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Free Weekend Newsletter

Table Of Contents

1) MARKET SUMMARY

2) PRE-SPLIT PLAY

3) TECHNICAL PLAY

4) COVERED CALL PLAY

5) PUT WRITE

6) IPOs


The following Investment Newsletter is provided by the InvestmentHouse.com family of websites which include StockSplits.net, CoveredCall.Com and TechnicalTraders.com.

    
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1) MARKET SUMMARY

The markets were under fire before the open.

- Markets sell on domestic and global financial worries, CSCO fears, earnings warnings.
- Fed: Futures contract shows another rate cut by January 17.
- Economic numbers continue to be a mess.
- Subscriber Questions
- Team Trades

Click Here to read the full text of our Weekend Market Summary. Topics this weekend include: The Economy, The Markets, This Week's Economic Calendar; What To Expect This Week In The Markets and our popular Team Trades column.

2) STOCK SPLITS

Be sure to read our Stock Splits Manual. Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how.

Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays:

1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength).

We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don’t let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock’s movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down.

Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don’t try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.

USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$28.56; +4.06; no options): Splits 2:1 effective January 8.
Company Profile
STATUS: Well, USPH is a classic example of how a good pattern, even if is a bit ragged, and even if the sector stinks, can give you a great play. Patterns are key, and we missed playing it. The stock broke out of its cup-with-handle, blasting up off of Thursday’s doji at the top of the pattern. We are getting the split Monday, and could get a pullback (too extended to try to catch it here) where we could take positions on a successful test of the 25 level.
PLAY: A move up on continued solid volume (way up at 210,900 Friday; average 36,300) after a test of the 25 range, with stock.


Chart by StockCharts.com

3) A TECHNICAL PLAY

FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$59.19; -0.62; optionable (FTQ): Regional Bank (Midwest)
Company Profile
STATUS: Holding above the 10 day MVA (58.97) after climbing from a low of 57.13 which tested below the 50 day MVA (54.87). The stock ran up on good volume Wednesday in the rally, and is holding in the range of that day’s closing price of 59.69. Looking for a move back up when the market rallies back. Continues with good buying, and high money flow and relative strength. We are looking at the financials to remain in position to do well in a market rally and on further Fed rate cuts.
BUY POINT: Over 61.31 (Tuesday’s intraday high), on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $60 calls to buy (FTQ BL).


Chart by StockCharts.com

4) A COVERED CALL PLAY

ALL Allstate Corp. -- $38.06 -- Feb $37.50 option at $2.5 -- downside protection is 6% -- return if above $37.50 is 5% --
Company Profile
Please note however, we currently believe Allstate will announce its next earnings on about February 7 which is BEFORE these options expire.


Chart by StockCharts.com

5) PUT WRITE

We have a put write for your review for those of you that are interested in this strategy. Since put writing is a "naked" position, please don't enter this trade unless you are very knowledgeable about this type of play. Consider buying puts below the mentioned put as well (ie, a spread position).

WMS - WMS Industries is trading at $18 11/16. The Feb 17.50 puts (WMSNW) are currently trading at $1 5/16.


Chart by StockCharts.com

6) IPOs

On a day when the stock markets were giving back many of their gains from earlier in the week, the IPO market received yet another reminder that conditions for new equity issues are far from healthy. Two more companies, BTI Telecom and Novient, filed to withdraw their IPOs Friday, bringing the total for the week to five. No companies filed for new IPOs this week.

(This IPO story is continued on our website in the IPO Forum.)

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Good Investing! See you right here next week!

Your Friends at
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For return calculations on our covered call, credit spread or put plays Click Here.

The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Eric J. Aafedt of Online Investment Services, LP., or Jon Johnson of Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Eric J. Aafedt or Jon Johnson may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Eric J. Aafedt and Jon Johnson do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter.

Copyright © 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 by Online Investment Services, LP. - All Rights Reserved



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