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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/23/2007
CAM (Cooper Cameron--$100.97; +3.40; optionable): Oil and gas service company. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cam.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: CAM broke higher out of a short 6 week consolidation in August and rallied up the 10 day EMA (100.21) through the second week of October when it went ballistic for 2.5 sessions. That peaked out the run and CAM needed a deeper test. It faded to the 10 day EMA and looked ready to move higher, but in the Friday selling it cracked. On Monday it tested further, coming back to the early October lateral consolidation range at 95. It tapped that level and bounced. It continued the move Tuesday, clearing the 10 day EMA on the close. Nice recovery and still looks ready to rise from here. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce in its pre-split move.
Volume: 2.211M Avg Volume: 2.08M
BUY POINT: $101.48 Volume=2.5M Target=$115.95 Stop=$98.45
POSITION: CAM AX - Jan. $100c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cam.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/23/2007
PH (Parker Hannifin--$77.73; +1.04; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Split early in the month, but this was just part of the formation of a new short base that is setting up the next break higher (a 6 week reverse head and shoulders). PH broke higher in mid-September from an 8 week base but immediately fell into the current base to consolidate the move. Very good looking base on base pattern that has set PH up for the breakout to a new high.
Volume: 1.369M Avg Volume: 2.036M
BUY POINT: $78.15 Volume=3.1M Target=$88.45 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: PH AO - Jan. $75c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ph.html
New Leader Plays: Could turn into split plays for us
Play Date: 10/23/2007
NYX (NYSE Euronext--$87.70; +3.36; optionable): Stock exchanges
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-07
STATUS: Cup. NYX came off the bottom of a long 10 month base in mid-September, rallying to the 200 day SMA (83.79) two weeks back. It faded from that resistance, but then gapped higher Friday as the market sold. It held the break Monday, and then surged up Tuesday on another strong shot of volume. That made a higher high for NYX and puts it in excellent shape to make a run up to the prior highs between 105 and 110. It won't run up to their in a straight line, of course, but it is in great shape to make a steady climb to test those old highs.
Volume: 7.663M Avg Volume: 4.708M
BUY POINT: $88.05 Volume=5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$85.89
POSITION: NYX AQ - Jan. $85c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyx.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
SGR (Shaw Group--$68.10; +2.45; optionable): Power plant construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: 10-10-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SGR gapped higher on its strong earnings two weeks back, clearing a 12 week base as it did so, rallying to a new all-time high as it made the first run off the breakout move. It has come back to test, selling back in the Friday selling and tapping the 18 day EMA on the Monday low and then reversing. Gapped higher Tuesday though volume was lower. Looking for a continued move higher and some more volume Wednesday to give us the entry point. Always like it when the earnings are already out and it is testing the breakout after a good move on earnings.
Volume: 864.6K Avg Volume: 1.207M
BUY POINT: $69.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$80.45 Stop=$66.11
POSITION: SGR AN - Jan. $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sgr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Earnings 10-22-07. No announcement with earnings but they were huge and so was Apple's move.
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07. No split announcement we have heard today.
ATK: Tentative 11-1-07
ATW: Researching date. Trying to make a move off the 90 day SMA as the drillers recover.
BG: Forecast 10-26-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07. Nice gap higher off the 18 day EMA.
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Researching date
BUCY: Early November.
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-25-07 before the open. Has not split in the past but set up nicely.
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: 11-1-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast early November
OII: Forecast 10-31-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07. Nice surge gave us a great entry point.
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
RRC: Tentatively set for 10-24-07 after the close
SCHN:
SII: Forecast 10-23-07. Thus far no word on a split.
SRDX: Researching date
STLD: Researching date
TECH: Tentatively set for 10-24-07
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. May be a bit early on this one.
TIF: Last week of November
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/23/2007
GENZ (Genzyme--$73.51; +1.80; optionable): Biotechnology. May give us an announcement with earnings on 10-24-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Big surge two weeks back, gapping higher out of a long, long base. It has come back the past week to test the move, holding at the 10 day EMA (71.74). It showed a big doji on the candlestick chart Monday and then bounced Tuesday on rising volume. Very nice test and fill of the gap, and ready to move in as GENZ continues the break higher. Did not release when it was going to let out the earnings news tomorrow.
Volume: 2.97M Avg Volume: 3.023M
BUY POINT: $74.12 Volume=3.2M Target=$83.95 Stop=$71.65
POSITION: GAA AV - Jan. $72.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$147.21; +5.53; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Reported some great earnings and is in the process of bouncing off the test of the 50 day EMA (140.25) that acted as the test of the breakout from its 8 week base. Made a full test and then surged higher Tuesday on some very strong volume. Looking to move in as PCP continues the surge higher and follows the strong money flow to a new all-time high.
Volume: 2.548M Avg Volume: 1.523M
BUY POINT: $147.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$169.95 Stop=$144.69
POSITION: PCP CJ - Mar. $150c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/08/2007
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$75.00; +1.36; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. SCHN continues working laterally above the 10 and 18 day EMA in its three week consolidation of the September surge higher. Gapped higher Tuesday, but volume did not move with it. Excellent set up and looking for the breakout on some volume to give us the buy signal.
Volume: 389.164K Avg Volume: 519.977K
BUY POINT: $74.77 Volume=820K Target=$91.95 Stop=$71.97
POSITION: SQQ AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/schn.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
SRDX (Surmodics--$52.51; +1.17; optionable): Drug delivery services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srdx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher but volume did not go with it. Still a great set up for the breakout move; just being patient. To recap: Making a higher low the past two weeks in a tight lateral range over the 10 day EMA (50.60), setting up for a breakout and a run at the all-time high hit back in 2001. Nice 15 week base making higher lows below a constant top at roughly 52, SRCX is building pressure from below for the breakout move. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and looking for a break higher from this tightening pattern.
Volume: 99.673K Avg Volume: 148.171K
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here if it can get some more volume (orig. $52.05) Volume=234K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.97
POSITION: UZF AJ - Jan. $50c (59 delta, 202 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srdx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/11/2007
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$40.73; +1.03; optionable): Casual restaurant
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher and put in a solid price move, but volume did not run with it. Just look for some more trade to move in with the buy. To recap: A big runner in late 2006 and early 2007, BWLD needed a breather after the move and has spent the past 20 weeks forming a new base to lay the foundation for a new breakout. Nice volume as it bounced to start the month and now a low volume fade to form the handle, Thursday closing right at the 10 day EMA on continued below average volume. May take a couple more sessions to finish the handle, and we are looking to move in as BWLD rebounds and shows us the breakout.
Volume: 279.304K Avg Volume: 533.848K
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here (orig. $40.55). Volume=800K Target=$50.65 Stop=$38.58
POSITION: BQU CH - Mar. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwld.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$47.30; +0.52; optionable): PC security software and hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 9-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher Tuesday but faded to close at the 10 day EMA; no volume to keep the move going. Looking for it to hold here and resume the move on some more trade. To recap: Looking at a new buy on BCSI as it tapped at the 50 day EMA (40.14) on the Monday low and rebounded to recoup most of its loss, moving up to the 10 day EMA (46.96) on the close. Looking for it to continue back up after this test of the breakout move from two weeks back when BCSI cleared its 6 week base. The breakout has held and now we are looking for that breakout to continue.
Volume: 1.13M Avg Volume: 2.139M
BUY POINT: On a bounce up from here (orig. $47.11) Volume=2.5M Target=$56.65 Stop=$45.21
POSITION: IYU AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$38.75; +0.37; optionable): Coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped lower Monday but managed to hold the 10 day EMA. Showed a nice tight doji there Tuesday on lower trade. Still set up to give us the breakout move. To recap: When times get a bit iffy the consumer must turn to coffee or some other bracer. GMCR is one of those companies that has a great product name that is also addictive (the product, not the name). It thus continues to move higher and higher, and is now set to make a new breakout from its latest base, a 10 week jobber. It is coming off the 10 day EMA, rising on stronger volume Thursday and Friday to the breakout point. It closed off its high and at the session low Friday, but it still looks super to percolate to a new all-time high.
Volume: 224.412K Avg Volume: 400.332K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=450K Target=$47.98 Stop=$38.37
POSITION: QGM CH - Mar. $40c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gmcr.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
IMO (Imperial Oil Ltd.--$49.25; +0.39; optionable): Oil & gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imo.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher nicely, but could hot hold the move, fading to flat on low trade. Still set up to make the move but needs to show some more trade to give it some staying power. To recap: A bit choppy to end the week as energy was volatile, but there was an important feature: no breakdown, just a nice easy test of the 10 day EMA (48.93). That puts IMO in excellent position to resume the breakout move from its 20 week base. Tried the move Monday and again Wednesday, then faded to end the week. Still very nice in its pattern that fully tested the huge May run on the August low. That puts it in excellent position to make a new and serious upside run once last week's troubles in energy are blown off like so much unwanted gas (that is an oil patch reference by the way).
Volume: 167.6K Avg Volume: 196.523K
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=300K Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.39
POSITION: IMO BJ - Feb. $50c (45 delta, 114 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imo.html
Play Date: 10/22/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$39.35; +0.19; optionable): Graphics chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher, sold off, then recovered, all on very low, below average volume. That kept us on the sidelines, but like the recovery, and on a continued move higher from here on a bit more volume we are buyers. To recap: NVDA is in a continuing run higher after its breakout in late August. We made some solid money earlier in the run and then waited for it to set up for the next move. We watched it in a two week lateral move above the 18 day EMA (37.05) and then it gapped higher last Wednesday as we watched. Smooth move. It tested on Friday, however, and then held the 18 day EMA Monday and bounced higher on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking to move in as NVDA continues the break higher on the backs of the likes of AAPL and RIMM.
Volume: 7.344M Avg Volume: 13.805M
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=15M Target=$47.55 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: UVA AU - Jan. $37.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
SNHY (Sun Hydraulics--$33.56; +0.66; optionable): Parts for fluid power systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snhy.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in excellent shape even after the Friday and Monday action. Indeed, it tapped the 50 day EMA on the Monday low and then rebounded positive. Gapped higher Tuesday though on lower trade. Still looks super and looking for the break higher so we can move in. To recap: Nice break higher to end September as SNHY rallied higher to form the right side of its 16 week base. Its momentum carried it into the second week of October, and then it started a nice, easy lower volume pullback to form the handle. Friday it undercut the 18 day EMA (32.55) but it was on low volume and is still in the test, so that was no issues. Just going to be patient and let it finish setting up and then when it shows the break higher on some good trade we will move in with the buy and get some hydraulics.
Volume: 130.611K Avg Volume: 240.16K
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=358K Target=$41.95 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: SQA CG - Mar. $30c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snhy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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