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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/15/2007
BRCD (Brocade Communications--$9.15; -0.10; optionable): PC data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
EARNINGS: Third week November
STATUS: Test breakout. BRCD surged Friday on strong volume, breaking out from a 7 month cup with handle of sorts. It formed a very nice handle with a lateral move over the 200 day SMA (8.53) after it rallied through that level in late September. After making that strong break higher Friday it took a low volume breather Monday. After this pause it looks strong enough to continue the run higher. When it does that is our cue to move in.
Volume: 6.095M Avg Volume: 10.588M
BUY POINT: $9.34 Volume=11M Target=$11.32 Stop=$8.77
POSITION: BQB AU - Jan. $7.50c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcd.html
Play Date: 10/15/2007
DSX (Diana Shipping--$33.75; +0.75; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsx.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking to pick up DSX again as it starts its second run following the early October breakout from its 10 week base. It surged last Thursday and then reversed along with the market. It fell back to the 10 day EMA (32.02) Thursday and Friday on the lows and then bounced Monday on continued above average volume. Looking to move in as DSX makes its second run after testing the breakout move, and that leaves plenty of upside for us as it runs higher.
Volume: 2.422M Avg Volume: 1.695M
BUY POINT: $34.04 Volume=2.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$31.98
POSITION: DSX CG - Mar. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dsx.html
Play Date: 10/15/2007
MTW (Manitowoc--$46.55; -0.69; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. MTW broke out from its 10 week cup with handle base in early September. It is making its second test of that breakout, tapping at the 18 day EMA (45.82) on the Thursday and Monday lows and then bouncing up. Nice low volume on the tests and looking to move in as MTW breaks higher on some rising trade and heads toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.043M Avg Volume: 1.905M
BUY POINT: $47.65 Volume=2.1M Target=$55.85 Stop=$46.77
POSITION: MTW AW - Jan. $47.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtw.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/15/2007
AMR (AMR Corp.--$24.26; -0.88; optionable): Airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amr.html
EARNINGS: 10-17-07 @ 12:00ET
STATUS: Put. Oil prices are rising higher and higher, and while gasoline prices are steady to falling because of the end of the drive season, jet fuel prices will not because of the busy holiday season. Thus we are looking to play AMR to the downside, ahead of its earnings if it gives us the move lower. It rallied up to the 90 day SMA (25.06) this month but had been unable to push through. It turned back down Monday once more and we are looking to enter as AMR pushes to the downside. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 7.576M Avg Volume: 7.972M
BUY POINT: $23.92 Volume=8M Target=$21.88 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: AMR WE - Nov. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/13/2007
CIEN (Ciena--$44.59; -0.88; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the test, moving a bit lower Monday to the 10 day EMA on continued below average volume. Testing that strong surge and just waiting for it to move higher to move back in. To recap: Made us some excellent money on the early October breakout as it surged out of a nicely formed 10 week base. Strong price and volume moves sent it to 48.39 on that move. It peaked out and it now testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (44.72) on the Thursday and Friday intraday lows, rebounding each time to cut its losses. Nice lower volume on this test, showing few sellers, especially when compared to the buyers on the upside. Looking for CIEN to complete this test and then give us the stronger break higher that we can once more buy into for the next run higher.
Volume: 3.121M Avg Volume: 3.217M
BUY POINT: $45.55 Volume=3.3M Target=$54.45 Stop=$43.89
POSITION: EUQ AI - Jan. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cien.html
Play Date: 10/11/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$41.54; -0.03; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji with tail Monday as FFIV tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close over the 10 day EMA. Looks as if that could be the end of the test and we are looking for the bounce higher from here. To recap: Crashed down in August, but has steadily rebuilt itself in a 12 week base, approaching a 7 year high. It faded this week, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA on the low and rebound. Volume remained below average, indicating there was no real selling. Looking for it to hold this level and then show some strong volume as it breaks upside and through the buy point.
Volume: 726.952K Avg Volume: 2.586M
BUY POINT: $42.38 Volume=3M Target=$51.75 Stop=$40.45
POSITION: FLK AV - Jan. $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
GIVN (Given Imaging--$30.19; +0.17; optionable): Medical equipment for diagnosing ailments of the gastrointestinal tract
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/givn.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Broke higher Monday but no volume and did not crack the buy point. Still looks good in its base and just waiting for the move with some trade behind it. To recap: A nice handle is forming to the 14 week base, working laterally in a tight range as the 10 day EMA (29.38) rises to catch up with it after that strong late September to early October run that set the right leg of the base. This base formed after the June breakout from a long 1.5 year reverse head and shoulders base; all of that basing gives it plenty of shaking out to make the run higher. Money flow is strong, surging higher ahead of price. Looking for price to follow the money higher this week.
Volume: 54.583K Avg Volume: 143.877K
BUY POINT: $30.35 Volume=217K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: GPQ BF - Feb. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/givn.html
Play Date: 10/06/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$77.99; -0.42; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07. Not confirmed.
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (77.66), still setting up for the break higher after this first test of the September breakout move. Just needs to make a move stick on some volume. To recap: MT is making the first test of a strong breakout from mid-September when it moved out of a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to just over 80 on that move and came back last week to test, holding just over the 18 day EMA (76.18) Thursday and then bouncing Friday on some stronger volume. It has moved well, but it looks as if it is going to try and duplicate that prior move and make a run toward 100.
Volume: 1.954M Avg Volume: 2.366M
BUY POINT: $78.42 Volume=2.4M Target=$90.45 Stop=$74.22
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (51 delga) or MT AO - Jan. $75c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
TKC (Turkcell--$22.15; -0.27; optionable): Foreign wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Monday on some strong volume but it could not hold the move to the close, falling back toward the 18 day EMA on the close. Still set up nicely to make the next move and we will see if it can reload and make the move stick. To recap: Another strong stock that made us great money on its September breakout and run higher, TKC peaked and used last week to test, fading back to the 18 day EMA (21.82) Thursday. Volume was up some, but we like how it held that near support and showed strong volume Friday as it bounced up off that level. Very strong breakout and with that kind of strength we anticipate another strong run higher after a week of testing. Ready to move in as it holds and then makes the bounce.
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 954.6K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: TKC AX - Jan. $22.50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tkc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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