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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/13/2007
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$39.97; +0.76; optionable): In-patient behavioral health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume started to kick up last week as PSYS tested the 18 day EMA in the two week handle to its 8 month base, surging Friday toward the breakout point. A big long base after reaching a new high in February and April. Looking for more strong volume as it makes the breakout move. With this kind of base behind it PSYS should give us plenty of upside on the breakout run.
Volume: 541.204K Avg Volume: 781.526K
BUY POINT: $40.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.65 Stop=$38.98
POSITION: BYU AH - Jan. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
TKC (Turkcell--$22.42; +0.36; optionable): Foreign wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: Breakout test. Another strong stock that made us great money on its September breakout and run higher, TKC peaked and used last week to test, fading back to the 18 day EMA (21.79) Thursday. Volume was up some, but we like how it held that near support and showed strong volume Friday as it bounced up off that level. Very strong breakout and with that kind of strength we anticipate another strong run higher after a week of testing. Ready to move in as it holds and then makes the bounce.
STATUS:
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 954.6K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: TKC AX - Jan. $22.50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tkc.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 10/13/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$67.71; +1.68; optionable): Shoes, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CROX surged higher to end September and then the momentum waned into October, but it continued to trend higher. It used last week to test, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (64.94) on the intraday low and bounced. Friday it started to bounce higher but volume was not there. Looking for some more volume as it bounces up off of this first test of the breakout move. That is one of our favorite entry points as it shows buyers are still interested even at the higher price.
Volume: 2.238M Avg Volume: 6.043M
BUY POINT: $68.24 Volume=6.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: CQJ AA - Jan. $67.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crox.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BUCY: Early November.
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
TECH: Tentatively set for 10-24-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early but nice move from a nice pattern.
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/13/2007
ABV (Ambev--$78.94; +0.61; optionable): Corona beer, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abv.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ABV broke out from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base to start October, surging on very strong volume as it made the move. It rallied to 82 and then faded last week, coming back to the 10 day EMA (78.02) to test the move, holding that on Thursday and Friday. Excellent breakout move from this leader, and this first test of that breakout is setting up the entry point for us. Once we see it start back up on some decent trade we move in.
Volume: 505.7K Avg Volume: 690.739K
BUY POINT: $79.55 Volume=750K Target=$91.50 Stop=$77.22
POSITION: ABV AO - Jan. $75c (66 delta, 82 OI) or ABV AP - Jan. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abv.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$111.33; -0.30; optionable): Aerospace, defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Tested back last week as it forms something of a short handle to its 10 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA. Nice strong run through early August. It announced some great earnings, gapping higher and running before rolling over with the market that month. It held and set up the current base. Looking to move in as it bounces off the 18 day EMA and heads higher toward its next earnings report.
Volume: 310.4K Avg Volume: 383.45K
BUY POINT: $113.76 Volume=575K Target=$129.95 Stop=$110.65
POSITION: ATK AB - Jan. $110c (59 delta, 185 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
BLUD (Immucor--$38.51; +0.54; optionable): Diagnostics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-3-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Surged higher to start the money on some strong earnings results and is now testing back, tapping the 10 day EMA (37.81) on the Thursday intraday low and rebounding. Solid breakout from a 22 week base in mid-September, and this is the second test of that break higher. Looking to move in as it continues higher off the 10 day EMA test as it did on Friday.
Volume: 456.411K Avg Volume: 910.144K
BUY POINT: $38.78 Volume=1M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.77
POSITION: QMQ AG - Jan. $35c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/02/2007
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$77.65; +2.22; optionable): Heavy equipment (draglines, cranes)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved up Friday on some stronger, average volume after testing the 10 day EMA early. On a further move upside it is a buy. To recap: BUCY made a low volume rise in its 13 week base; we did not want to move in given the low trade. Now it is making the test, falling to the 10 day EMA on the close on continued low volume. This may be the test that sets up the stronger breakout. Looking for volume off of this test.
Volume: 639.438K Avg Volume: 695.253K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move from here (orig. $75.91) Volume=1M Target=$87.45 Stop=$73.97
POSITION: HBU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
TECH (Techne--$66.18; -0.01; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in the nice test, holding onto most of the break higher from last Tuesday. Nice low volume pullback and it looks as if TECH is not going to give up much more before it resumes the breakout move. To recap: TECH broke higher from a 20 month ascending base August. It is making its second test of that breakout, jumping off near support at the 18 day EMA on very strong volume to start this week. After that surge it is moving laterally, consolidating that surge and setting up the next move. Just going to be patient and let it make its test and then move in as it starts back up to continue the move higher.
Volume: 118.555K Avg Volume: 158.974K
BUY POINT: $67.55 Volume=225K Target=$77.88 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: TGQ AM - Jan. $65c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tech.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/09/2007
CNH (CNH Global--$62.25; +2.30; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnh.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid price action Friday but volume was very low. Thus we held off moving in; hope we don't regret that decision Monday. Still looking to move into this strong stock as it continues higher. To recap: Another stock that broke higher on strong volume in late September but then suffered some early month distribution that was over as fast as it started. It held near support at the 18 day EMA and then bounced higher, picking up some stronger, average volume as the entire sector improved. Looks as if the pullback is over and CNH is ready to continue its breakout move. With a continued move higher we are looking to get back into CNH and have it make us some more money.
Volume: 235.2K Avg Volume: 438.182K
BUY POINT: New: $62.48 (orig. $61.68) Volume=500K Target=$71.95 Stop=$58.65
POSITION: CNH CL - Mar. $60c (51 delta, 148 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnh.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$37.22; +0.24; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still set to make the move higher, easing upside Friday but on lower trade. Just looking for a breakaway move to give us the entry point. To recap: After a 4 month rest and basing period, the independent oil and gas stocks are shaping up for a new breakout move. COG is one doing just that. After a nice run from March into June it has formed the current 15 week base. Volume surged to end last week, and on Friday COG jumped higher on the best volume in 2 months. Money flow is plowing higher and leading the way for price to follow. Ready to move in as COG continues the run higher.
Volume: 615.3K Avg Volume: 884.015K
BUY POINT: $37.57 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.65 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: COG AG - Jan. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/11/2007
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$40.33; +0.14; optionable): Casual restaurant
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight hammer doji on the 10 day EMA Friday on very low trade as BWLD continues to set up for the strong break higher. Great pattern and ready to jump all over this one. To recap: A big runner in late 2006 and early 2007, BWLD needed a breather after the move and has spent the past 20 weeks forming a new base to lay the foundation for a new breakout. Nice volume as it bounced to start the month and now a low volume fade to form the handle, Thursday closing right at the 10 day EMA on continued below average volume. May take a couple more sessions to finish the handle, and we are looking to move in as BWLD rebounds and shows us the breakout.
Volume: 189.032K Avg Volume: 538.503K
BUY POINT: $42.22 Volume=800K Target=$50.65 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: BQU CH - Mar. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwld.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$41.57; -0.11; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continuing the test back to the 10 day EMA (41.29), forming the handle to its base on some very low volume. Nice test and just waiting for the stock to break back to the upside on some strong volume. To recap: Crashed down in August, but has steadily rebuilt itself in a 12 week base, approaching a 7 year high. It faded this week, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA on the low and rebound. Volume remained below average, indicating there was no real selling. Looking for it to hold this level and then show some strong volume as it breaks upside and through the buy point.
Volume: 711.07K Avg Volume: 2.612M
BUY POINT: $43.12 Volume=3M Target=$51.75 Stop=$49.94
POSITION: FLK AV - Jan. $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$78.41; -0.16; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the break higher Thursday but that late selling pushed it back. Holding at the 10 day EMA (77.59) and still in great position to hold and make the climb higher. To recap: MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (74.36) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 1.951M Avg Volume: 2.353M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delta) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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