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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
Added QMAR.
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/31/2007
ABAX (Abaxis--$29.32; +1.15; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abax.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ABAX blasted higher on its earnings report, clearing the handle in its 7 month cup with handle base. Very nicely formed pattern that set up ABAX for the break to a new all-time high on this move. It spend the past four days fading back to test, then bouncing Wednesday. No real volume Wednesday, but looking for more trade as ABAX continues higher after this breakout test. It may come back more to test as the 10 day EMA is down at 27.38, a point coincident roughly with the April high, the left side of the base. Either way we will look for a strong volume push higher to move in and get in on this stock that sports a great technical pattern to go along with very solid fundamentals growth rates.
Volume: 224.577K Avg Volume: 271.644K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=365K Target=$35.55 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: QOX AE - Jan. $25c (80 delta) or QOK BF - Feb. $20c (45 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abax.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
BTU (Peabody Energy--$55.75; +0.01; optionable): Worldwide coal mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Super breakout last week as volume surged and BTU cleared the handle in its 20 week cup with handle base. The breakout cleared the May high, a long term resistance point, and this test is setting that as solid support. Really like the low, low volume on the Monday and Tuesday pullback to test and then the strong volume as BTU tapped at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounded. Excellent set up for the move higher.
Volume: 5.928M Avg Volume: 4.763M
BUY POINT: $56.36 Volume=6.5M Target=$66.95 Stop=$54.55
POSITION: BTU CK - Mar. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/btu.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
JOYG (Joy Global--$58.06; +1.35; optionable): Farm and construction equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 12.18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. JOYG broke sharply higher last week, clearing a three week handle to its 15 week cup with handle base. Strong volume as it broke higher through Monday and then a fade in trade as it tested on Tuesday. Volume was back up, however, Wednesday as JOYG started back up. That is solid price/volume action, just what you want to see as a stock sets up and makes its move. Has some nice room overhead to run before it hits resistance, and we are looking to play the rest of this move as far as it will take us.
Volume: 1.824M Avg Volume: 1.84M
BUY POINT: $58.31 Volume=2.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.97
POSITION: JQY AK - Jan. $55c (65 delta) or JQY DL - Apr. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/joyg.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
NM (Navios Maritime Holdings--$18.07; +1.76; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nm.html
EARNINGS: Early December
STATUS: Breakout test. NM made us some solid money on its run after breaking out from its nice 12 week cup base. It got caught up in the selling on Tuesday in the shipping sector, and we exited, but did so looking for another entry point. It gapped higher Wednesday, tested the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded for a nice gain. Looking to pick it up as it continues higher and runs toward a new high once more.
Volume: 3.861M Avg Volume: 1.53M
BUY POINT: $18.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.94
POSITION: NM CW - Mar. $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nm.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$35.34; +0.54; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Island reversal. Gapped higher last Friday on a strong earnings report, clearing the early October high on that move. It gapped lower in late July, spent 12 weeks working laterally in a trading range, and then made the gap higher. That is a bullish pattern, and we are looking to move in as NTGR continues the move higher, showing us some rising volume as it does.
Volume: 577.242K Avg Volume: 781.355K
BUY POINT: $35.66 Volume=1M Target=$41.32 Stop=$33.69
POSITION: TUD CG - Mar. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
QMAR (Quintana Maritime--$27.95; +1.02; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qmar.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice lateral move the past two weeks as the 10 day EMA (27.14) rose to catch up with the break higher. Exploded out of a 10 week cup with handle base to start October, rallying to mid-October. There it stalled and started this lateral move. Looks ready to continue the break higher and continue the breakout move. Strong earnings to go with the pattern.
Volume: 1.005M Avg Volume: 815.026K
BUY POINT: $28.28 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.54
POSITION: CQU CE - Mar. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qmar.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$66.38; +1.90; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. XTO has formed a short little reverse head and shoulders pattern the past three weeks, a pattern we are seeing in many stocks (e.g. CTRP; it just broke out from its short little pattern this week). It has formed as a test of the breakout three weeks back from a larger 15 week reverse head and shoulders base. Volume surged Wednesday, moving back above average as XTO bounced off the 18 day EMA, moving up to the recent highs and looking for yet another all-time high as it makes the break. Looks very good to continue higher.
Volume: 3.926M Avg Volume: 3.868M
BUY POINT: $66.84 Volume=4.5M Target=$76.95 Stop=$64.12
POSITION: XTO BM - Feb. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 10/31/2007
SGR (Shaw Group--$74.60; +1.62; optionable): Power plant construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-10-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SGR is making the second test of its early October breakout from a very nicely formed 12 week cup with handle base. Nice volume on the two surges higher, and Wednesday SGR tested the 10 day EMA (71.98) on the intraday low and rebounded for a solid gain on a second session of above average volume. Very strong with rising money flow and solid fundamentals underpinning the stock. Looking for a continued break higher on solid trade to move in and take some more positions on this great stock.
Volume: 1.495M Avg Volume: 1.202M
BUY POINT: $75.11 Volume=1.7M Target=$85.89 Stop=$71.78
POSITION: SGR AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/24/2007
CRNT (Ceragon Networks--$18.21; -0.25; optionable): Point to point wireless backhaul solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the test, reaching lower below the 18 day EMA Wednesday, then rebounding to close at the 10 day EMA. Very low volume as it tests, just what you want to see in a handle. Looks good, just waiting for the break higher on rising volume. To recap: Forming a short handle to its short 4 week base formed using the 50 day EMA as support on the lows. Came to life in May after a long, long dormancy. Great run and it needed a breather to set back up for a new run. Strong volume Monday as it announced some excellent earnings. Spent Tuesday and Wednesday testing; may take another session or two to complete the handle. We just need to be ready to move in as it shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 685.552K Avg Volume: 1.574M
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$23.48 Stop=$18.18
POSITION: QMC CW - Mar. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crnt.html
Play Date: 10/29/2007
MYGN (Myriad Genetics--$55.36; +1.45; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mygn.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07 before the open.
STATUS: Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close with a solid gain on rising but below average volume. Earnings are out ahead of the open and we are looking to see some good results that still gives us an entry point. That basically means a test of the early move if the results are solid. To recap: A strong break higher and run in August through the first week of October needed a deeper test. This move back to the 50 day EMA the past three weeks has given it the breather it needed to resume the run higher. It is riskier playing it into earnings, but we can get a good 5 points out of it and take the gain if it gives us that.
Volume: 497.823K Avg Volume: 709.247K
BUY POINT: $55.54 Volume=900K Target=$65.55 Stop=$52.88
POSITION: GSQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mygn.html
Play Date: 10/29/2007
TDG (TransDigm Group--$45.52; +0.29; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tdg.html
EARNINGS: Second week November
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice action, testing the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding for a gain. Low trade as it made the test, part of a nice 2-day pullback after a strong blast higher Monday. This sets the next move and looking for some more volume as TDG breaks higher to give us the entry point. To recap: TDG is a top rates stock in terms of earnings growth rates and it has a great pattern to go with it. It broke higher in late September from an 11 week reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to 47 in late September and has since come back to test, falling to the 50 day EMA (43.11), holding there last week. Monday it was back in the game, rallying nicely on stronger, above average volume. Nice test and ready to move in as TDG continues its breakout move.
Volume: 88.7K Avg Volume: 230.842K
BUY POINT: $46.25 Volume=250K Target=$55.45 Stop=$43.88
POSITION: TDG BI - Feb. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tdg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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