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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Post-Split:
Play Date: 10/11/2007
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$40.19; -0.82; optionable): Casual restaurant
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A big runner in late 2006 and early 2007, BWLD needed a breather after the move and has spent the past 20 weeks forming a new base to lay the foundation for a new breakout. Nice volume as it bounced to start the month and now a low volume fade to form the handle, Thursday closing right at the 10 day EMA on continued below average volume. May take a couple more sessions to finish the handle, and we are looking to move in as BWLD rebounds and shows us the breakout.
Volume: 360.076K Avg Volume: 548.158K
BUY POINT: $42.22 Volume=800K Target=$50.65 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: BQU CH - Mar. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwld.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
ESRX (Express Scripts--$56.86; -2.05; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ESRX blasted out of a 12 week ascending base to start the week, rallying to 60 on the Wednesday high before starting to fade. In the afternoon selling ESRX fell back to near support at the 10 day EMA (56.54) on continued below average volume. Looking for this strong stock to hold here and then rebound on stronger volume to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 2.254M Avg Volume: 2.457M
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=2.5M Target=$68.95 Stop=$56.38
POSITION: XTQ AK - Jan. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$41.69; -0.46; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Crashed down in August, but has steadily rebuilt itself in a 12 week base, approaching a 7 year high. It faded this week, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA (41.23) on the low and rebound. Volume remained below average, indicating there was no real selling. Looking for it to hold this level and then show some strong volume as it breaks upside and through the buy point.
Volume: 1.911M Avg Volume: 2.623M
BUY POINT: $43.12 Volume=3M Target=$51.75 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FLK AV - Jan. $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
FCSX (FCStone Group--$36.83; +0.12; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcsx.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Great surge higher Wednesday pushed FCSX past the middle of the 13 week base. It was heading higher Thursday but then got caught in the selling and faded back to flat. Still looking solid and ready to move in if it continues higher from here. Might work laterally and form a handle; if it does, all the better.
Volume: 708.103K Avg Volume: 600.582K
BUY POINT: $37.21 Volume=850K Target=$44.75 Stop=$34.97
POSITION: QGD AG - Jan. $35c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcsx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BUCY: Early November.
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
FCN: No announcement but continues moving laterally in its 9 week flat base
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/11/2007
TECH (Techne--$66.19; -0.09; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. TECH broke higher from a 20 month ascending base August. It is making its second test of that breakout, jumping off near support at the 18 day EMA on very strong volume to start this week. After that surge it is moving laterally, consolidating that surge and setting up the next move. Just going to be patient and let it make its test and then move in as it starts back up to continue the move higher.
Volume: 158.405K Avg Volume: 158.011K
BUY POINT: $67.55 Volume=225K Target=$77.88 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: TGQ AM - Jan. $65c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tech.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/02/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$75.43; -2.17; optionable): Heavy equipment (draglines, cranes)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BUCY made a low volume rise in its 13 week base; we did not want to move in given the low trade. Now it is making the test, falling to the 10 day EMA on the close on continued low volume. This may be the test that sets up the stronger breakout. Looking for volume off of this test.
Volume: 411.702K Avg Volume: 693.821K
BUY POINT: $75.91 Volume=1M Target=$87.45 Stop=$73.97
POSITION: HBU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/09/2007
CNH (CNH Global--$59.95; -1.31; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnh.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice volume Tuesday as CNH bounce doff the 10 day EMA (59.40), and then a low volume test back to that level Thursday. Looking for it to hold the line at that level and rebound, giving us the buy. To recap: Another stock that broke higher on strong volume in late September but then suffered some early month distribution that was over as fast as it started. It held near support at the 18 day EMA and then bounced higher, picking up some stronger, average volume as the entire sector improved. Looks as if the pullback is over and CNH is ready to continue its breakout move. With a continued move higher we are looking to get back into CNH and have it make us some more money.
Volume: 317.2K Avg Volume: 439.459K
BUY POINT: $61.68 Volume=500K Target=$71.95 Stop=$58.65
POSITION: CNH CL - Mar. $60c (51 delta, 148 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnh.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$36.98; +0.39; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice surge Thursday but sold back as the market faded into the afternoon. Still solid and ready to make its move. To recap: After a 4 month rest and basing period, the independent oil and gas stocks are shaping up for a new breakout move. COG is one doing just that. After a nice run from March into June it has formed the current 15 week base. Volume surged to end last week, and on Friday COG jumped higher on the best volume in 2 months. Money flow is plowing higher and leading the way for price to follow. Ready to move in as COG continues the run higher.
Volume: 877.3K Avg Volume: 882.077K
BUY POINT: $37.57 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: COG AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
Play Date: 10/09/2007
TTC (Toro--$58.46; -0.80; optionable): Mowers, small tools, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
EARNINGS: 12-6-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Plunked down ot the 50 day EMA on the close, but volume remained below average and TTC is still in good position to make the move higher. Just have to be patient and let it show us the move. To recap: TTC sets up a big base then races higher, then sets up another, races higher, etc. Strong like bull. It is just about finished forming the right shoulder to its 18 week accumulation pattern, getting some strong, above average volume Tuesday, the first above average trade for the month. Looking for a break higher on continued strong trade to move into the position and ride the bull.
Volume: 296.8K Avg Volume: 331.305K
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=500K Target=$68.95 Stop=$58.12
POSITION: TTC LL - Dec. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/08/2007
LZ (Lubrizol--$68.24; +0.08; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lz.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Trying to make the move the past three sessions but coming back off the session highs. Still looks super, refusing to give up its gains as the market sold. Ready to move in as it continues higher. To recap: Volume was up though still below average Monday as LZ posted a solid price move and moved close to the breakout from its 17 week base. As with many stocks, LZ enjoyed a strong end to 2006 and a solid early 2007 and needed a consolidation to rest and set up the next move. Nice base has done than and now we look for a bit more volume from LZ as it moves to the breakout and the new high.
Volume: 476.2K Avg Volume: 544.573K
BUY POINT: $68.55 Volume=818K Target=$78.95 Stop=$65.94
POSITION: LZ LM - Dec. $65c (64 delta, 177 OI) or LZ CN - Mar. $70c (50 delta, 86 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lz.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$78.57; +0.44; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged higher Thursday but then gave it back to close with a modest gain on the session with some surging volume. Still looking for positions on this one as it continues higher off of this test. To recap: MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 3.036M Avg Volume: 2.333M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delta) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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