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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: A lot of strong stocks in position to make moves back up after last week's test.
New post-splits:
Play Date: 11/03/2007
NOV (National Oilwell--$73.99; +3.64; optionable): Oil and gas equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. NOV is a powerhouse with an impressive run from February to mid-October. It made us some great money on its last run and it is in the process of setting up for another great move. It is a case study of a strong stock's lifecycle. It broke out in February and rallied up the 18 day EMA until August. After that move it needed a breather and it came back to the 50 day EMA to test for three weeks, forming a short double bottom. Then it was on the rally again, moving up the 10 and 18 day EMA through mid-October, then coming back to make its test of key support at the 50 day EMA (70.08) once again. It looks like it just came off its second bottom on this double bottom test of support, and if it continues higher from here on rising volume we will be looking to move into NOV and ride it up the 10 and 18 day EMA once again for another 15 to 20 points.
Volume: 5.522M Avg Volume: 6.05M
BUY POINT: $74.35 Volume=7.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$70.89
POSITION: NOV BO - Feb. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nov.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$32.34; +1.24; optionable): Diagnostic test kits for gastro, viral, parasitic infectious diseases
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
EARNINGS: 11-14-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Big surge August to early October, then this short, steep 3 week test that formed using the 50 day EMA (29.35) as support on the October low. Bounced off that key support level on strong volume and then tested back to the 18 day EMA (31.10) to end last week. It held that level Friday and bounced nicely though volume was lagging. Looking for another good surge higher on strong volume. That action off of this higher low would show us the bigger buyers are back in and that we can move into the play.
Volume: 319.464K Avg Volume: 361.205K
BUY POINT: $33.21 Volume=500K Target=$39.95 Stop=$30.91
POSITION: ZUG DF - Apr. $30c (67 delta, 115 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
New Leader plays: No split histories but leaders ready to move.
Play Date: 11/03/2007
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$39.46; +0.04; optionable): Online games in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Ascending base. Looking at one that has made us great coin in the past. SNDA is part of the China cadre that is moving well and looks ready to move some more. SNDA has moved through a 6 week base up the 18 day EMA (38.28) and closed the week bumping up against the resistance in the pattern. Has shown good upside volume on the bounces higher. Looking for that volume to surge as it makes the breakout move. That gives us the buy point.
Volume: 1.597M Avg Volume: 1.673M
BUY POINT: $40.76 Volume=2.4M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.11
POSITION: QKU CH - Mar. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snda.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
STP (Suntech Power Holdings--$57.00; +0.28; optionable): Photovoltaic cells and modules . . . in China.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stp.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Explosive move in October as STP blasted out of a 13 week reverse head and shoulders base mid-month. Huge surge on the breakout and last week during the selling, it calmly, on lower volume, came back to test the 10 day EMA (54.65) on the low, tapping it intraday Friday and then rebounding for a modest gain on some rising volume. May try to come back a bit more to test near support at the 10 day, but it has a lot of momentum, and we are ready to move in as it continues this rebound off of this near support.
Volume: 3.618M Avg Volume: 3.172M
BUY POINT: $58.18 Volume=4M Target=$69.95 Stop=$54.45
POSITION: STP AK - Jan. $55c (61 delta) or STP CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stp.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$72.27; +2.76; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits used in solar power among other applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Blasted higher last week on a strong earnings report, gapping out of a 6 month flat or saucer base, rallying to 76 on that move. Nice, orderly base. It used last week's selling to test the move, coming back to tap at the 10 day EMA (68.82). Friday it bounced off of that test and posted a nice gain. Looking to move in as WFR continues the breakout move.
Volume: 5.527M Avg Volume: 4.463M
BUY POINT: $72.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$86.95 Stop=$69.22
POSITION: WFR DO - Apr. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Jobs again made no announcement but AAPL continues to perform.
ACH: Tentatively set for mid-November
ATK: No split announcement but still surging higher on its earnings.
ATW: Likely to announce in January.
BHP: Nothing the first couple of days of November but still in the red zone for next week. Held the 18 day EMA on the Friday close and will look to see if it gives us an entry point this week.
BIDU: No split to end October, but screaming upside.
BUCY: Early November. Tough week, all over the map.
CNQ: No split announcement last week but in position to move higher after a volatile, but upside week.
DVN: Forecast 11-7-07
GPRO: No announcement on Wednesday as it faded back to the 18 day EMA on the close.
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
JOYG: Researching date. Likely around earnings in mid-December
PCP: Researching date
PCU: No split last week and the action got just a bit dicey.
RIG: Forecast 10-31-07. No split but a great move that is still underway.
SRDX: Researching date. Turned over on volume Thursday, but bounced off the 18 day EMA Friday. Will see if it sets up a new buy point.
STLD: Researching date
SU: Researching date.
XTO: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/03/2007
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$311.80; -10.22; optionable): Surgical devices and parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ISRG surged higher in mid-October as it made the first test of the early October breakout from a 9 week ascending base. It rallied to 340 on that move and then spent the past 7 sessions coming back to test, holding the 10 day EMA on the Friday close. One of the stronger stocks in the market, we are looking to move in when this test is complete. Want to see it hold near the 10 day EMA on this test and then start back up from there.
Volume: 1.661M Avg Volume: 1.15M
BUY POINT: $312.88 Volume=1.8M Target=$374.00 Stop=$309.22
POSITION: AXV AA - Jan. $310c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/isrg.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
SID (Companhia Siderurgica Nacional--$78.64; +1.66; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sid.html
EARNINGS: Mid-September but no date set yet.
STATUS: Flat. SID is banging up and down the past three weeks, holding above the 18 day EMA (76.89) and bouncing down from 80 on the highs. It broke higher in September and rallied to mid-October then started this move. First real test of that breakout and run, and you have to like how it refuses to give up any of the gains, instead preferring to consolidate in place. Steel has been hot or cold of late. Just have to be patient and then see SID make the break over the top of the range on a return of strong volume. That will tell us that the big money is back in and buying, and thus we can come to the table as well.
Volume: 573.5K Avg Volume: 1.306M
BUY POINT: $80.22 Volume=2M Target=$95.95 Stop=$76.77
POSITION: SID CP - Mar. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sid.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 11/03/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$81.95; -3.78; optionable): Chinese business training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-15-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Looking at a new position in EDU as it tested last week, coming back on the Friday low to tap at the 18 day EMA (78.89) before rebounding to cut its losses. This is the second test of the 18 day EMA since the breakout, and that means EDU still has more upside ahead of it. May test a bit more toward the 18 day, but ready to move in as EDU makes its next break higher on solid trade.
Volume: 873.9K Avg Volume: 438.782K
BUY POINT: $83.05 Volume=658K Target=$99.75 Stop=$78.68
POSITION: EDU AP - Jan. $80c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/edu.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/31/2007
JOYG (Joy Global--$57.18; +1.18; optionable): Farm and construction equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 12.18-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Setting up well, reaching down to the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounding. Now it is ready after this shakeout and looking for the break higher. To recap: JOYG broke sharply higher last week, clearing a three week handle to its 15 week cup with handle base. Strong volume as it broke higher through Monday and then a fade in trade as it tested on Tuesday. Volume was back up, however, Wednesday as JOYG started back up. That is solid price/volume action, just what you want to see as a stock sets up and makes its move. Has some nice room overhead to run before it hits resistance, and we are looking to play the rest of this move as far as it will take us.
Volume: 3.132M Avg Volume: 1.819M
BUY POINT: $56.95 Volume=2.2M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.32
POSITION: JQY AK - Jan. $55c (65 delta) or JQY DL - Apr. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/joyg.html
Play Date: 10/23/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$150.00; +1.94; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10 -23-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working laterally the past week in a very tight range below 150 and above the 18 day EMA (147.43). Very nice action in the short 6 week base that formed immediately after the break from an 8 week pattern in September. Just going to let it show us a break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 1.022M Avg Volume: 1.446M
BUY POINT: $147.78 Volume=1.6M Target=$169.95 Stop=$144.69
POSITION: PCP CJ - Mar. $150c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/01/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$90.81; -0.84; optionable): Hotel, car, travel online discounts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Faded to close at the 10 day EMA on Friday as PCLN tried to put in a higher low and continue the move off the 50 day EMA it tested the third week of October. Still set up well. To recap: PCLN last tested the 50 day EMA (86.29) in early August after a nice run up the 18 day EMA. It gapped higher off that level and put in another 35 point run up the 18 day EMA. Over the past three weeks it faded to test the 50 day, coming back to that level two weeks back and putting in a short double bottom at that level. It bounced sharply on rising volume Monday and continued higher through Wednesday. Thursday it was up again but the market selling got it and pulled it back. Held the 10 day EMA on the low (90.45) and bounced off that level. Looking to move in as PCLN continues the move higher off this test of key support.
Volume: 916.777K Avg Volume: 1.198M
BUY POINT: $92.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$99.95 Stop=$90.11
POSITION: PUZ AR - Jan. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcln.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
SGR (Shaw Group--$74.01; +0.45; optionable): Power plant construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-10-07
STATUS: Test breakout. The test continued Friday with a reach down to the 18 day EMA on the low (70.13) and then rebounding for a modest gain on a surge in volume. That tells us the buyers moved in on the test and drove it back up. Looking for a continued move higher from here to enter. To recap: SGR is making the second test of its early October breakout from a very nicely formed 12 week cup with handle base. Nice volume on the two surges higher, and Wednesday SGR tested the 10 day EMA on the intraday low and rebounded for a solid gain on a second session of above average volume. Very strong with rising money flow and solid fundamentals underpinning the stock. Looking for a continued break higher on solid trade to move in and take some more positions on this great stock.
Volume: 1.883M Avg Volume: 1.192M
BUY POINT: $75.11 Volume=1.7M Target=$85.89 Stop=$71.78
POSITION: SGR AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sgr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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