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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/13/2007
CIEN (Ciena--$45.47; -0.66; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Breakout test. Made us some excellent money on the early October breakout as it surged out of a nicely formed 10 week base. Strong price and volume moves sent it to 48.39 on that move. It peaked out and it now testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (44.72) on the Thursday and Friday intraday lows, rebounding each time to cut its losses. Nice lower volume on this test, showing few sellers, especially when compared to the buyers on the upside. Looking for CIEN to complete this test and then give us the stronger break higher that we can once more buy into for the next run higher.
Volume: 2.915M Avg Volume: 3.2M
BUY POINT: $46.44 Volume=3.3M Target=$45.45 Stop=$44.68
POSITION: EUQ AI - Jan. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cien.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
FREE (FreeSeas, Inc.--$9.14; +0.58; no options): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/free.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in December 2005, FREE has come into its own in 2007. It peaked on a strong surge in July and then started the current base, an 11 week job that saw a massive upside breakout last Wednesday. Bad timing as it then succumbed to the Thursday selling, but managed to hold onto a decent chunk of the breakout. Friday it was starting to bounce higher again, and if it can continue we are looking to start into some positions as it continues its breakout run. This stock is a bit low on the volume side, but volume has grown as the stock has grown.
Volume: 216.965K Avg Volume: 51K.
BUY POINT: $9.38 Volume=200K Target=$11.45 Stop=$8.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/free.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
GIVN (Given Imaging--$30.02; +0.35; optionable): Medical equipment for diagnosing ailments of the gastrointestinal tract
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/givn.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice handle is forming to the 14 week base, working laterally in a tight range as the 10 day EMA (29.20) rises to catch up with it after that strong late September to early October run that set the right leg of the base. This base formed after the June breakout from a long 1.5 year reverse head and shoulders base; all of that basing gives it plenty of shaking out to make the run higher. Money flow is strong, surging higher ahead of price. Looking for price to follow the money higher this week.
Volume: 109.836K Avg Volume: 144.571K
BUY POINT: $30.35 Volume=217K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: GPQ BF - Feb. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/givn.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
TKC (Turkcell--$22.42; +0.36; optionable): Foreign wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: Breakout test. Another strong stock that made us great money on its September breakout and run higher, TKC peaked and used last week to test, fading back to the 18 day EMA (21.79) Thursday. Volume was up some, but we like how it held that near support and showed strong volume Friday as it bounced up off that level. Very strong breakout and with that kind of strength we anticipate another strong run higher after a week of testing. Ready to move in as it holds and then makes the bounce.
STATUS:
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 954.6K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: TKC AX - Jan. $22.50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tkc.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 10/13/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$67.71; +1.68; optionable): Shoes, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CROX surged higher to end September and then the momentum waned into October, but it continued to trend higher. It used last week to test, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (64.94) on the intraday low and bounced. Friday it started to bounce higher but volume was not there. Looking for some more volume as it bounces up off of this first test of the breakout move. That is one of our favorite entry points as it shows buyers are still interested even at the higher price.
Volume: 2.238M Avg Volume: 6.043M
BUY POINT: $68.24 Volume=6.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: CQJ AA - Jan. $67.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crox.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$116.42; +2.96; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. FCX started the move higher Tuesday out of its test of the September breakout, putting on some strong volume as it did. Thursday it gapped higher, really pushing the move. Then that reversal took it back down. Held the 10 day EMA on the low, however. Friday it gapped higher and closed right at the session high. We took some of the great gain in one of our positions off the table on that move. Looks as if the run off the first test of the breakout is ready to resume after that Thursday hiccup. Ready to move in as FCX continues higher.
Volume: 8.011M Avg Volume: 11.08M
BUY POINT: $116.91 Volume=12M Target=$134.95 Stop=$112.94
POSITION: FCX AC - Jan. $115c (64 delta) or FCX AY - Jan. $120c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/06/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$37.22; +0.24; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showing some excellent volume spikes the past few weeks as COG bumps at the breakout from its 16 week base. The independent oil companies are really looking well-rested and ready to make the break higher. Ready to move in as COG shows the breakout move.
Volume: 615.3K Avg Volume: 884.015K
BUY POINT: $37.57 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: COG AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cog.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$41.57; -0.11; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continuing the test back to the 10 day EMA (41.29), forming the handle to its base on some very low volume. Nice test and just waiting for the stock to break back to the upside on some strong volume. To recap: Crashed down in August, but has steadily rebuilt itself in a 12 week base, approaching a 7 year high. It faded this week, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA on the low and rebound. Volume remained below average, indicating there was no real selling. Looking for it to hold this level and then show some strong volume as it breaks upside and through the buy point.
Volume: 711.07K Avg Volume: 2.612M
BUY POINT: $43.12 Volume=3M Target=$51.75 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FLK AV - Jan. $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$78.41; -0.16; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the break higher Thursday but that late selling pushed it back. Holding at the 10 day EMA (77.59) and still in great position to hold and make the climb higher. To recap: MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 1.951M Avg Volume: 2.353M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delga) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
NTCT (Netscout Systems--$11.21; +0.17; no options): Performance optimization for high-speed networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntct.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Edged higher Friday on some lower trade, closing right at the buy point. If it can continue from here it is a by. To recap: NTCT exploded out of a large 18 month ascending base in late September, surging on very strong volume. It came back to test to start October, fading to the 18 day EMA (10.49) on low volume. It bottomed Tuesday as volume surged and then started up Wednesday on very strong trade. Thursday it screamed higher but then faded back for a modest gain. Still looks super to make the break higher and we are ready to move in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 723.188K Avg Volume: 228.1K
BUY POINT: $11.21 Volume=500K Target=$13.45 Stop=$10.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntct.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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