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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/27/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$90.00; +1.79; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AMZN was a great money maker for us in its prior run that started, as a matter of fact. As AMZN came off a 50 day EMA (87.53) test. AMZN had the misfortune of running up $10 on the day of its earnings announcement, and with that kind of lead in it was hammered on the news, gapping lower Wednesday. It undercut the 50 day EMA on the low but it recovered that session to hold that important support level. It held there Thursday and Friday to conclude the week, moving laterally on lower, average volume. Earnings were stellar, and the fact that AMZN held the 50 day after a great August and September run is fairly typical action, gap lower or not on Wednesday. Thus we are looking for AMZN, which is growing its business at a stellar pace, to start back up off this support and run again, and when it does we want to be ready to buy in when it does.
Volume: 8.83M Avg Volume: 8.703M
BUY POINT: $91.45 Volume=10M Target=$109.75 Stop=$87.31
POSITION: ZQN AR - Jan. $90c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amzn.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
FMCN (Focus Media Holding--$57.06; +2.06; optionable): Chinese advertising service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmcn.html
EARNINGS: Late December
STATUS: Breakout test. FMCN gapped higher the last time it announced earnings (late September), clearing a 10 week cup with handle base with a tremendous move. It has spent the past 4 weeks recovering from the hangover that huge updraft caused. Last week it tested and held 55 twice, forming something of a short double bottom at that price level. Looking to move in as it blows higher from here and we want to see the volume surge as it does.
Volume: 2.446M Avg Volume: 3.01M
BUY POINT: $57.75 Volume=4M Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.94
POSITION: QOH AK - Jan. $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fmcn.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
LFC (China Life Insurance--$101.14; +1.63; optionable): Chinese life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lfc.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. LFC has enjoyed a tremendous run since the August test of the 50 and 90 day MA. It broke higher two weeks back on strong trade but immediately fell back and tested the 18 day EMA to start last week. It bounced and moved laterally above the 10 day EMA (99.27) on low trade, catching a breather here. This is a momentum play, but the China stocks are getting a lot of money and that keeps the momentum going. Looking for LFC to finish this breather this week while holding the 10 day EMA, and then we look to move in as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 964.3K Avg Volume: 2.041M
BUY POINT: $104.68 Volume=3M Target=$119.95 Stop=$99.89
POSITION: LFC AT - Jan. $100c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lfc.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
MR (Mindray Medical Intl.--$38.61; +0.51; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mr.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A new issue in September 2006, MR has made us money before, and it is set up to do so again. It just came off of a strong May to September run that peaked near 45 to start October. It has since dropped back to the 50 day EMA (38.37) this month, making a rather typical periodic test of this key level after a strong move up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It has settled in at the 50 day on some lower volume last week as the trading range narrowed. Looking for a surge back up through the 18 day EMA (39.64) on some rising, above average volume to show us it is ready to move higher again and cue our buy.
Volume: 552.4K Avg Volume: 875K
BUY POINT: $39.75 Volume=1.2M Target=$47.75 Stop=$37.97
POSITION: MR AG - Jan. $35c (68 delta) or MR AH - Jan $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mr.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$81.57; +2.63; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: Mid-November
STATUS: Flying plateau. MT formed a 4 week tight, flat range above the 10 day EMA (78.70), consolidating the September breakout and run from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base. The flying plateau got a bit choppy with a couple of gaps lower the past two weeks, but each time it gapped right back up the next session. Friday MT started the breakout above the plateau; as it continues this breakout move we make our move into the play.
Volume: 2.217M Avg Volume: 2.471M
BUY POINT: $81.88 Volume=2.8M Target=$97.95 Stop=$78.65
POSITION: MT AP - Jan. $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$35.50; +2.01; optionable): Steel & Iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Why not another steel company? We can see which one makes the best move and buy in or we can buy them both. RIO announced earnings after the Thursday close and gapped higher Friday, moving toward the breakout from its 4 week lateral range it has used to consolidate the strong August through September run after breaking out from an 8 week base. Volume moved up just above average Friday as it made the move, and we want to see continued stronger trade as RIO makes the break out of this consolidation range.
Volume: 24.651M Avg Volume: 29.676M
BUY POINT: $36.12 Volume=34M Target=$43.95 Stop=$33.89
POSITION: RIO AG - Jan. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rio.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
SNP (China Petroleum & Chemical--$150.51; +0.02; optionable): Chinese oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snp.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SNP broke out from a 12 week base in late September, rallied nicely, tested, and then exploded higher the second week of October, reaching 178.91 on the high. It spent the past 7 sessions testing the move, coming back to hold just over the 18 day EMA (146.13) as it tests on lower, below average volume. This is just the second test of the breakout, and though the second leg higher was a monster, that still leaves SNP with plenty of upside. Heck, it can hit our initial target without having to move past that October high; have to like that. Three nice dojis to end the week, and looks as if SNP is just about ripe to resume the move higher.
Volume: 511.2K Avg Volume: 760.103K
BUY POINT: $151.88 Volume=900K Target=$174.95 Stop=$147.68
POSITION: SNP AJ - Jan. $150c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/24/2007
CRNT (Ceragon Networks--$18.20; +0.12; optionable): Point to point wireless backhaul solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice tight hammer doji at the 10 day EMA on Friday as CRNT puts the finishing touch on the handle to its nice little base. Nice lower and lower volume as it tested, and CRNT looks locked and loaded to make the next breakout this week. To recap: Forming a short handle to its short 4 week base formed using the 50 day EMA as support on the lows. Came to life in May after a long, long dormancy. Great run and it needed a breather to set back up for a new run. Strong volume Monday as it announced some excellent earnings. Spent Tuesday and Wednesday testing; may take another session or two to complete the handle. We just need to be ready to move in as it shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 583.75K Avg Volume: 1.57M
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$23.48 Stop=$18.18
POSITION: QMC CW - Mar. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crnt.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
GLNG (Golar LNG--$26.00; +0.17; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glng.html
EARNINGS: 11-30-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Lost volume to end the week and just drifted up modestly to close out the action. Nice strong break higher Tuesday after reversing Monday, and now just waiting for GLNG to gather itself and make the next move higher after the strong bounce off the test of its 50 day EMA. To recap: Looking for GLNG to make us some more money after it tested its 50 day EMA (22.48) on the Monday low and reversed. Nice breakout in the third week of September from its 10 week base, and this is the first test of that move; a bit deeper than usual what with the Friday selling, but a great recovery. Looking to move in as GLNG continues higher toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 231.098K Avg Volume: 426.239K
BUY POINT: $25.95 Volume=445K Target=$31.22 Stop=$24.55
POSITION: QGL CE - Mar. $25c (63 delta, 60 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glng.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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