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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/08/2007
BW (Brush Engineered--$52.44; +0.12; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bw.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice handle setting up over the 18 day EMA (50.37) the past two weeks as BW makes the final test and shakeout before it is ready to breakout from its 23 week base. Nice run in late 2006 and early 2007 to a new high, and after that it needed to consolidate to lay the foundation for the next run. It has built back up and is trading on nice quiet volume in the handle, just what you want to see before a higher volume breakout move. A nice technical pattern to go along with its very solid fundamentals that are some of the top in the market in terms of growth.
Volume: 200.2K Avg Volume: 468.738K
BUY POINT: $53.22 Volume=700K Target=$63.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: BW CI - Mar. $50c (65 delta, 137 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bw.html
Play Date: 10/08/2007
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$7.75; 0.00; no options): eSolutions for government entity benefits programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Ascending base. EGOV is starting the breakout from its 8 week base, looking for a 4 year high if it can get some steam behind it. The niche is a good one: helping government entities cut their benefit costs; that seems to be a steady client. Strong 4:1 accumulation in the pattern shows all buying as it set up for the breakout move. Strong volume to start the month some solid trade Friday as it cleared the August highs. Looking to move in as EGOV continues the breakout move.
Volume: 49.664K Avg Volume: 179.415K
BUY POINT: $7.96 Volume=185K Target=$9.48 Stop=$7.43
POSITION: - Stock (no enough open interests in options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 10/08/2007
HLIT (Harmonic--$11.20; +0.46; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlit.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HLIT broke higher in mid-September from a 7 month double bottom with handle as it works on making a 5 year high. It just made its second test of the breakout coming back to the 18 day EMA (10.58) on the Thursday and Friday intraday lows. Monday it showed a nice strong price move on solid though not blowout volume. Looks ready to continue its breakout move, and as volume continues to push it higher that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.492M Avg Volume: 1.749M
BUY POINT: $11.32 Volume=2M Target=$13.85 Stop=$10.55
POSITION: LOQ AB - Jan. $10c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlit.html
Play Date: 10/08/2007
LZ (Lubrizol--$68.07; +1.17; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lz.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume was up though still below average Monday as LZ posted a solid price move and moved close to the breakout from its 17 week base. As with many stocks, LZ enjoyed a strong end to 2006 and a solid early 2007 and needed a consolidation to rest and set up the next move. Nice base has done than and now we look for a bit more volume from LZ as it moves to the breakout and the new high.
Volume: 394.3K Avg Volume: 545.097K
BUY POINT: $68.55 Volume=818K Target=$78.95 Stop=$65.94
POSITION: LZ LM - Dec. $65c (64 delta, 177 OI) or LZ CN - Mar. $70c (50 delta, 86 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lz.html
Play Date: 10/08/2007
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$12.37; +0.18; optionable): Semiconductor packaging and testing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice mid-September break higher from a 10 week double bottom with handle base took SPIL up to 12.50 to end September. It has since come back to make the first test of the breakout, holding at the 18 day EMA (11.80) last week on the lows. It bounced off that near support Friday on some very good, above average volume, and continued higher Monday though on much lower volume. Looking solid and we are ready to move in as SPIL continues the breakout move.
Volume: 1.255M Avg Volume: 1.846M
BUY POINT: $12.57 Volume=2.3M Target=$15.11 Stop=$11.74
POSITION: SUU AV - Jan. $12.50c (57 delta, 177 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/04/2007
DVN (Devon Energy--$84.61; -1.65; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dvn.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Tested back with the rest of the energy stocks, but very light volume as it tapped the 10 day EMA on the low. Nice test of the break higher, and a rebound on volume is when we move in. To recap: Volume was up on Thursday as DVN made the break from a 15 week base. Volume was not huge, but it was definitely higher as it made the move to a new high. Nicely formed base has put in its time, and with money flow leading the way higher DVN looks ready to give us a nice breakout run that can make us some solid coin.
Volume: 2.16M Avg Volume: 3.432M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=4M Target=$98.95 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: DVN AQ - Jan. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dvn.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$76.90; -1.10; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. Testing the 10 day EMA, showing a nice tight doji at that near support; down on the session but not bad action. Nice rest and solid test is setting up the next move in the breakout. To recap: MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 1.149M Avg Volume: 2.36M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delga) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
OMCL (Omnicell--$28.85; -0.10; optionable): Medication control and patient safety solutions for acute care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
EARNINGS: 10-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Deep reach down to the 18 day EMA on the Monday low but then a nice recovery to flat on rising, above average volume. Great shakeout that is ready to send OMCL on its next move higher. To recap: OMCL made us some very nice green on its breakout and run higher from its 15 week cup with handle base. After the big run it surged on Monday and started to reverse so we took some strong gain off the table. It checked up, however, and held at the 10 day EMA (28.56) on the Thursday and Friday lows as volume tapered off to below average. This is just the second test of the breakout, and that leaves another 2 to 3 more bounces up off this near support ahead. That gives OMCL plenty of room upside to make us some more solid gain as it continues its breakout run.
Volume: 639.699K Avg Volume: 522.331K
BUY POINT: $29.45 Volume=750K Target=$35.45 Stop=$28.38
POSITION: UMK AF - Jan. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$148.93; +0.14; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still set to make the move, showing a nice doji on low volume as it works laterally, preparing to follow that strong money flow. Just waiting for that break higher on rising trade to move in. To recap: PCP is another stock that enjoyed a strong run in 2006 through July 2007 and then corrected. Not much of a correction, however, as PCP formed an 8 week base and then broke higher in the last half of September. It rallied to 150, then came back to test last week, tapping at the 18 day EMA (143.53) on the lows but then rebounding to close above the 10 day EMA. Friday it posted a nice gain off that near support on rising though still below average volume. A super set up to move higher, and ready to move in as PCP continues its precision climb higher.
Volume: 629.6K Avg Volume: 1.458M
BUY POINT: $150.05 Volume=2M Target=$172.45 Stop=$146.05
POSITION: PCP LI - Dec. $145c (61 delta) or PCP CJ - Mar. $150c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcp.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$29.00; +0.19; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Flying plateau. Gapped higher but no volume as VIP continued the bounce higher, but it was not what we wanted to move in. May come back and test a bit more before it turns back up; not a bad entry point. If it continues from here we can take some positions and add when it tests. To recap: VIP is another leading stock we are looking to move into once more. It is volatile and shook us out last week as it tested lower and our trailing stop kicked in. It rebounded, and on Friday gapped higher on the best trade in over a month. This took it out of its three week lateral consolidation that formed to consolidate the late August breakout from its 7 week double bottom with handle. Looks as if the consolidation period is over and we are ready to move back into VIP as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 2.37M Avg Volume: 3.41M
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: VIQ AZ - Jan. $27c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vip.html
Play Date: 10/03/2007
WBMD (WebMD Healgh Holdings--$54.56; -0.52; optionable): Health information services to consumers, physicians, etc. online and via publications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbmd.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup with handle. Strong volume to start the month and then again Friday as WBMD moved higher. Could not keep it going Monday as it faded modestly on very, very low volume. Still set to make the move; just needs to show it. To recap: You can call this a 6 month cup with handle or a 7 month reverse head and shoulders; either way it is a nice, steady base that has built the foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Nice consolidation of the December to February run, and this has set the groundwork for the next breakout and run. Volume has swelled nicely the past three sessions, jumping well above average Wednesday. Strong money flow is moving sharply higher ahead of price. Looking for a strong break higher to start the play.
Volume: 41.704K Avg Volume: 151.777K
BUY POINT: $56.12 Volume=250K Target=$66.45 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: QWB AL - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbmd.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$61.87; -0.82; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in the handle of its nicely formed base, showing good price/volume action as it builds toward the breakout (rising volume on up sessions, lower on the down sessions). Seems to be ignoring some of the weakness in the energy sector as the independents are undergoing accumulation once again. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA. May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 1.308M Avg Volume: 4.157M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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