This tests the move out of its 5 week double bottom base formed using the 50 day EMA as support for the legs. Volume was up as it bounced Tuesday, indicating it is ready to run higher.
Volume: 329.821K Avg Volume: 536.426K
BUY POINT: $95.88 Volume=600K Target=$112.95 Stop=$92.97
POSITION: JWU AT - Jan. $100c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nile.html
Play Date: 10/04/2007
OIH (Oil Services Hldrs Trust--$192.60; -1.36; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally above the 18 day EMA, refusing to give any ground as it consolidates the nice break higher. Still looking to add positions as it makes the next break higher. To recap: OIH has formed a two week flying plateau as the 18 day EMA (189.93) moved higher to catch up with its great breakout move from September that took it out of an 8 week double bottom with handle base. Nice low volume as it moved laterally to test the move, indicating no sellers. Like the Thursday action as OIH tested down to the 18 day EMA (189.93) intraday and then rebounded positive on rising volume. Looks super and ready to break higher from this consolidation for the next run. That gives us our next entry point.
Volume: 6.566M Avg Volume: 9.171M
BUY POINT: $195.22 Volume=10M Target=$209.95 Stop=$192.45
POSITION: ODL AS - Jan. $195c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oih.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
WBMD (WebMD Healgh Holdings--$55.08; +1.06; optionable): Health information services to consumers, physicians, etc. online and via publications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbmd.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup with handle. Some solid volume spikes last week on the upside sessions with another one on Friday has us looking for the breakout from WBMD this week. Friday was a nice shakeout, a reach lower below the 18 day EMA and then a rebound to close positive on strong, above average volume. Looks ready. To recap: You can call this a 6 month cup with handle or a 7 month reverse head and shoulders; either way it is a nice, steady base that has built the foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Nice consolidation of the December to February run, and this has set the groundwork for the next breakout and run. Volume has swelled nicely the past three sessions, jumping well above average Wednesday. Strong money flow is moving sharply higher ahead of price. Looking for a strong break higher to start the play.
Volume: 188.78K Avg Volume: 152.967K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=250K Target=$66.45 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: QWB AL - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbmd.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$62.69; +0.12; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent set up for the break higher. Nice volume bump Thursday, and it looks to be just a matter of time before it makes the breakout move from this nice, tight consolidation. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA. May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 2.366M Avg Volume: 4.155M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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