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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Leader plays: No split histories but leaders ready to move.
Play Date: 11/01/2007
BBBB (Blackboard--$47.83; -2.07; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbbb.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07 after the close
STATUS: Breakout test. We may have been early closing it out, but with earnings after hours we decided not to see how it came out. It reported in line on EPS, beat on revenues, and guided in line. It was very quiet after hours with some higher trades but closed the after hours session flat. That is not bad as it can give us a good flat start to build on. Nice test of the break higher earlier this week from a short 4 week cup that was a consolidation of the late September move from a larger 11 week base. Nice base on base action that sets up the run higher. Hopefully it will start flattish then start to rally.
Volume: 402.034K Avg Volume: 396.997K
BUY POINT: $48.11 Volume=450K Target=$55.75 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: BPU AI - Jan. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbbb.html
Play Date: 11/01/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$44.26; -2.39; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 11-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Been waiting for CMED to come back to us to give us a new buy point so it can make us a lot of money once more. It blasted higher last week, moving out of a short double bottom base that formed after the mid-September breakout from a nicely formed 8 week double bottom with handle. Nice pullback on low, below average volume Tuesday through Thursday, holding the 10 day EMA (43.96) on the close. Nice low volume shows no selling. Looking for it to hold at this level and resume the breakout move. That is when we move in.
Volume: 592.953K Avg Volume: 758.279K
BUY POINT: $44.69 Volume=1M Target=$52.65 Stop=$43.57
POSITION: QCY AH - Jan. $40c (70 delta) or QCY CI - Mar. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmed.html
Play Date: 11/01/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$240.21; -7.71; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: December
STATUS: Breakout test. GS is the only strong stock in its sector. It formed a 19 week cup with handle and broke higher last week, moving to 250 on the Wednesday high. It gapped lower with all of the C and financial worries. It held the early October peak on the low on lower though still above average volume. Looking for it to hold in this range, maybe slipping to the 10 day EMA (236) before continuing the breakout move. Either way we want to be ready to move in when it starts higher, continuing the breakout move.
Volume: 12.58M Avg Volume: 13.174M
BUY POINT: From the Thursday close: $241.22. Test 236: $237.32 on the break higher. Volume=14M Target=$264.95 Stop=$235.72
POSITION: GPY AH - Jan. $240c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gs.html
Play Date: 11/01/2007
NYX (NYSE Euronext--$90.91; -2.70; optionable): NYSE stock market
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-07 before the open
STATUS: Test breakout. A strong move for us last week and on into Wednesday, then a test started ahead of earnings, coming back to tap at the 10 day EMA (90.14) on the low. Volume remained steady and average as it did. Earnings are out before the open and we will see if NYX can give us an entry point without too much of a gap higher if they are solid.
Volume: 5.631M Avg Volume: 5.426M
BUY POINT: $91.32 Volume=7M Target=$99.95 Stop=$89.77
POSITION: NYX AR - Jan. $90c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyx.html
Play Date: 11/01/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$91.65; -1.45; optionable): Hotel, car, travel online discounts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PCLN last tested the 50 day EMA (86.29) in early August after a nice run up the 18 day EMA. It gapped higher off that level and put in another 35 point run up the 18 day EMA (now at 90.11). Over the past three weeks it faded to test the 50 day, coming back to that level two weeks back and putting in a short double bottom at that level. It bounced sharply on rising volume Monday and continued higher through Wednesday. Thursday it was up again but the market selling got it and pulled it back. Held the 10 day EMA on the low (90.45) and bounced off that level. Looking to move in as PCLN continues the move higher off this test of key support.
Volume: 1.757M Avg Volume: 1.198M
BUY POINT: $92.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$99.95 Stop=$90.11
POSITION: PUZ AR - Jan. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcln.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Jobs again made no announcement but AAPL continues to perform.
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
ATK: Tentative 11-1-07. No split announcement but a great move higher on its earnings.
ATW: Likely to announce in January.
BHP: Looking to the first week of November. Nothing thus far and indeed the action was worrying us.
BIDU: No split to end October, but moving higher.
BUCY: Early November.
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07. Crushed earnings and rallied nicely but then got sold off late with most stocks. No announcement.
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
GPRO: No announcement on Wednesday as it faded back to the 18 day EMA on the close.
HRS: 11-1-07. Up sharply after hours on its earnings but thus far no word of a split.
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
JOYG: Researching date
MM: Forecast early November. Not doing it.
OII: Forecast 10-31-07. No announcement but trying to get up off the 50 day EMA.
PCP: Researching date
PCU: No split last week but just letting PCU continue the move for us.
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07. No split but a great move.
SRDX: Researching date. Turned over on volume Thursday.
STLD: Researching date
SU: Researching date.
TIF: Last week of November
UA: Forecast 10-30-07. Could not hold the solid moves early in the week.
XTO: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 11/01/2007
SU (Suncor Energy--$106.15; -3.08; optionable): Canadian tar sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SU surged higher in mid-October, clearing resistance in a 12 week base. It has moved steadily up the 10 day EMA (105.36), bursting higher Wednesday on strong volume then fading back on very low, below average volume Thursday. Looking for this test to complete and give us another good entry point.
Volume: 2.146M Avg Volume: 2.61M
BUY POINT: $106.58 Volume=3M Target=$121.95 Stop=$104.91
POSITION: SU CB - Mar. $110c (48 delta) or SU A A - Jan. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/31/2007
JOYG (Joy Global--$56.00; -2.06; optionable): Farm and construction equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 12.18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Testing back a bit further, forming a second handle to its base. Moved the buy point lower to accommodate this drop to near support that shakes out and sets up the breakout. Good action. To recap: JOYG broke sharply higher last week, clearing a three week handle to its 15 week cup with handle base. Strong volume as it broke higher through Monday and then a fade in trade as it tested on Tuesday. Volume was back up, however, Wednesday as JOYG started back up. That is solid price/volume action, just what you want to see as a stock sets up and makes its move. Has some nice room overhead to run before it hits resistance, and we are looking to play the rest of this move as far as it will take us.
Volume: 1.547M Avg Volume: 1.816M
BUY POINT: $56.65 Volume=2.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.32
POSITION: JQY AK - Jan. $55c (65 delta) or JQY DL - Apr. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/joyg.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$65.68; -0.70; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Jumped higher on solid volume Thursday then was sold back late as everything got the heave ho. Still in solid shape to break higher. To recap: XTO has formed a short little reverse head and shoulders pattern the past three weeks, a pattern we are seeing in many stocks (e.g. CTRP; it just broke out from its short little pattern this week). It has formed as a test of the breakout three weeks back from a larger 15 week reverse head and shoulders base. Volume surged Wednesday, moving back above average as XTO bounced off the 18 day EMA, moving up to the recent highs and looking for yet another all-time high as it makes the break. Looks very good to continue higher.
Volume: 3.944M Avg Volume: 3.848M
BUY POINT: $66.84 Volume=4.5M Target=$76.95 Stop=$64.12
POSITION: XTO BM - Feb. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/31/2007
SGR (Shaw Group--$73.56; -1.04; optionable): Power plant construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-10-07
STATUS: Test breakout. A second doji at the 10 day EMA on the low, this second one a bit tighter. Tapping at that support intraday and rebounding each session. Nice leader giving us another buy point. To recap: SGR is making the second test of its early October breakout from a very nicely formed 12 week cup with handle base. Nice volume on the two surges higher, and Wednesday SGR tested the 10 day EMA (71.98) on the intraday low and rebounded for a solid gain on a second session of above average volume. Very strong with rising money flow and solid fundamentals underpinning the stock. Looking for a continued break higher on solid trade to move in and take some more positions on this great stock.
Volume: 1.298M Avg Volume: 1.203M
BUY POINT: $75.11 Volume=1.7M Target=$85.89 Stop=$71.78
POSITION: SGR AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sgr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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