|
|
trade stock, stock split
Begin 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Post-Split:
Play Date: 10/09/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$43.09; +2.89; optionable): Network security hardware and software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Kept an eye on BCSI as it worked through its split, and on Tuesday volume jumped higher as the stock jumped off near support at the 18 day EMA. It got a bit dicey on the actual split, then turned right back up and now it is ready to make the move out of its 7 week base. This short base formed right on top of a much larger 3.5 month base. It broke out of that base with that huge move in August that made us a sack full of money and this consolidation is setting up the next big run. Still a buy as it continues higher from here.
Volume: 2.615M Avg Volume: 1.91M
BUY POINT: $32.42 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.48 Stop=$40.78
POSITION: IHU AH - Jan. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 10/09/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$52.28; +0.20; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CTRP broke out in mid-September, moving out of a 10 week double bottom with handle base. It rallied and made us some excellent money. It is making a deeper test to start the new quarter, coming back to the 18 day EMA (50.14) or thereabouts this week. It has held that level and we are going to be ready for a rebound on some stronger volume. When we see that we are going to move in and try to catch another run.
Volume: 268.33K Avg Volume: 799.311K
BUY POINT: $52.65 Volume=900K Target=$62.95 Stop=$50.11
POSITION: QCT CX - Marc. $52.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 10/09/2007
TTC (Toro--$59.32; +0.77; optionable): Mowers, small tools, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
EARNINGS: 12-6-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. TTC sets up a big base then races higher, then sets up another, races higher, etc. Strong like bull. It is just about finished forming the right shoulder to its 18 week accumulation pattern, getting some strong, above average volume Tuesday, the first above average trade for the month. Looking for a break higher on continued strong trade to move into the position and ride the bull.
Volume: 374.6K Avg Volume: 329.671K
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=500K Target=$68.95 Stop=$58.12
POSITION: TTC LL - Dec. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
Leader:
Play Date: 10/09/2007
CF (CF Industries--$73.33; +1.73; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: 10-29-07
STATUS: Test breakout. The ag stocks were getting the money Tuesday and CF was getting its own injection of cash as volume surged above average on the move. It sold hard just after the start of the month, just after it made its breakout from the 9 week base. After that short touch of distribution it found support at the 18 day EMA on low volume and then started to bounce Tuesday on that big volume shot. Looking to plant some money in this one as it continues the break higher on some strong volume.
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 1.577M
BUY POINT: $74.88 Volume=1.9M Target=$89.95 Stop=$71.35
POSITION: CF AO - Jan. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cf.html
Play Date: 10/09/2007
CNH (CNH Global--$61.35; +2.60; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnh.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock that broke higher on strong volume in late September but then suffered some early month distribution that was over as fast as it started. It held near support at the 18 day EMA and then bounced higher, picking up some stronger, average volume as the entire sector improved. Looks as if the pullback is over and CNH is ready to continue its breakout move. With a continued move higher we are looking to get back into CNH and have it make us some more money.
Volume: 423K Avg Volume: 439.773K
BUY POINT: $61.68 Volume=500K Target=$71.95 Stop=$58.65
POSITION: CNH CL - Mar. $60c (51 delta, 148 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnh.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BUCY: Early November.
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07. Looking for an announcement Wednesday to break higher out of this range.
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/04/2007
DVN (Devon Energy--$86.07; +1.46; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dvn.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Starting up off the 10 day EMA after the Monday test with volume a bit higher. Looks good to continue the move. Just needs some more volume. To recap: Volume was up on Thursday as DVN made the break from a 15 week base. Volume was not huge, but it was definitely higher as it made the move to a new high. Nicely formed base has put in its time, and with money flow leading the way higher DVN looks ready to give us a nice breakout run that can make us some solid coin.
Volume: 2.33M Avg Volume: 3.432M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=4M Target=$98.95 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: DVN AQ - Jan. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dvn.html
Play Date: 10/08/2007
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$74.20; +0.78; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Tuesday on some rising volume, close to average. Ready to move higher, and with some more volume on the move it is a buy. To recap: SCHN surged higher in mid-September, making the breakout from a 9 week cup with handle base. That base formed after the breakout, finally, from a long 3.5 year consolidation, and that was the first breakout after that long deep sleep. Nice breakout and surge to 76, and now it is testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (71.78) last week where it held and started to bounce Friday and Monday. Looking for some strong volume to come back in as it resumes the breakout run. That is when we move in.
Volume: 477.589K Avg Volume: 583.146K
BUY POINT: Continued move from here on stronger trade (orig. $73.95) Volume=820K Target=$88.95 Stop=$71.21
POSITION: SQQ AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/schn.html
Play Date: 09/29/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$63.08; +1.21; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume started higher again as it did last Thursday, and XTO bumped up against the top of the handle in its base. Looks good for the breakout. To recap: A great runner the first half of 2007, XTO got winded and needed a new base after hitting a new all-time high. A nice 14 week pattern has formed with a low volume handle the past two weeks above the 10 day EMA. May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, but it is in excellent shape for a new breakout to a new all-time high and another good run from there.
Volume: 3.177M Avg Volume: 4.157M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=6.3M Target=$76.25 Stop=$61.08
POSITION: XTO AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/06/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$37.03; +0.72; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice above average volume Tuesday as COG came back from the Monday fade. Very solid upside volume the past week; it is ready to make the break. To recap: After a 4 month rest and basing period, the independent oil and gas stocks are shaping up for a new breakout move. COG is one doing just that. After a nice run from March into June it has formed the current 15 week base. Volume surged to end last week, and on Friday COG jumped higher on the best volume in 2 months. Money flow is plowing higher and leading the way for price to follow. Ready to move in as COG continues the run higher.
Volume: 987.8K Avg Volume: 879.346K
BUY POINT: $37.57 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: COG AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/08/2007
LZ (Lubrizol--$68.84; +0.77; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lz.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher on some rising, close to average trade. After rallying higher early it faded back, giving up more ground than it gained, and that kept us out of the play for the day. Now if it continues higher from here on continued solid trade it is a buy. To recap: Volume was up though still below average Monday as LZ posted a solid price move and moved close to the breakout from its 17 week base. As with many stocks, LZ enjoyed a strong end to 2006 and a solid early 2007 and needed a consolidation to rest and set up the next move. Nice base has done than and now we look for a bit more volume from LZ as it moves to the breakout and the new high.
Volume: 526.9K Avg Volume: 545.097K
BUY POINT: On a continued move on solid trade (orig. $68.55) Volume=818K Target=$78.95 Stop=$65.94
POSITION: LZ LM - Dec. $65c (64 delta, 177 OI) or LZ CN - Mar. $70c (50 delta, 86 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lz.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$78.25; +1.35; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume edged higher as MT moved off the 10 day EMA and back up to the Monday high. Good test and looking for it to continue higher from here on more volume for the buy. To recap: MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 1.455M Avg Volume: 2.36M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delta) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock split
|
