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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$147.34; -1.53; optionable): Farm and construction equipment. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the early September breakout and run up the 18 day EMA (148.53) into mid-October, DE has dropped to test deeper support at the 50 day EMA (142.35) the past week, making a short double bottom at that level. Volume moved up to average Thursday, and looking for even stronger trade as DE breaks higher through the 10 day EMA (148.92) and gives us a buy as it stars the next trend higher off of this test of the key 50 day EMA.
Volume: 2.638M Avg Volume: 2.74M
BUY POINT: $149.11 Volume=3M Target=$164.95 Stop=$144.95
POSITION: DE AJ - Jan. $150c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2007
CNX (Consol Energy--$53.67; +3.63; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07 pre-market
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. Strong earnings propelled CNX sharply higher on strong volume Thursday as it cleared the October high that was the breakout peak hit after the early October breakout. CNX formed a very nice 18 week pattern and then shot higher starting the second week of October. Nice rally then a test starting with last Fridays selling. It held the 18 day EMA (49.42) on the lows and then shot higher Thursday. Nice action. Looking to move in as it continues higher and then adding some positions on the first test of the move. Very solid.
Volume: 4.669M Avg Volume: 2.909M
BUY POINT: $53.92 Volume=3M Target=$61.97 Stop=$51.89
POSITION: CNX AX - Jan. $52.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnx.html
Play Date: 10/25/2007
STR (Questar--$55.05; +2.99; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/str.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Volume jumped well above average Thursday as STR announced earnings after the Wednesday close and gapped upside. It powered into the close, clearing the mid-October peak that marked the start of the handle to its 14 week base. This base formed after the March to July run that took STR to a new high. This pullback has se the foundation for the next move and that started on Thursday. Looking to step in and buy as STR continues higher and then again when it makes the first test of the breakout move and then starts back upside.
Volume: 1.84M Avg Volume: 1.272M
BUY POINT: $55.38 Volume=1.3M Target=$63.75 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: STR AK - Jan. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/str.html
Play Date: 10/25/2007
TISI (Team, Inc.--$30.08; +1.14; no options): Construction and maintenance services for high temperature and high pressure piping systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tisi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-3-07 after the close
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. TISI broke higher in early September, clearing a 9 week flat trading range. Nice rally ensued as TISI reached 32 on the peak. It spend the past three weeks coming back to test on overall lower volume. Thursday volume bounced up above average as TISI bounced higher off some support at 28 where it consolidated to end September. Looking for more strong trade as TISI continues this break higher.
Volume: 152.346K Avg Volume: 149.031K
BUY POINT: $30.75 Volume=200K Target=$36.48 Stop=$28.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tisi.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2007
AGU (Agrium--$57.55; +2.54; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume surged Thursday as AGU jumped off the week long test of the 18 day EMA (54.70). It broke out from a 9 week base in early September and has rallied up the 18 day EMA, using that as support. It made us some great money on the early stage of the run, and it is just starting its third leg higher. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 such runs after the breakout, and that means AGU has plenty of room to make us some more good money as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.222M Avg Volume: 1.656M
BUY POINT: $57.72 Volume=1.7M Target=$66.45 Stop=$54.65
POSITION: AGU AK - Jan. $55c (64 delta0 &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agu.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Earnings 10-22-07. No announcement with earnings but liked the result nonetheless.
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07. Fell to the 50 day EMA and held.
ATK: Tentative 11-1-07
ATW: Researching date. Continued the rebound off the 90 day SMA as the drillers continued their recovery.
BG: Forecast 10-26-07. Big gap higher on earnings broke BG out of a 3 week consolidation. No split announcement but a nice move.
BHP: Looking to the first week of November as no announcement was forthcoming this week.
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BUCY: Early November.
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07. Did not give us the move higher and then it tanked on its results that provided weaker guidance than the street wanted.
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CMI: Tentatively 10-25-07. Followed the string of disappointments by the big name industrial equipment stocks.
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07. Was not ready to announced and it failed to impress with its results.
CRDN: Forecast 10-24-07. Never broke higher for us and it faded through the 50 day SMA on earnings.
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07. No announcement but CVX is bouncing off the 90 day SMA test.
DO: Forecast 10-25-07 before the open. Did not announce on Thursday but the results were good and it held the 18 day EMA on the low. Nice set up to break higher and we will see if it can.
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07. Announced the split.
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: 11-1-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast early November
OII: Forecast 10-31-07
PCP: Research date
PCU: Tentatively 10-26-07. No work on a split yet.
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07
RRC: Tentatively set for 10-24-07 after the close. Announced strong earnings and bounced but no split as of yet.
SCHN: Potential for 10-29-07
SRDX: Researching date
STLD: Researching date
TECH: It was a long shot to announce and it didn't.
TEX: Tentatively 10-25-07. Crapped out on the earnings and gapped lower
TIF: Last week of November
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/26/2007
CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources--$78.86; +2.53; optionable): Canadian tar sands, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnq.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CNQ broke higher Thursday, moving out of the current 6 week base that formed right on the heels of the September breakout from a similar 7 week base. Nice base on base pattern, and that tends to really work out the sellers and clear the path for a strong run higher. With oil over $90/bbl, these stocks have a lot of money heading their way.
Volume: 2.188M Avg Volume: 1.974M
BUY POINT: $79.11 Volume=2M Target=$90.95 Stop=$76.42
POSITION: CNQ AP - Jan. $80c (49 delta) or CNQ AO - Jan. $75c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cscnq.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/23/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$150.10; +0.06; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Still set up right at the cusp of clearing the late September and early October highs at 50. A good surge of volume and a move through 150 is a buy. To recap: Reported some great earnings and is in the process of bouncing off the test of the 50 day EMA (140.25) that acted as the test of the breakout from its 8 week base. Made a full test and then surged higher Tuesday on some very strong volume. Looking to move in as PCP continues the surge higher and follows the strong money flow to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.129M Avg Volume: 1.511M
BUY POINT: New: $151.05 (orig. $147.78) Volume=1.6M Target=$169.95 Stop=$144.69
POSITION: PCP CJ - Mar. $150c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
Play Date: 10/08/2007
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$74.61; +0.69; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Another steel stock ready to make the break, working laterally at the 10 day EMA the past three sessions, making a higher low. That often precedes the breakout move, a good ending to this three week laterally range. To recap: SCHN continues working laterally above the 10 and 18 day EMA in its three week consolidation of the September surge higher. Gapped higher Tuesday, but volume did not move with it. Excellent set up and looking for the breakout on some volume to give us the buy signal.
Volume: 248.306K Avg Volume: 514.717K
BUY POINT: $74.77 Volume=820K Target=$91.95 Stop=$71.97
POSITION: SQQ AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/schn.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
SRDX (Surmodics--$51.79; +0.21; optionable): Drug delivery services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srdx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Tried to make the move Thursday but no volume and it peeled back. Still right at the breakout point and just needs some trade. To recap: Making a higher low the past two weeks in a tight lateral range over the 10 day EMA (50.60), setting up for a breakout and a run at the all-time high hit back in 2001. Nice 15 week base making higher lows below a constant top at roughly 52, SRCX is building pressure from below for the breakout move. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and looking for a break higher from this tightening pattern.
Volume: 68.437K Avg Volume: 141.347K
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=234K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.97
POSITION: UZF AJ - Jan. $50c (59 delta, 202 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srdx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/20/2007
IMO (Imperial Oil Ltd.--$50.42; +1.57; optionable): Oil & gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imo.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Continued banging around the past week over 48 as it sets the right shoulder and prepares for the breakout. Looks solid; just needs to show the move. To recap: A bit choppy to end the week as energy was volatile, but there was an important feature: no breakdown, just a nice easy test of the 10 day EMA (48.93). That puts IMO in excellent position to resume the breakout move from its 20 week base. Tried the move Monday and again Wednesday, then faded to end the week. Still very nice in its pattern that fully tested the huge May run on the August low. That puts it in excellent position to make a new and serious upside run once last week's troubles in energy are blown off like so much unwanted gas (that is an oil patch reference by the way).
Volume: 193.4K Avg Volume: 198.702K
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=300K Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.39
POSITION: IMO BJ - Feb. $50c (45 delta, 114 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imo.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
PH (Parker Hannifin--$77.99; -0.62; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Trying to make the break the past two sessions, just lacking a bit of trade to really push it. Still looks super for the breakout move. To recap: Split early in the month, but this was just part of the formation of a new short base that is setting up the next break higher (a 6 week reverse head and shoulders). PH broke higher in mid-September from an 8 week base but immediately fell into the current base to consolidate the move. Very good looking base on base pattern that has set PH up for the breakout to a new high.
Volume: 1.893M Avg Volume: 2.048M
BUY POINT: $78.15 Volume=3.1M Target=$88.45 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: PH AO - Jan. $75c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ph.html
Play Date: 10/20/2007
SNHY (Sun Hydraulics--$32.89; -0.06; optionable): Parts for fluid power systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snhy.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This is one nice pattern with the stock showing three dojis the past three sessions on the 18 day EMA as it puts the finishing touches on the handle to its 15 week base. Just waiting for that strong break higher to show us it is time to buy. To recap: Nice break higher to end September as SNHY rallied higher to form the right side of its 16 week base. Its momentum carried it into the second week of October, and then it started a nice, easy lower volume pullback to form the handle. Friday it undercut the 18 day EMA (32.55) but it was on low volume and is still in the test, so that was no issues. Just going to be patient and let it finish setting up and then when it shows the break higher on some good trade we will move in with the buy and get some hydraulics.
Volume: 102.412K Avg Volume: 230.147K
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=358K Target=$41.95 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: SQA CG - Mar. $30c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snhy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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