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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 10/27/2007
AMRI (Albany Molecular Research--$18.20; +1.57; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amri.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Strong volume Friday as AMRI broke higher from its 15 week triangle that used the 50 day EMA (15.87) to make its higher and higher lows below a constant top at 17. Nice strong price and volume move that broke AMRI to a 4.5 year high. Very nice and looking to move in as AMRI continues the breakout move.
Volume: 365.5K Avg Volume: 150K
BUY POINT: $18.34 Volume=225K Target=$22.12 Stop=$17.28
POSITION: QAM AW - Jan. $17.50c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amri.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$90.00; +1.79; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AMZN was a great money maker for us in its prior run that started, as a matter of fact. As AMZN came off a 50 day EMA (87.53) test. AMZN had the misfortune of running up $10 on the day of its earnings announcement, and with that kind of lead in it was hammered on the news, gapping lower Wednesday. It undercut the 50 day EMA on the low but it recovered that session to hold that important support level. It held there Thursday and Friday to conclude the week, moving laterally on lower, average volume. Earnings were stellar, and the fact that AMZN held the 50 day after a great August and September run is fairly typical action, gap lower or not on Wednesday. Thus we are looking for AMZN, which is growing its business at a stellar pace, to start back up off this support and run again, and when it does we want to be ready to buy in when it does.
Volume: 8.83M Avg Volume: 8.703M
BUY POINT: $91.45 Volume=10M Target=$109.75 Stop=$87.31
POSITION: ZQN AR - Jan. $90c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amzn.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
CHU (China Unicom--$22.35; +1.22; optionable): China wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-26-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Taking another run at CHU as it gaps higher out of a 4 week lateral range over 20. CHU surged higher to end September, jumping out of a 12 week base. The lateral range consolidated that breakout move and now it looks as if CHU is ready to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 2.295M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $22.49 Volume=1.6M Target=$26.98 Stop=$21.11
POSITION: CHU AX - Jan. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chu.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
FTK (Flotek Industries--$49.93; +1.88; optionable): Pumps, etc. for various industries and home gamers as well
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ftk.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FTK has enjoyed quite a run and it made us some money as it did. The past three weeks it has paused, working laterally above near support at the 18 day EMA and the 45 level. Outside of a big reach lower Monday down to the 50 day EMA, it has held that support. Friday volume was up as FTK broke higher once more, trying to clear this consolidation. Looking to move in as FTK breaks past the consolidation and starts the next leg in its uptrend.
Volume: 927.3K Avg Volume: 443.506K
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=665K Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: FTK CJ - Mar. $50c (52 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ftk.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
MR (Mindray Medical Intl.--$38.61; +0.51; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mr.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A new issue in September 2006, MR has made us money before, and it is set up to do so again. It just came off of a strong May to September run that peaked near 45 to start October. It has since dropped back to the 50 day EMA (38.37) this month, making a rather typical periodic test of this key level after a strong move up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It has settled in at the 50 day on some lower volume last week as the trading range narrowed. Looking for a surge back up through the 18 day EMA (39.64) on some rising, above average volume to show us it is ready to move higher again and cue our buy.
Volume: 552.4K Avg Volume: 875K
BUY POINT: $39.75 Volume=1.2M Target=$47.75 Stop=$37.97
POSITION: MR AG - Jan. $35c (68 delta) or MR AH - Jan $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mr.html
Play Date: 10/27/2007
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$35.50; +2.01; optionable): Steel & Iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Why not another steel company? We can see which one makes the best move and buy in or we can buy them both. RIO announced earnings after the Thursday close and gapped higher Friday, moving toward the breakout from its 4 week lateral range it has used to consolidate the strong August through September run after breaking out from an 8 week base. Volume moved up just above average Friday as it made the move, and we want to see continued stronger trade as RIO makes the break out of this consolidation range.
Volume: 24.651M Avg Volume: 29.676M
BUY POINT: $36.12 Volume=34M Target=$43.95 Stop=$33.89
POSITION: RIO AG - Jan. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rio.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, EDU, GME, GOOG, MA, PCLN, NVDA, VLO
AAPL: continues to hold its gains after gapping up Tuesday.
CELG: Rough week, gapping lower on earnings, managing to hold the 90 day SMA on the close and bounce some Friday. Still in the tank and seeing just how far it can rebound.
GME: Still working laterally in its 5 week plateau. May take a few more days to finish setting up.
MA: Solid volume last week as MA bounced off the 50 day SMA Wednesday and really made some moves Thursday and Friday. An example of the financials coming back to life.
NVDA: Under a lot of pressure Thursday and Friday on a downgrade, but holding some support at 34. Not really promising here but will see how the 50 day EMA test plays out.
VLO: Has reached the early October highs as VLO tries to make the break from a 15 week ascending base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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