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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside: No downside this weekend. The fall as hard and we will let it rebound to test and then we can look to the downside if the rebound is weak.
Play Date: 10/20/2007
EJ (E-House China Holdings--$27.31; +1.53; optionable): Real estate agency services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ej.html
EARNINGS: Third week November
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A new issue in August, EJ rallied nicely, gapping higher to start October as new money was put to work in the market and the stock. It rallied to 30 and then came back to test last week in the market chop. Friday it tested lower and below the 18 day EMA, filling the gap from early October and then bouncing higher for a gain on the session on some strong volume. Like that gap fill and the strength in the otherwise weak market. Looks ready to move and we are ready to move in as EJ continues higher.
Volume: 1.799M Avg Volume: 910.7K
BUY POINT: $27.92 Volume=1.4M Target=$33.85 Stop=$26.24
POSITION: EJ BE - Feb. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ej.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
MA (MasterCard--$151.60; -2.12; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Yes MasterCard is in the credit business and no one thinks the consumer is worth a darn right now, yet MA's pattern is very nice. It spent the past two weeks forming the handle to its 15 week base, fading back to the 90 and 50 day EMA to end last week as volume remained well below volume. That low trade shows us there was no heavy selling, just an easy pullback. We are looking for volume to jump back up as MA rebounds off of this near support and moves through the 10 day EMA (156.08). That is our buy point.
Volume: 1.725M Avg Volume: 3.469M
BUY POINT: $156.22 Volume=5.2M Target=$179.95 Stop=$150.89
POSITION: MAL AK - Jan. $155c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ma.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$40.00; -0.11; optionable): This is the actual company that owns the index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07 (time not supplied)
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A beautiful set up heading into its earnings on Wednesday. It has come back on low volume the past week to the 18 day EMA (39.54), forming a handle to its 11 month base. The indices have gone through a long basing process and that has put them in position for their next runs higher, and if NASDAQ shows us the break higher heading into the results we will take some positions. Excellent set up anticipating strong results.
Volume: 2.068M Avg Volume: 2.668M
BUY POINT: $40.65 Volume=3M Target=$48.88 Stop=$39.42
POSITION: NQD AH - Jan. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cdndaq.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
SNHY (Sun Hydraulics--$31.96; -2.06; optionable): Parts for fluid power systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snhy.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice break higher to end September as SNHY rallied higher to form the right side of its 16 week base. Its momentum carried it into the second week of October, and then it started a nice, easy lower volume pullback to form the handle. Friday it undercut the 18 day EMA (32.55) but it was on low volume and is still in the test, so that was no issues. Just going to be patient and let it finish setting up and then when it shows the break higher on some good trade we will move in with the buy and get some hydraulics.
Volume: 147.421K Avg Volume: 238.552K
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=358K Target=$41.95 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: SQA CG - Mar. $30c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cdsnhy.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
TGB (Taseko Mines--$5.51; -0.13; no options): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgb.html
EARNINGS: 12-11-07
STATUS: Breakout test. TBG is another strong stock that used last week's selling to test a good move. It held at the 18 day EMA on the Friday close, testing the early October breakout from its 9 week cup with handle base. Nice low volume hold at the 18 day EMA after a strong breakout on solid volume. That shows just profit taking as it comes back to test. Nice break to a 10 year high and it looks ready to continue its excellent action.
Volume: 928K Avg Volume: 1.859M
BUY POINT: $5.75 Volume=1.9M Target=$7.95 Stop=$5.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tgb.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
TLM (Talisman Energy--$20.38; -0.36; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlm.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. TLM broke higher on strong trade just over a week back, clearing a 2 week lateral consolidation that more or less formed the right shoulder to its 20 week base. Friday it tested back as the energy sector sold off, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the low and bouncing modestly. Very solid action in a solid pattern. After this pullback to test we are looking for TLM to continue its move. Oil at $80/bbl, despite its economic implications, brought the independents out of their slumber, and TLM is in excellent position to continue a run higher after this test.
Volume: 3.331M Avg Volume: 3.1M
BUY POINT: $20.95 Volume=4.5M Target=$25.11 Stop=$20.08
POSITION: TLM AD - Jan. $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tlm.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
ALGN
AMSC
BEAV
CMC
PQ
TIF
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, EDU, GME, GOOG, MA, PCLN, NVDA, VLO
AAPL: Earnings are this week and it is holding up well moving into them.
CELG: Good time to sell some $70 strike calls against the stock position and let it fade back toward 68 to 67 and then buy them back.
EDU: After this 10 day EMA test concludes it will be ready to move again.
PCLN: This may give PCLN a much needed rest to set up a better run higher.
NVDA: Gapped higher Wednesday on the good INTC earnings then thumped lower Friday to the 10 day EMA. This could give us an entry point after clearing a 2 week consolidation.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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