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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/17/2007
ALGN (Align Tech--$28.14; +0.98; optionable): Medical appliances (transparent braces)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/algn.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ALGN gapped higher Wednesday on strong volume as it tried the breakout from its 12 week base that formed just below a new all-time high. We were watching the pattern develop, and that strong volume caught our attention. It could not hold the move on Wednesday what with the market up and down and back up, but we like the pattern and the action, looking for the continued break to the upside to give us the buy point.
Volume: 2.513M Avg Volume: 1.193M
BUY POINT: $28.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$34.38 Stop=$26.89
POSITION: CUA AE - Jan. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/algn.html
Play Date: 10/17/2007
AMSC (American Superconductor--$24.90; +0.71; optionable): Power electronic converters, high temperature superconductor wires
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-07
STATUS: Cup with handle. Nice surge to start the month took AMSC off of its low and formed the right side of its 10 week base. It peaked just over a week ago and has come back on low volume to test the move, holding at near support at the 10 day EMA (24.21), showing a nice tight doji at that level Wednesday. Excellent action on this test is setting up for a breakout to a new 7 year high.
Volume: 398.941K Avg Volume: 748.183K
BUY POINT: $26.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$31.32 Stop=$24.23
POSITION: QAY AE - Jan. $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amsc.html
Play Date: 10/17/2007
CBEY (CBeyond Communications--$42.70; +1.64; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbey.html
After Hours: *
STATUS:
Volume: 210.619K Avg Volume: 270.039K
BUY POINT: $43.08 Volume=400K Target=$50.95 Stop=$40.78
POSITION: QYN LH - Dec. $40c (65 delta, 99 oi) or QYN CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbey.html
Play Date: 10/17/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$52.14; +3.15; optionable): Chinese travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Going to the well on this one again as CTRP tests the big September breakout from its 10 week double bottom with handle base. It surged up close to 55 and then tested, but then it dumped lower last Thursday, bouncing off the 50 day EMA on the low of that session. It consolidated, and then Wednesday it was moving up once more on some rising, above average volume. Excellent recovery and we are looking to move into this one again as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.041M Avg Volume: 845.985K
BUY POINT: $52.39 Volume=1M Target=$62.85 Stop=$49.91
POSITION: QCT CX - Mar. $52.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 10/17/2007
SNPS (Synopsis--$28.64; +0.30; optionable): Electronic design automation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SNPS shows some strong, above average volume last week as it made the breakout from its 5.5 month reverse head and shoulders base. The move is going to take SNPS to a new all-time high as it continues to run on this breakout. After that breakout it came back to test the move, tapping at the 10 day EMA (28.03) on the intraday lows and then taking off on Wednesday. Volume did not move up with it yet, but we expect it to come along again as SNPS continues the move higher.
Volume: 766.877K Avg Volume: 1.339M
BUY POINT: $28.79 Volume=1.4M Target=$34.50 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: YPQ AE - Jan. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snps.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/16/2007
BBBB (Blackboard--$46.50; +0.13; optionable): Multimedia graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbbb.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tight doji Wednesday as BBBB tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and recovered to hold the tight, flat range. Low volume continues as it makes the test. Looks ready to go. To recap: BBBB surged higher in late September, clearing a 10 week cup base. We watched it make that breakout to a new high. Way to go. Got some great pictures but no money. Of course as is usually the case, Bx4 has come back to test, fading the past two weeks in a very gradual pullback and on below average volume. It is holding above the 18 day EMA (45.90) as it makes this test, and we are just going to wait for it to bounce back up on some rising trade and that is when we move in. Oh, did I mention that the first test of a breakout is my favorite entry point?
Volume: 186.946K Avg Volume: 414.824K
BUY POINT: $47.55 Volume=425K Target=$54.85 Stop=$45.82
POSITION: BPU AI - Jan. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbbb.html
Play Date: 10/15/2007
BRCD (Brocade Communications--$8.98; -0.04; optionable): PC data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
EARNINGS: Third week November
STATUS: Test breakout. Another reach down past the 10 day EMA intraday and then another rebound to close flat. Very nice shakeout action that is setting up the next break higher. To recap: BRCD surged Friday on strong volume, breaking out from a 7 month cup with handle of sorts. It formed a very nice handle with a lateral move over the 200 day SMA (8.53) after it rallied through that level in late September. After making that strong break higher Friday it took a low volume breather Monday. After this pause it looks strong enough to continue the run higher. When it does that is our cue to move in.
Volume: 11.661M Avg Volume: 10.636M
BUY POINT: $9.34 Volume=11M Target=$11.32 Stop=$8.77
POSITION: BQB AU - Jan. $7.50c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcd.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
CIEN (Ciena--$45.74; +0.70; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Wednesday though volume remained below average. Faded off the high but still looks good to make the continued breakout move. To recap: Made us some excellent money on the early October breakout as it surged out of a nicely formed 10 week base. Strong price and volume moves sent it to 48.39 on that move. It peaked out and it now testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (44.72) on the Thursday and Friday intraday lows, rebounding each time to cut its losses. Nice lower volume on this test, showing few sellers, especially when compared to the buyers on the upside. Looking for CIEN to complete this test and then give us the stronger break higher that we can once more buy into for the next run higher.
Volume: 2.8M Avg Volume: 3.209M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher from here (orig. $45.55) Volume=3.3M Target=$54.45 Stop=$43.89
POSITION: EUQ AI - Jan. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cien.html
Play Date: 10/16/2007
FREE (FreeSeas, Inc.--$8.92; -0.20; no options): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/free.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher but could not hold the move, fading back for a modestly lower close. Still in the test, still looking for the break higher to enter. To recap: A bit wild in the action the past week, but FREE did what it had to do, holding the 18 day EMA on the Monday low and then bouncing on strong volume Tuesday. Looks ready to continue the move in the 14 week base formed over the 50 day EMA. Ready to surge to a new high.
Volume: 186.246K Avg Volume: 75K
BUY POINT: $9.38 Volume=200K Target=$11.45 Stop=$8.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/free.html
Play Date: 10/13/2007
GIVN (Given Imaging--$30.08; -0.01; optionable): Medical equipment for diagnosing ailments of the gastrointestinal tract
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/givn.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Big volume Wednesday as GIVN broke higher intraday but could not hold the move. Still looks solid and like that higher volume. To recap: A nice handle is forming to the 14 week base, working laterally in a tight range as the 10 day EMA (29.38) rises to catch up with it after that strong late September to early October run that set the right leg of the base. This base formed after the June breakout from a long 1.5 year reverse head and shoulders base; all of that basing gives it plenty of shaking out to make the run higher. Money flow is strong, surging higher ahead of price. Looking for price to follow the money higher this week.
Volume: 231.778K Avg Volume: 143.267K
BUY POINT: $30.35 Volume=217K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: GPQ BF - Feb. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/givn.html
Play Date: 10/16/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$78.97; +0.09; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Another nice test, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low again and rebounding to close flat. Like the way it is holding the move and the near support. To recap: After breaking higher in early September and running up the 10 day EMA, OII is testing. It surged just over a week back on strong trade and is now testing, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low (80.46) and rebounding to cut its losses. Low volume on that test. Looking to move in as OII rebounds on some rising trade.
Volume: 586.2K Avg Volume: 830.385K
BUY POINT: $80.35 Volume=985K Target=$96.55 Stop=$77.32
POSITION: OII AP - Jan. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
Play Date: 10/16/2007
PCU (Southern Copper--$133.10; -0.75; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: 10-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, tapping at support at 130 on lower, below average volume, then rebounding to hold above the 10 day EMA. Nice test and still ready to make the next move higher. To recap: PCU is making its second test of the breakout, showing a nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday low (131.51). This pullback follows the September breakout from an 8 week base and it the second test of near support after that breakout. Looking to move in as PCU makes the next break higher from this test.
Volume: 1.584M Avg Volume: 2.379M
BUY POINT: $136.31 Volume=2.5M Target=$156.75 Stop=$131.38
POSITION: PCU AG - Jan. $135c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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