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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2007
AOB (American Oriental Bioengineering--$13.58; +0.30; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aob.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-07 after the close
STATUS: Test breakout. AOB broke higher last week on strong volume, moving out of a 10 month double bottom with handle base. It tested to start this month then bounced Monday ahead of earnings, moving up on stronger, above average volume. After hours, moving back up toward the new high it just hit last week. After hours it reported earnings, and though it was down at first, it rebounded as the after hours session went on. Looking to get a good entry point on AOB tomorrow as it moves up, continuing the breakout move.
Volume: 2.436M Avg Volume: 1.628M
BUY POINT: $13.88 Volume=1.8M Target=$16.88 Stop=$12.91
POSITION: AOB DV - Apr. $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aob.html
Play Date: 11/05/2007
CF (CF Industries--$87.83; -1.71; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-29-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. This is CF's second test of the September breakout from its 9 week cup with handle base. Nice run up the 18 day EMA (82.32) and it came back to test that on Friday then bounced on strong volume. Monday was no day to run, and it faded back some on lower volume. Ready to move in as it continues higher on rising trade. Nice strong leader unwilling to give back its gain. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price, and CF is set up to follow it. Very strong player in its sector.
Volume: 1.855M Avg Volume: 1.844M
BUY POINT: $88.26 Volume=2.2M Target=$99.95 Stop=$85.05
POSITION: CF BR - Feb. $90c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cf.html
Play Date: 11/05/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$174.79; +0.16; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ICE broke higher the third week of October, moving out of a 15 week reverse head and shoulders base. It has struggled higher since, trending up the 10 day EMA (171.61), but unable to make the clean break. It has not given up its breakout, however, and you have to like how it is hanging in there, gapping lower Monday but recovering to post a modest gain. Looking to move in as ICE resumes its break higher with some solid volume.
Volume: 1.653M Avg Volume: 2.319M
BUY POINT: $175.65 Volume=2.5M Target=$199.95 Stop=$169.72
POSITION: IHH AO - Jan. $175c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 11/05/2007
SCSC (Scansource--$35.46; +1.46; optionable): Specialty technology products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong break higher on the earnings results, gapping out of a 17 week double bottom with handle base. It has come back to test the move, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Monday low. Has not filled the gap but was moving up after it opened lower, and it may be some time before it does fill it. In other words, if it is moving higher on volume from here we won't wait for the fill as SCSC moves toward a bigger breakout from a 3 year base to a new all-time high.
Volume: 242.637K Avg Volume: 255.298K
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=375K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: UHI CG - Mar. $35c (55 delt, 66 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scsc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/31/2007
ABAX (Abaxis--$29.30; -0.20; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abax.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume as ABAX tested modestly Monday and then rebounded to close flat. Still a very nice test, refusing to give up the gains. To recap: ABAX blasted higher on its earnings report, clearing the handle in its 7 month cup with handle base. Very nicely formed pattern that set up ABAX for the break to a new all-time high on this move. It spend the past four days fading back to test, then bouncing Wednesday. No real volume Wednesday, but looking for more trade as ABAX continues higher after this breakout test. It may come back more to test as the 10 day EMA is down at 27.38, a point coincident roughly with the April high, the left side of the base. Either way we will look for a strong volume push higher to move in and get in on this stock that sports a great technical pattern to go along with very solid fundamentals growth rates.
Volume: 156.419K Avg Volume: 273.448K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=365K Target=$35.55 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: QOX AE - Jan. $25c (80 delta) or QOK BF - Feb. $20c (45 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abax.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
NOV (National Oilwell--$73.21; -0.78; optionable): Oil and gas equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume faded well below average as NOV tested lower, held easily above the 50 day EMA and then rebounded to hold the 18 day EMA on the close. Excellent action as NOV sets up to move higher and following the rising money flow. To recap: NOV is a powerhouse with an impressive run from February to mid-October. It made us some great money on its last run and it is in the process of setting up for another great move. It is a case study of a strong stock's lifecycle. It broke out in February and rallied up the 18 day EMA until August. After that move it needed a breather and it came back to the 50 day EMA to test for three weeks, forming a short double bottom. Then it was on the rally again, moving up the 10 and 18 day EMA through mid-October, then coming back to make its test of key support at the 50 day EMA (70.08) once again. It looks like it just came off its second bottom on this double bottom test of support, and if it continues higher from here on rising volume we will be looking to move into NOV and ride it up the 10 and 18 day EMA once again for another 15 to 20 points.
Volume: 2.346M Avg Volume: 6.05M
BUY POINT: $74.35 Volume=7.5M Target=$88.95 Stop=$70.89
POSITION: NOV BO - Feb. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nov.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
PAY (VeriFone Holdings--$46.78; -1.20; optionable): Transaction automation systems for electronic payments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pay.html
EARNINGS: 12-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Sold down to the 18 day EMA on Monday on rising, average trade, but held nicely above that level on the close. Held the October highs on the low for the day and bounced; good action. Looks very solid for the move higher. To recap: PAY formed a nice 7 month cup with handle and broke higher in late September. It has rallied nicely and is making its second test of that breakout move, using last week's late selling to come back and test the 10 day EMA (47.63) on lower, below average volume. That shows no real selling, just some happy feet moving out. Looking for PAY to hold this near support and start higher on rising trade, and that is our buy signal.
Volume: 1.174M Avg Volume: 1.521M
BUY POINT: $48.48 Volume=1.6M Target=$55.95 Stop=$47.28
POSITION: PAY DI - Apr. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pay.html
Play Date: 10/31/2007
SGR (Shaw Group--$74.10; +0.09; optionable): Power plant construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-10-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Despite the market selling SGR held the line very well, gapping lower then rebounding to close flat on lower, below average volume. Excellent lateral consolidation, just biding its time until the selling pressure in the market lets up some. To recap: SGR is making the second test of its early October breakout from a very nicely formed 12 week cup with handle base. Nice volume on the two surges higher, and Wednesday SGR tested the 10 day EMA on the intraday low and rebounded for a solid gain on a second session of above average volume. Very strong with rising money flow and solid fundamentals underpinning the stock. Looking for a continued break higher on solid trade to move in and take some more positions on this great stock.
Volume: 612.295K Avg Volume: 1.192M
BUY POINT: $75.11 Volume=1.7M Target=$85.89 Stop=$71.78
POSITION: SGR AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgr.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
STP (Suntech Power Holdings--$56.80; -0.20; optionable): Online games in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Ascending base. Another nice shakeout session for STP as it tested the 10 day EMA on the low (54.68) and rebounded to close flat on lower, below average volume. No selling, just another nice test and rebound. Looks ready to move as SPWR was up sharply after hours and STP and company were riding its coattails. Very solid. To recap: Looking at one that has made us great coin in the past. SNDA is part of the China cadre that is moving well and looks ready to move some more. SNDA has moved through a 6 week base up the 18 day EMA and closed the week bumping up against the resistance in the pattern. Has shown good upside volume on the bounces higher. Looking for that volume to surge as it makes the breakout move. That gives us the buy point.
Volume: 1.347M Avg Volume: 3.172M
BUY POINT: $58.18 Volume=4M Target=$69.95 Stop=$54.45
POSITION: STP AK - Jan. $55c (61 delta) or STP CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stp.html
Play Date: 11/03/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$70.60; -1.67; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits used in solar power among other applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Faded back Monday but on very low volume as it continues working laterally after that strong break higher. May take a couple of sessions to complete the lateral test, but want to be ready to enter as WFR breaks higher. To recap: Blasted higher last week on a strong earnings report, gapping out of a 6 month flat or saucer base, rallying to 76 on that move. Nice, orderly base. It used last week's selling to test the move, coming back to tap at the 10 day EMA (68.82). Friday it bounced off of that test and posted a nice gain. Looking to move in as WFR continues the breakout move.
Volume: 2.395M Avg Volume: 4.463M
BUY POINT: $72.88 Volume=6.2M Target=$86.95 Stop=$69.22
POSITION: WFR DO - Apr. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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