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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/22/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$316.26; +0.15; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07 after close
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. BIDU is working quietly along the 18 day EMA (308.57) on lower and lower volume the past week and a half, holding up at near support after the hard drop two Thursdays back on the FOMC minutes. After the strong run in September through early this month when it broke out from a 9 week base it needed a rest and it its taking it at support. Nice, easy move ahead of earnings, and the pullback is good ahead of the result. Looking to get in ahead of earnings; risky yes, but we anticipate strong results to make us some strong dollars.
Volume: 4.52M Avg Volume: 5.453M
BUY POINT: $321.00 Volume=6M Target=$369.85 Stop=$312.22
POSITION: BDU AC - Jan. $320c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bidu.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
CELG (Celgene--$69.70; -0.26; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07 before the open
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. This is what you like to see ahead of earnings from a strong stock that has had a good run: a nice low volume pullback. Trade was up on Friday, but it was for all stocks. Monday it finished the pullback, tapping and holding the 50 day EMA (68.36) on the low. It rebounded to close basically flat. Looking for CELG to continue higher ahead of earnings and looking to move in as it does. A leader that needed a test after the September breakout from its 14 week base, CELG has come back to test key support and held the breakout as well. Set up well so just waiting for the bounce higher.
Volume: 3.881M Avg Volume: 3.978M
BUY POINT: $70.22 Volume=4.1M Target=$80.95 Stop=$68.22
POSITION: LQH AN - Jan. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/celg.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$115.18; +5.08; optionable): GPS systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. GRMN is working laterally along the 18 day EMA (110.86) the past week and one-half, taking a breather after the early October test of the 50 day EMA on a gap lower. It held that support and rebounded on solid trade. It has held the move and Monday bounced up off the 18 day on stronger, above average volume. Predictions of a weaker holiday season have some talking about GRMN and related stocks, but it looks good for a pre-holiday break higher.
Volume: 5.173M Avg Volume: 4.677M
BUY POINT: $116.21 Volume=6.5M Target=$137.45 Stop=$110.75
POSITION: RZJ AC - Jan. $115c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$39.16; +1.77; optionable): Graphics chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. NVDA is in a continuing run higher after its breakout in late August. We made some solid money earlier in the run and then waited for it to set up for the next move. We watched it in a two week lateral move above the 18 day EMA (37.05) and then it gapped higher last Wednesday as we watched. Smooth move. It tested on Friday, however, and then held the 18 day EMA Monday and bounced higher on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking to move in as NVDA continues the break higher on the backs of the likes of AAPL and RIMM.
Volume: 13.441M Avg Volume: 13.805M
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=15M Target=$47.55 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: UVA AU - Jan. $37.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$88.50; -0.13; optionable): Online airplane tickets, hotels, rental cars
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PCLN last tested the 50 day EMA (now at 84.93) in early August and then rallied up the 18 day EMA (90.17) through mid-month. It is now making another test of the 50 day EMA, tapping at that on the Monday intraday low and then rebounding to close flat. Volume remained low on the session as it has for the past month. Looking for a bounce higher on some better volume and play the run to 100.
Volume: 622.27K Avg Volume: 1.195M
BUY POINT: $90.31 Volume=1.4M Target=$99.95 Stop=$87.39
POSITION: PUZ AR - Jan. $90c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcln.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 10/22/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$46.78; -0.82; optionable): PC security software and hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 9-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking at a new buy on BCSI as it tapped at the 50 day EMA (40.14) on the Monday low and rebounded to recoup most of its loss, moving up to the 10 day EMA (46.96) on the close. Looking for it to continue back up after this test of the breakout move from two weeks back when BCSI cleared its 6 week base. The breakout has held and now we are looking for that breakout to continue.
Volume: 1.594M Avg Volume: 2.1M
BUY POINT: $47.11 Volume=2.5M Target=$56.65 Stop=$45.21
POSITION: IYU AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$74.02; +2.91; optionable): Chinese education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. EDU is making the second test of the late September breakout from its 11 week double bottom with handle base. Nice couple of runs higher, gapping to the upside two Monday's back. It faded Friday and then Monday gapped lower and sold back through the 18 day EMA, filling that gap. It then turned and surged higher on rising, above average volume, closing sharply higher. Nice test and the buyers came back in so we are ready to pick up some more positions as it continues the move.
Volume: 558.6K Avg Volume: 462.639K
BUY POINT: $74.55 Volume=550K Target=$85.75 Stop=$71.22
POSITION: EDU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/edu.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/17/2007
ALGN (Align Tech--$27.58; +0.53; optionable): Medical appliances (transparent braces)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/algn.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped lower but then reversed to hold the 10 day EMA on the close and more importantly staying in the handle of its base. Still looking for the break higher out of this nice pattern, just needing some more volume as it showed last Wednesday. To recap: ALGN gapped higher last Wednesday on strong volume as it tried the breakout from its 12 week base that formed just below a new all-time high. We were watching the pattern develop, and that strong volume caught our attention. It could not hold the move on Wednesday what with the market up and down and back up, but we like the pattern and the action, looking for the continued break to the upside to give us the buy point.
Volume: 843.965K Avg Volume: 1.191M
BUY POINT: $28.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$34.38 Stop=$26.14
POSITION: CUA AE - Jan. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/algn.html
Play Date: 10/18/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$43.54; -0.71; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower but then recovered to hold the 18 day EMA on the close. That keeps it in the test and still looking for the break higher on some rising trade to give us the entry by showing us it is ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: Volume jumped back above average Thursday as BEAV made the bounce off the 18 day EMA after testing that level the prior three sessions as it came back to near support to test the early October breakout from its 10 week cup with handle base. This base formed below the all-time high hit back in 1997, and after this consolidation it looks ready to move to a new high. Excellent action from an excellent stock that is ready to continue to that new high.
Volume: 921.138K Avg Volume: 1.134M
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=1.7M Target=$53.00 Stop=$43.11
POSITION: BQV AI - Jan. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 10/18/2007
CMC (Commercial Metals--$33.41; -0.68; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped lower with most metals but held the 18 day EMA on the close, showing a doji at that level. Just waiting for this test to end and for CMC to show us the break higher once more. To recap: Volume surged Thursday as CMC started the breakout from its 13 week base. Nicely formed pattern that is a beautiful foundation for the break and run higher. Metals led higher, needed to base, did so, and are now making the break higher. Ready to move in as CMC continues higher on this great breakout.
Volume: 1.664M Avg Volume: 1.439M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: CMC CG - Mar. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmc.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
EJ (E-House China Holdings--$26.95; -0.36; optionable): Real estate agency services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ej.html
EARNINGS: Third week November
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tried to make the move Monday but faded back on the close, but still holding the 10 day EMA (26.88) on the close. Still looking for that break higher. To recap: A new issue in August, EJ rallied nicely, gapping higher to start October as new money was put to work in the market and the stock. It rallied to 30 and then came back to test last week in the market chop. Friday it tested lower and below the 18 day EMA, filling the gap from early October and then bouncing higher for a gain on the session on some strong volume. Like that gap fill and the strength in the otherwise weak market. Looks ready to move and we are ready to move in as EJ continues higher.
Volume: 1.046M Avg Volume: 910.7K
BUY POINT: $27.92 Volume=1.4M Target=$33.85 Stop=$26.24
POSITION: EJ BE - Feb. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ej.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
ELN (Elan--$22.95; -0.07; optionable): Drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eln.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in the excellent test, holding at the 10 day EMA Monday on very low volume. Great set up, just waiting for the break higher. To recap: A bit on the defensive side, but you have to love the pattern. ELN broke out Monday with a big gap higher, clearing a 14 week cup with handle base (that formed one of those reverse head and shoulder patterns we so often see at the bottom of a cup). Nicely formed base that took it to a three year high. In the market chop the rest of the week ELN tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (22.83) on the lows and on much lower volume. That shows few sellers, just easing back and setting to move higher again. Our favorite upside entry point is the first breakout test and ELN is set up beautifully.
Volume: 1.434M Avg Volume: 4.137M
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=4.2M Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ELN AX - Jan. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eln.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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