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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/22/2007
CELG (Celgene--$69.70; -0.26; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07 before the open
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. This is what you like to see ahead of earnings from a strong stock that has had a good run: a nice low volume pullback. Trade was up on Friday, but it was for all stocks. Monday it finished the pullback, tapping and holding the 50 day EMA (68.36) on the low. It rebounded to close basically flat. Looking for CELG to continue higher ahead of earnings and looking to move in as it does. A leader that needed a test after the September breakout from its 14 week base, CELG has come back to test key support and held the breakout as well. Set up well so just waiting for the bounce higher.
Volume: 3.881M Avg Volume: 3.978M
BUY POINT: $70.22 Volume=4.1M Target=$80.95 Stop=$68.22
POSITION: LQH AN - Jan. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/celg.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$115.18; +5.08; optionable): GPS systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. GRMN is working laterally along the 18 day EMA (110.86) the past week and one-half, taking a breather after the early October test of the 50 day EMA on a gap lower. It held that support and rebounded on solid trade. It has held the move and Monday bounced up off the 18 day on stronger, above average volume. Predictions of a weaker holiday season have some talking about GRMN and related stocks, but it looks good for a pre-holiday break higher.
Volume: 5.173M Avg Volume: 4.677M
BUY POINT: $116.21 Volume=6.5M Target=$137.45 Stop=$110.75
POSITION: RZJ AC - Jan. $115c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/grmn.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$39.16; +1.77; optionable): Graphics chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. NVDA is in a continuing run higher after its breakout in late August. We made some solid money earlier in the run and then waited for it to set up for the next move. We watched it in a two week lateral move above the 18 day EMA (37.05) and then it gapped higher last Wednesday as we watched. Smooth move. It tested on Friday, however, and then held the 18 day EMA Monday and bounced higher on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking to move in as NVDA continues the break higher on the backs of the likes of AAPL and RIMM.
Volume: 13.441M Avg Volume: 13.805M
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=15M Target=$47.55 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: UVA AU - Jan. $37.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$51.10; +2.36; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: 10-16-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Announced earnings last week and they were made of steel. That broke STLD higher out of a choppy 22 week base that you could call a double bottom with handle if you stretch a bit. Call it a train wreck if you want; it held at the 50 day EMA on the low and then blasted higher on strong volume. After two strong price and volume sessions Wednesday and Thursday it made the obligatory pullback Friday in deference to the market selling, but volume was much, much lower and it held above the prior highs as it did. Nice break higher Monday on rising volume after gapping lower and testing the 18 day EMA on the low. It rebounded and is continuing the breakout.
Volume: 3.681M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $51.48 Volume=2M Target=$61.55 Stop=$49.32
POSITION: RQL AJ - Jan. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stld.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 10/22/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$46.78; -0.82; optionable): PC security software and hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 9-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking at a new buy on BCSI as it tapped at the 50 day EMA (40.14) on the Monday low and rebounded to recoup most of its loss, moving up to the 10 day EMA (46.96) on the close. Looking for it to continue back up after this test of the breakout move from two weeks back when BCSI cleared its 6 week base. The breakout has held and now we are looking for that breakout to continue.
Volume: 1.594M Avg Volume: 2.1M
BUY POINT: $47.11 Volume=2.5M Target=$56.65 Stop=$45.21
POSITION: IYU AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bcsi.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$74.02; +2.91; optionable): Chinese education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. EDU is making the second test of the late September breakout from its 11 week double bottom with handle base. Nice couple of runs higher, gapping to the upside two Monday's back. It faded Friday and then Monday gapped lower and sold back through the 18 day EMA, filling that gap. It then turned and surged higher on rising, above average volume, closing sharply higher. Nice test and the buyers came back in so we are ready to pick up some more positions as it continues the move.
Volume: 558.6K Avg Volume: 462.639K
BUY POINT: $74.55 Volume=550K Target=$85.75 Stop=$71.22
POSITION: EDU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/edu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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