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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/06/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$37.23; +1.08; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a 4 month rest and basing period, the independent oil and gas stocks are shaping up for a new breakout move. COG is one doing just that. After a nice run from March into June it has formed the current 15 week base. Volume surged to end last week, and on Friday COG jumped higher on the best volume in 2 months. Money flow is plowing higher and leading the way for price to follow. Ready to move in as COG continues the run higher.
Volume: 1.331M Avg Volume: 873.574K
BUY POINT: $37.57 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: COG AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$28.81; +1.58; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Flying plateau. VIP is another leading stock we are looking to move into once more. It is volatile and shook us out last week as it tested lower and our trailing stop kicked in. It rebounded, and on Friday gapped higher on the best trade in over a month. This took it out of its three week lateral consolidation that formed to consolidate the late August breakout from its 7 week double bottom with handle. Looks as if the consolidation period is over and we are ready to move back into VIP as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 5.166M Avg Volume: 3.387M
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: VIQ AZ - Jan. $27c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
YUM (Yum! Brands--$34.35; +0.63; optionable): KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver's salt planks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
EARNINGS: 10-8-07 after the close
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Friday as YUM came off the test of the 18 day EMA (63.51) that acted as support and the right shoulder to its 15 week base. Nice action heading into the earnings on Monday, and the pattern suggests it is going to use that to make the break. The aggressive play is to move in ahead of earnings; if it moves higher on some good trade we will look to start a partial position and let it run into the earnings results. After that we will look to move in on a test if it bounces higher on the earnings.
Volume: 2.315M Avg Volume: 2.796M
BUY POINT: $34.78 Volume=4.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.45
POSITION: YUM AZ - Jan. $32.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yum.html
Leader:
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$78.00; +1.87; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 2.198M Avg Volume: 2.34M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delta) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BUCY: Early November.
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/06/2007
AMX (America Movil--$65.50; +2.10; optionable): Latin American wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Taking another run at AMX after it sold on some rising volume midweek, but then recovered off the 18 day EMA off the 18 day EMA (63.51), bouncing higher on the best volume in three weeks Friday. This move is taking AMX out of a 15 week base toward a new all-time high. After a solid April to early July run from the last breakout, this base is setting up a nice foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Solid volume Friday as it bounced off near support and heads toward a new breakout.
Volume: 7.116M Avg Volume: 5.849M
BUY POINT: $65.88 Volume=7.5M Target=$75.95 Stop=$63.92
POSITION: AMX AM - Jan. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$148.79; +2.52; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. PCP is another stock that enjoyed a strong run in 2006 through July 2007 and then corrected. Not much of a correction, however, as PCP formed an 8 week base and then broke higher in the last half of September. It rallied to 150, then came back to test last week, tapping at the 18 day EMA (143.53) on the lows but then rebounding to close above the 10 day EMA. Friday it posted a nice gain off that near support on rising though still below average volume. A super set up to move higher, and ready to move in as PCP continues its precision climb higher.
Volume: 1.357M Avg Volume: 1.451M
BUY POINT: $150.05 Volume=2M Target=$172.45 Stop=$146.05
POSITION: PCP LI - Dec. $145c (61 delta) or PCP CJ - Mar. $150c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$27.53; +0.62; optionable): IT services and process outsourcing (India)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom. SAY broke from an 11 week double bottom last week, making the initial move Wednesday but giving it all back that session. Volume remained strong Thursday and Friday as SAY held and then continued the break higher. A solid leading stock that is looking for a new high on this move. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.871M Avg Volume: 1.289M
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$32.85 Stop=$26.48
POSITION: SAY AE - Jan. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/say.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/04/2007
DVN (Devon Energy--$86.26; +0.44; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dvn.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Stretched the big Thursday move, but no volume. If it continues higher this week it is a buy. To recap: Volume was up on Thursday as DVN made the break from a 15 week base. Volume was not huge, but it was definitely higher as it made the move to a new high. Nicely formed base has put in its time, and with money flow leading the way higher DVN looks ready to give us a nice breakout run that can make us some solid coin.
Volume: 2.591M Avg Volume: 3.426M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=4M Target=$98.95 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: DVN AQ - Jan. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dvn.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$62.69; +0.12; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent set up for the break higher. Nice volume bump Thursday, and it looks to be just a matter of time before it makes the breakout move from this nice, tight consolidation. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA. May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 2.366M Avg Volume: 4.155M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/01/2007
FLS (Flowserve--$78.80; +2.12; optionable): Flow control equipment for oil and gas, power generation, water treatment, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Good break higher Friday off the 10 day EMA, but volume was not there yet, still lagging well below average. Looks super, and on some better trade it is a buy as it continues higher. To recap: Volume jumped a week back and FLS jumped higher and made a tentative breakout from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base. Good volume on the break higher, and even better volume Monday as it bounced off the 10 day EMA test made on Friday. Looking for solid volume to continue as FLS pushes higher off of this test. That will give us the buy as it shows the buyers still want it even at a higher price following the breakout move.
Volume: 352.4K Avg Volume: 539.483K
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on better volume (orig. $78.35) Volume=850K Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.95
POSITION: FLS AO - Jan. $75c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fls.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
FRO (Frontline Ltd.--$50.63; +0.79; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fro.html
EARNINGS: 11-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Friday but volume was below average as it tested the Monday high up at 51 before fading slightly. In great position to make the breakout and give us a good entry point. To recap: FRO started the breakout move from its nicely formed 12 week base on Tuesday, using the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA as support. A solid break higher mid-September set the right side, then a low volume lateral move as the 10 day EMA (48.85) caught up to it. Then a nice, high volume upside break Tuesday started the move. Excellent action. Ready to run higher, and ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 1.172M Avg Volume: 1.384M
BUY POINT: $51.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.69
POSITION: FRO BJ - Feb. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fro.html
Play Date: 10/02/2007
NILE (Blue Nile--$94.32; +0.77; optionable): Online diamond sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA (93.23) as NILE continues its excellent breakout test on that nice low volume. It is ready to make the move; we are just waiting for it to start. To recap: NILE made us some good money on its last run in September, and it has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (93.23) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain. This tests the move out of its 5 week double bottom base formed using the 50 day EMA as support for the legs. Volume was up as it bounced Tuesday, indicating it is ready to run higher.
Volume: 329.821K Avg Volume: 536.426K
BUY POINT: $98.32 Volume=600K Target=$112.95 Stop=$92.68
POSITION: JWU AT - Jan. $100c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nile.html
Play Date: 10/04/2007
OIH (Oil Services Hldrs Trust--$192.60; -1.36; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally above the 18 day EMA, refusing to give any ground as it consolidates the nice break higher. Still looking to add positions as it makes the next break higher. To recap: OIH has formed a two week flying plateau as the 18 day EMA (189.93) moved higher to catch up with its great breakout move from September that took it out of an 8 week double bottom with handle base. Nice low volume as it moved laterally to test the move, indicating no sellers. Like the Thursday action as OIH tested down to the 18 day EMA (189.93) intraday and then rebounded positive on rising volume. Looks super and ready to break higher from this consolidation for the next run. That gives us our next entry point.
Volume: 6.566M Avg Volume: 9.171M
BUY POINT: $195.22 Volume=10M Target=$209.95 Stop=$192.45
POSITION: ODL AS - Jan. $195c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oih.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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