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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/24/2007
BGC (General Cable--$71.23; -0.77; optionable): Cable and wire
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgc.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking a new run at BGC as it sets back up for a new run. Nice test back this past week, tapping at the 90 day SMA (69.20) on the Monday and Wednesday lows, then rebounding modestly. Forming a nice handle to its 15 week base, and all we have to do is let BGC continue to set up and then show us the breakout move.
Volume: 1.042M Avg Volume: 1.712M
BUY POINT: $72.11 Volume=2.6M Target=$82.95 Stop=$69.48
POSITION: BGC BN - Feb. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bgc.html
Play Date: 10/24/2007
CRNT (Ceragon Networks--$18.63; -0.25; optionable): Point to point wireless backhaul solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a short handle to its short 4 week base formed using the 50 day EMA as support on the lows. Came to life in May after a long, long dormancy. Great run and it needed a breather to set back up for a new run. Strong volume Monday as it announced some excellent earnings. Spent Tuesday and Wednesday testing; may take another session or two to complete the handle. We just need to be ready to move in as it shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 1.418M Avg Volume: 1.601M
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$23.48 Stop=$18.18
POSITION: QMC CW - Mar. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crnt.html
Play Date: 10/24/2007
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$43.96; +0.94; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GILD broke out from a 22 week cup with handle base to start the month. It has traded in a very choppy range, jerking up and down the past two weeks. Investors seem to have gotten a handle on the earnings released last week, and Wednesday volume moved up above average as it cleared the recent highs. Like that action in a weaker market, indicating this a stock getting money as investors hesitate in other areas. Looking for a continued move up to move in.
Volume: 8.203M Avg Volume: 7.609M
BUY POINT: $44.12 Volume=10M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: GDQ AV - Jan. $42.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gild.html
Play Date: 10/24/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$225.12; +1.36; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: December
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Of all the financials, Goldman is the stoutest, having rallied hard off the August low up to its May and June highs. It broke higher to start the second week of October, but reversed. It has sold back to tap at the 50 day EMA (211.89) Monday and Wednesday on the lows, then rebounding nicely to show gains, even on Wednesday. Volume jumped back up to just above average as it did, showing buyers moving in. Much of the market is in trouble but GS seems to just shake it off. Looking to move in as GS continues the bounce up off the 50 day EMA test. It is volatile, but volatile to the upside.
Volume: 12.652M Avg Volume: 13.54M
BUY POINT: $223.12 Volume=15M Target=$255.00 Stop=$215.65
POSITION: GPY AF - Jan. $230c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
Play Date: 10/24/2007
MCD (McDonalds--$57.15; +0.18; optionable): Big Macs and fries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Market is somewhat questionable as to recession or not, but even if that happens MCD is the kind of stock that will perform well. It broke higher in September, clearing a reverse head and shoulders base. It has rallied and is now making the second test of that run, fading back to the 18 day EMA (56.23), or more accurately, letting the 18 day EMA move up to it. Nice lateral move and now it looks ready to continue the breakout run. Being this is just the second test of the breakout move MCD still has plenty of room to run as it sells more quarter pounders, homestyle burgers, etc.
Volume: 8.25M Avg Volume: 8.597M
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=12M Target=$63.75 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: MCD AK - Jan. $55c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mcd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/24/2007
DIA (DJ30 ETF--$136.50; +0.08; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. As the Dow's pattern is weak we want to be ready to move in if it should break down. Hard sell off Friday below the 50 day EMA (136.88) and then a low volume rebound on the Dow back up to tap that level. This action indicates a lack of buyers on the rebound, and if it rolls over we will look to make a play on the downside run. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 22.584M Avg Volume: 17.641M
BUY POINT: $136.05 Volume=20M Target=$133.80 Stop=$136.95
POSITION: DAZ WG - Nov. $137p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 10/24/2007
SPY (SP500 ETF--$151.48; -0.28; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Similar to the Dow, SP500 sold off hard through the 50 day EMA (151.51) last Friday and has made a lower volume rebound to test that level. Critical juncture for the large cap index and we just want to be ready if the market rolls over and SPY goes over with it; with this week pattern it is likely to do that on any further weakness.
Volume: 326.694M Avg Volume: 214.384M
BUY POINT: $151.18 Volume=20M Target=$147.70 Stop=$151.68
POSITION: SYH WV - Nov. $152p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/18/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$44.86; +0.27; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Wednesday but no volume. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low, filling the gap and more, but then recovered for a positive close. Looking for some more upside and volume to give us the buy. To recap: Volume jumped back above average Thursday as BEAV made the bounce off the 18 day EMA after testing that level the prior three sessions as it came back to near support to test the early October breakout from its 10 week cup with handle base. This base formed below the all-time high hit back in 1997, and after this consolidation it looks ready to move to a new high. Excellent action from an excellent stock that is ready to continue to that new high.
Volume: 674.327K Avg Volume: 1.133M
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=1.7M Target=$53.00 Stop=$43.11
POSITION: BQV AI - Jan. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 10/18/2007
CMC (Commercial Metals--$34.40; +0.63; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Fell back to the 18 day EMA to start this week and looks to be finding its footing there. Wednesday it tapped it again but then broke higher on some much stronger, above average volume. Nice action and looks ready to make the break higher to give us an entry point. To recap: Volume surged Thursday as CMC started the breakout from its 13 week base. Nicely formed pattern that is a beautiful foundation for the break and run higher. Metals led higher, needed to base, did so, and are now making the break higher. Ready to move in as CMC continues higher on this great breakout.
Volume: 1.61M Avg Volume: 1.442M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: CMC CG - Mar. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmc.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
ELN (Elan--$22.97; -0.33; optionable): Drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eln.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Tested down to the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounded to hold the 10 day on the close. Still showing excellent relative strength as it sets up for the next move higher. To recap: A bit on the defensive side, but you have to love the pattern. ELN broke out Monday with a big gap higher, clearing a 14 week cup with handle base (that formed one of those reverse head and shoulder patterns we so often see at the bottom of a cup). Nicely formed base that took it to a three year high. In the market chop the rest of the week ELN tested the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (22.83) on the lows and on much lower volume. That shows few sellers, just easing back and setting to move higher again. Our favorite upside entry point is the first breakout test and ELN is set up beautifully.
Volume: 2.401M Avg Volume: 3.929M
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=4.2M Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ELN AX - Jan. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eln.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
GLNG (Golar LNG--$25.64; -0.13; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glng.html
EARNINGS: 11-30-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Took a day of rest after the strong Tuesday move on strong volume, fading back to the 18 day EMA on the low then rebounding to flat on lower trade. The lower volume shows no selling, just a shakeout. Just going to be patient and let it make the break higher for us. To recap: Looking for GLNG to make us some more money after it tested its 50 day EMA (22.48) on the Monday low and reversed. Nice breakout in the third week of September from its 10 week base, and this is the first test of that move; a bit deeper than usual what with the Friday selling, but a great recovery. Looking to move in as GLNG continues higher toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 425.664K Avg Volume: 432.021K
BUY POINT: $25.95 Volume=445K Target=$31.22 Stop=$24.55
POSITION: QGL CE - Mar. $25c (63 delta, 60 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glng.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
SLT (Sterlite Industries--$21.91; -0.14; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slt.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another solid mover on Tuesday that took the day off Wednesday. After that break higher SLT paused to test back modestly and then rebound. Low volume; want to see more trade as it continues higher and moves through the buy point. Very solid. To recap: Another stock that made us some great money in its September and early October run as it broke out from its first base and rallied higher. It sold off sharply the past two weeks, but on Monday it found support at the 50 day EMA on the intraday low and surged back up. It continued the move Tuesday on continues solid volume. A new issue in June and has its first base under its belt. Looking to move in as SLT continues the run higher.
Volume: 1.649M Avg Volume: 1.466M
BUY POINT: $22.22 Volume=2M Target=$26.48 Stop=$20.88
POSITION: SLT CD - Mar. $20c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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