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world stock market, us stock market
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11/10/07 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: A; PCLN
Buy alerts: TKC
Trailing stops: SLT; TISI
Stop alerts issued: EJ; MR; RIO; VIVO
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SUMMARY:
- Financials provide the relief bounce, but no one else plays along.
- Import prices surge on oil and a weak dollar, but trade deficit tanks on high exports and a weak dollar: what is better?
- Looks as if a statement of intervention is coming from the Treasury this week.
- Big sell off, expiration week coming, huge volatility premium in put options; recipe for a solid relief bounce.
Market starts to bounce on some short covering but even that cannot hold up.
The divergence between the haves and the have not's, i.e. technology and the stocks connected to the world economic boom versus consumer related and financial stocks, took another step towards resolving itself last week, and as is often the case and as we feared, the resolution involved the breakdown of a leading sector, namely large cap tech that had led the move higher. Those stocks were up big as they carried the entire market higher, and when they needed a rest there was too much weakness in other areas to pick up the slack, and with the worrisome economic issues all stocks became targets. The large cap techs were easy targets given their gains, and they were hammered lower. Their decline was the final blow to the market and the selling the last half of the week did serious damage to the market.
Friday was lower from the wee hours of the morning, unable to make anything of the Thursday afternoon rebound. Techs may have made out better but for QCOM warning of weaker times ahead. There were more retail downgrades, but that was nothing new; retail is so down it is already trying to boost holiday sales with 'special invitation' sales and the like (how many have you received thus far?).
There were some real kickers, however. The EU said its growth would slow in 2008 to 2.4% from 2.9%. Those tightenings by the ECB are choking off an expansion before it gets really moving. That is a recurring theme over the past 100 years in Europe. They fear inflation so much (or more accurately don't understand its relationship to economic growth) that they have decided to live with subpar economic performance to avoid it. That is like driving in 100 degree weather with the windows down and the A/C off because you think it saves gasoline, but try telling that to the French. And frankly, falling from 2.9% to 2.4%, while not good, is hardly earth shaking. It is not as if the EU was enjoying 4% GDP growth as say, the US. No matter. With the current mindset, any negative of any degree is considered forecasting major trouble.
What else? The dollar was weaker . . . again. Import prices jumped thanks to oil prices jumping . . . and again, the weaker dollar driving those oil prices along with world demand. On the other hand, the trade gap fell thanks to . . . the weaker dollar. More on that later.
The market of course opened lower with large cap techs again taking the beating as GOOG, AAPL, BIDU, and RIMM took on more water. The open was just about the extent of the damage as the indices bounced up, then down, then back up in the first 3 hours. They made a higher low as the afternoon session got underway and then broke higher with a couple of hours left, clearing the morning highs. Nice solid recovery led by the financials. They have been so roughed up they were due a relief move and they took it. SP500 moved to flat 10 minutes into the last hour of trade. SOX was already positive. Then the switch was thrown. Sellers moved in and burned the entire rally to the ground, closing the indices at the morning lows in a 40 minute, straight line decline. Pretty bad action.
Technically it was another bad day at the market for the upside. The Thursday late rebound was looking really good with the same action on Friday; a pair of dojis with long tails by SP500 and DJ30 would be good technical action. Of course the afternoon selling took care of that and the intraday action turned from not bad to crappy in 30 minutes.
Internals: Once more a downside move showed stronger internals than an upside session. Breadth was -2.7:1 NYSE, -2:1 NASDAQ. Volume did back off, but it was still huge. Not as strong as the Thursday short covering rebound, but NYSE volume was till stronger than anything in the past month other than that Thursday volume. Once more the internals were skewed toward the downside though again, they were nowhere nearly as bad as say on Wednesday when the dam broke and the market showed late 2002-like levels of breadth and down to up volume.
Charts. NASDAQ has still not found a bottom after its break lower. It is approaching some support at the June peaks after gapping below the 90 day SMA to start the day. It has more to go before it finds any serious footing but if the market bounces it will be game for a rebound as it has dropped 7.3% in three days, something it has not done since the death plunge in the fall of 2002 when it was bottoming. It is 8.3% off its peak. As for SP500, it is trying to put in an interim bounce using 1450ish as some support after declining 8.1% from its recent high. DJ30 is at a point where it can try the same, but it looks as if it is going to follow along with whatever SP500 decides. It is off 8.3% from its high. Of all the indices, SP600 looks the readiest to bounce. It is at important support and rebounded twice off the same level Thursday and Friday. It has sold off more than 8% just in the past 7 sessions and is 10.5% off of its October peak.
Leadership: Large cap tech broke its near term trend this week and it is out for now as a leadership group, having more work to do before it can try and assume that mantle again. The market is not without leadership, however. Foreign companies trading on the US exchanges have their overseas roots and the strength of their economies to bolster them. Foreign telecom (TKC, VIP) is an example. Defense is another area and ties to the US are not hurting it. Some metals are still solid, helped by the takeover movement on the week. Energy is strong still though it struggled to end the week. Some big construction names are holding up (SGR), and some burgers are as well (MCD). The list, however, is much thinner when you mark out a lot of stocks with ties mainly to the US. The ranks have been thinning over the past three weeks though it is rather remarkable how many solid stocks are still in solid positions after a pretty good tail kicking for the market.
THE ECONOMY
Tough choices. Higher import prices? Lower trade deficit? Recession?
The Fed's choices are just no fun. It is dealing with 20 years of easy money that started after Paul Volcker's term at the helm of the Fed. It needs some help from the administration to execute a good plan; more on that later.
Friday showed two divergent economic reports, and ironically, and no doubt to the Fed's daily misery, they are divergent for the exact same reason.
Import prices, what we pay for the goods we buy from overseas, rose 1.8% for the month, up from 0.8%. Year over year they surged 9.6%, almost doubling the 5% prior reading. For historical perspective, the last time they were this high was in 1987 when they hit 11.3% just three months before the 1987 market crash. Take out oil and they were a more manageable 3.2%
We love to ex out energy from just about every equation. In some cases it is legitimate to do so. In this case, because of the causes of the rise, or at least some of the causes, it is not such a good idea. Of course energy is rising due to demand around the world. With China, India, Brazil and others building out their countries, more oil is required. Oil is denominated in dollars, however, and as the dollar falls it takes more dollars to make the same profit for the producers. Thus as the dollar falls oil prices rise to cover the decline. I heard one commentator say that if US citizen is not going overseas, then a declining dollar means nothing. Of course no one bothered to call him on the childish perspective of his argument: we buy millions of barrels of oil per day. We are spending more of our dollars on the same amount of oil due to a weaker dollar. That is quite important to most US citizens because we are a commuter nation. Give me a break.
At the same time, the trade deficit fell to $56.5B, the lowest gap in 28 months. That weaker dollar makes US goods, already in demand, even more appealing. With the world economies strong, there is plenty of money to buy those cheaper US goods and that is what others are doing. That booming 2.9% EU growth has to be spent somewhere, eh?
The administration thinks that exports are great. They are. It is great for US companies to be able to reach foreign markets after so much protectionism in other countries has shut the door on us. That is one reason every President since Reagan has worked to improve our trade relations and open doors here and abroad. Clinton was a great free trade proponent.
Clinton was also, however, a strong dollar president. His Treasury secretaries meant it when they said a strong dollar was in the best interest of the US. Despite our rather low opinion of Robert Reuben's economic views, he knew when to step in and goose the currency and the markets, and that helped keep the dollar strong. Bush is a weak dollar president. His father was the same. When Bush's string of Treasury secretaries say a strong dollar is in the interest of the US it is like calling a bald headed fellow curly. It is like a grade schooler making a promise with his fingers crossed. It's like Richard Nixon saying he is not a crook. This administration is tickled pink that exports are higher, and it thinks a lower dollar is the way to do it. It also thinks that it can keep the dollar lower, narrow the trade gap, and most importantly, keep the expansion going even with the US economy slowing overall.
Problem is, the road down economic history is littered with economies that broke trying to devalue their way to prosperity. If a currency is too high as the dollar was back in the 1990's, there is some merit in having it adjust back to a more balanced level. You have to let the market do the work, however. When you start nipping at it to try and tilt it lower, more often than not it gets out of hand in a manner very similar to the Fed when it tinkers with interest rates, trying to fine tune the economy and then pushing it into recession. It happened in the 1980's, again in the early 1990's under Bush 1, and now under Bush II.
Periods of weak dollar levels all have one thing in common: tenuous economic growth after the dollar weakens. Right now growth is solid as the economy is riding a recovery in Q2 and Q3 along with the export surge. As the leading indicators tell us (as we discussed this past week on several occasions), however, the economy is in for a serious slowdown ahead. The irony is, the financial markets know this and thus the dollar weakens even further. Vicious cycle.
That is what makes the Fed's job so hard right now. If it cuts it weakens an already weak dollar that has fallen much faster since the rate cuts started. That exacerbates the importing of inflation (higher oil, etc.) and has a slowing effect on the economy down the road as history shows. If it doesn't cut or slows the intensity as it did, then it runs the risk of a recession as a result of the sub-prime and credit crunch that is not under control yet, and what we are hearing from some in the industry, is as bad as or worse than it was at the 50BP cut in September.
That is why the Fed is pumping in massive amounts of liquidity without cutting rates. It wants to fool the world with its 'no more rate cuts needed' message this week and thus maybe put a floor in the dollar while still liquefying the US economy enough to forestall a recession. Thus far the US financial markets are unconvinced judging from the decline last week. Hopefully it will keep trying, and hopefully it will get some help.
Signs are pointing to some sort of change in US dollar stance.
Bush and his James Baker relics sure like a weaker dollar, but it is getting to the point the US is going to have to do something. Europe is starting to chafe, and China is again threatening to diversify its holdings out of the dollar. If the scrip is followed, South Korea will say something similar to start this week.
Frankly we don't really care what Europe thinks about the price of the dollar, but it is getting to the point where something needs to be done for our economic future, i.e. to avoid recession. As noted last week, Bernanke still likely wants to cut rates to beat history and forestall a recession by acting in time, but the political realities of a weak dollar and a weak dollar administration is hamstringing the Fed. The Fed needs the administration to help out, and we hear that the Fed is talking with Treasury about the need to support the dollar in order to let the Fed continue with liquidity injections to try and prevent the slowdown the market is telling us may already be baked into the cake.
There are some interesting market tidbits that indicate there may be some real substance to this. The Canadian dollar has been on a steady surge versus the greenback because Canada is laden with natural resources. Toward the end of the week the Canadian maple leaf or whatever it is started to wilt against the US dollar. Financials are trying to bounce. True that is likely as much a relief move as anything, there are rarely coincidences.
The most important factor, the US dollar, however, still weakened. It is clear that the sellers speculating on the decline do not believe any rumor or don't expect any of this to result in anything more than the usual and trite "we support a strong US dollar." Nonetheless, this all indicates that some form of dollar defense is coming. It will likely be just a statement, not a concrete action such as buying dollars, but simply something to the effect that the US is not going to simply let the dollar fall rapidly, that it is reaching close to its market parity, or some other indication to the shorts that they are not getting the green light to sell the dollar as they have enjoyed for a year.
That would have a significant impact because without a doubt it would cause a significant number of shorts to start unwinding their positions. That accomplishes a lot of things at once. It starts putting a roof over oil, or at least attaches a ball and chain to its leg. It stops the decline of the dollar near term, and slows the decline after that. It buys the Fed some time to do what it needs to do, though it is probably too late for that though there is perhaps a small crack in the window still. In sum, it tries to get us over a recession threat to allow the country to work on its serious monetary issues.
There is a problem of course, and it relates to those serious monetary issues just mentioned. Over the past 20 years (and not surprisingly coincident with the Greenspan years) the US has engaged in a massive money printing endeavor. There are massive amounts of dollars hanging out in all corners of the world. There were cases and cases of them in Iraq, stored in storage facilities resembling storage sheds we rent here in the US, all part of Hussein's stash of who knows how much booty kept from his subjects, there for that rainy day when he had to make a quick getaway with a few hundred million for walking around cash. It is everywhere. Now if the US was serious about intervening and buying dollars it simply has no way of doing so on a sustained basis because we simply don't have the reserves to cover the dollars. We could sell over bar in Fort Knox and any other place we keep our gold reserves and we still could not put up any sustained intervention that would recover enough of the dollars necessary to do the job in the event of a real collapse. Our money rides on the strength of the faith in our economy, our rule of law, our leadership. We get some cracks in any of those and we have some trouble. If it gets out of hand we cannot cover the dollars outstanding.
Thus there is some trepidation about embarking upon a campaign to bolster the dollar. If it doesn't work, if the bluff is called, then there is real trouble. It is like getting into a gun fight but all you can pull out of your pants is a pocketknife. At the least an embarrassing situation; at most you are dead. Still, if you wait too long to act then the stakes are higher and the changes of failure greater. Right now the US could step in, say it is going to defend the dollar in some way, and that would likely do the trick or at least do enough to take care of the issues currently facing us.
This whole problem the Fed is confronted with right now only underscores the need to get back to a more basic treatment of our currency and just what we need out of a central bank. A central bank that simply prints money every time there is a crisis only puts off the problems to a later date. Would it not be better to have a central bank that did not manipulate the currency but was simply a lender of last resort in times of serous trouble? Looking back at the history of the Fed, it has only brought about trouble. Its first official act was pushing us into the Great Depression. It has caused recessions in 13 of its last 15 rate hiking campaigns. It has printed so many dollars that now there is the threat that they will come back to roost when China, India and other rapidly developing countries realize they are rich themselves. Maybe that is part of the reason Ron Paul is striking a positive chord on the GOP presidential campaign trail. He is saying the emperor has no clothes, and when people read his views they are at least taking an interest in who runs our markets, i.e. the Fed chairman.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 28.5; +2.34. Did not top the Thursday high at 29.15), but a new closing high on this run and topping the early September peak. Hit 37.50 on the August selling peak.
VXN: 32.52; +2.91
VXO: 29.01; +2.16
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.08; -0.16. 5 of 7 days above 1.0. Starting to pile up, but likely still quite a ways to go.
Bulls: 54.5%. Bulls bounced last week, rising from 53.8% the week before and that was a decline back below the 55% threshold. It will likely be down for this week. It is still way too high for this market. Five weeks above 55% and now dipping. After hitting over 55%, just falling back below it is typically insufficient. You have to go through the process of wringing out the bulls with a decline of significance, a.k.a. a move into the lower 40's. That means more selling, but that does not mean right away. The market can still rally on momentum for other reasons and then make the harder drop in the first quarter. The theory is that when too many investors or advisors are bullish then most of the money is in the market and there is nothing ready to come in off the sidelines to drive prices higher. On a steady climb from a low of 40.6%, the low for this round. Never made the thirties. Hit 56.7% in June and now it has blown past that. The market peaked about a month later. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006 near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 22.2%. Fell as well, down from 23.1% and 22.9% the week before. Three weeks back above the 20% threshold between bullish and bearish conditions. Fell to a low of 19.6% four weeks back after falling rapidly from 25% just couple weeks ago. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% on this move and it fell to 18% in August. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on this run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005).
NASDAQ
Stats: -68.06 points (-2.52%) to close at 2627.94
Volume: 2.983B (-14.86%). Volume was lower but as noted above, it was not that low. Outside of Thursday it was the highest trade since the August selling. More NASDAQ distribution as techs were dumped.
Up Volume: 588.758M (-135.619M)
Down Volume: 2.38B (-388.565M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.94 to 1. Not horrible, but the selling was in the large cap techs as NASDAQ 100 declined 3.41%, and the large cap techs are what led the market higher.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.15 to 1
New Highs: 51 (+24)
New Lows: 335 (+116)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Gapped lower below the 90 day SMA, tested it intraday, and then rolled over to close near the session lows. It held right at the June high (2626) on the close, the last real support above the 200 day SMA (2578). NASDAQ is in full retreat though the selling has been intense in just three sessions (-7.3%), and that kind of drop tends to bounce in relief. Some more downside early in the week sets up a rebound.
SOX (-0.26%) was up much of the session, and though it gave up the modest gains by the close due to that late selling, it held above the Thursday low and it looks ready to rebound as it has put in a similar decline to that in October. It along with SP600, the smaller indices, looks to be harbingers of a relief bounce to come this week.
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -21.07 points (-1.43%) to close at 1453.7
NYSE Volume: 1.826B (-14.31%). Volume was down but still the strongest since September (the rate cut day) outside of the massive surge on Thursday. More distribution for the large caps.
Up Volume: 546.135M (-574.988M)
Down Volume: 1.265B (+208.871M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.71 to 1. Still more strength to the downside than to the upside.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.09 to 1
New Highs: 33 (-5)
New Lows: 402 (+197). Getting to the point where you want to see it to start falling in line with other indicators such as the put/call ratio, volatility.
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
Gapped lower and closed near the session lows but also at the Thursday low similar to SOX. It cracked through the February peak to close at some support at 1450. If it completes the head and shoulders pattern it broke down from on Wednesday that would put it down near 1425. Trying to put in an interim bottom to bounce this coming week, but it may take a bit more downside to set that move.
SP600 (-1.20%) sold down to the Thursday low and rebounded for what was a somewhat 'modest' loss compared to the recent sessions. It is holding on the lows some prior support levels, namely the August closing low. As with SOX, SP600 looks ready to make a relief move. It has just about consummated a 'textbook' loss after breaking lower from its September to October head and shoulders pattern.
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
The blue chips continued lower, breaking below the Thursday low, but holding at the September low and the late August low made after the index rebounded out of the hard drop in mid-August. It took out the 200 day SMA (13,218) on Friday, and with that it has opened the door to the next logical support point at the February peak at 12,786. It may be ready to bounce at this point, however, given the action on SP500, SP600, and SOX. It would not hurt at all for it to test lower one more session to start the week to really drive up the anxiety level and give a good run into option expiration.
Stats: -223.55 points (-1.69%) to close at 13042.74
Volume: 356M shares Friday versus 403M shares Thursday. Volume remained very high as the Dow dropped like a stone once more. Clearly distribution continues.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
MONDAY
When the market is weak, Mondays are always a question mark. News can come out over the weekend, analysts and companies make announcements; basically a weak market can find things it doesn't like on any given Monday.
We would not be too upset to see some more downside to start the week and get the 'oh no, here we go again' chant going and the fear back up. Another sharp downside move would likely spring the reversal and relief bounce. If Monday starts of significantly challenging (a.k.a. down big) then we would look for a sharp rebound that same day, and we would also look to buy some runners to take us upside for a few sessions.
It is options expiration week and after a big downside move ahead of expiration, historically there is a sharp rebound into the expiration. One reason for that is that the downside run has really inflated volatility in options, particularly put options. They are for the most part inflated well beyond historically normal levels. Far beyond historical levels. That is one reason we were not running out and buying a bunch of downside puts because it was very difficult to find the right price, delta, and potential for decline that would make the risk/reward worth it. We made some good money on AMR, LRCX, A to the downside last week, but it was hard to find plays in their category, i.e. reasonable return for a reasonable risk.
In any event, with implied option volatility so high (the range in which the stock is anticipated to trade; the wider the range, the higher the volatility pricing component) and expiration coming, you can anticipate a sharp rebound as the market moves to zero out the positions with the most open interests. It has happened time after time through history, and this is one of the ripest expiration weeks in this regard we can remember. With so many crowded into the downside play on the SPY, DIA and QQQQ, the likelihood of a rebound against those positions following this steep decline is high. When it starts, the squeeze action only fuels the fire.
If there is some statement from Treasury as we are starting to anticipate, then that move gets some gasoline thrown on top of it, and a shorter term relief bounce into expiration may grow some legs and give us something toward a start of a run into year end. There are so many negatives that have been bought heavily into by investors (e.g. large cap tech, shorting the dollar), all it takes is for a belief there is change afoot to create a stampede for the door. Large cap tech was a classic example; AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, RIMM could do no wrong. They did quite all right for us but started to crack and we sold. They have been pounded subsequently. When the buyers are gone the reversals can be dramatic. This has been a big downside push, both sharp and deep for such a short period of time. News relating to a dollar intervention would crush the dollar shorts in similar manner.
That of course is dependent upon the Treasury. For now we are simply looking for a relief bounce in part in response to the sharp selloff (the action of SOX, SP600 indicate it is nearing) and also the crowded downside trade heading into options expiration. At some point before expiration we anticipate a rather sharp bounce.
When we get it we see how it plays out. As noted earlier, despite the selling there are some very good stocks that are in excellent position to move higher, and a relief bounce will free them to do so. We are looking at some of these to ride higher for a few sessions, more if the move morphs into something stronger such as in the event the Treasury finally says something with some backbone in it. Depending upon the strength of the move we would also use some solid upside to close out some laggards if they bounce but then start to stall at resistance. We would also be ready to move in on the downside in the event the indices start to stall at resistance, looking for some better risk/reward if the put options can lose some of the high premiums on the bounce higher.
With respect to the downside, when premiums are so high as they are now we like to sell call options on stocks that are set up to fall, e.g. after they rebound from heavy selling and stall at resistance. We sell an at the money call, let the stock fall, then buy the options back after a sharp decline and pocket the difference. You have to have plenty of experience and have approval of your broker to do that, as well as the capital to cover the position if it turns against you. It is very lucrative, however, if you can do it, particularly given the high premiums built into option prices right now. Now if you cannot sell naked, you can always sell calls against any stock positions you have that have option chains as the stock acts as collateral for the sale. After the bounce higher to resistance, when the stock starts to fall back you can sell an at the money or slightly in the money call, let the stock fall, then when the decline slows, buy the call back and keep the cash difference. That is a covered call and it is a great way to put a stock you are keeping to work for you even when it makes a pullback.
In sum, the market is not in any great position right now to launch a new attack on the old highs. It is setting up, however, for a relief bounce from some pretty hefty selling the past week, and indeed, for most of November. We can use that bounce to our advantage in three ways, and we will just have to see how strong it is and what if anything the Treasury does re the dollar to help the Fed do its job. It is clear the market has changed character and we simply shift with it, anticipating the moves and taking care of business when it makes the move.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2627.94
Resistance:
The 90 day SMA at 2661
2673 is the early July high
2727 is the November/December/February up trendline
2725 is the July high
The 50 day EMA at 2724
2778 from a July 1999 peak
2794 is the November/February up trendline
2834 is the October interim peak
2861.51 is the October peak
Support:
2634.60 is the June peak
2600 is some minor support.
The 200 day SMA at 2578
2550 to 2540 from May/June consolidation
2525 is the February closing high
2451 is the August closing low
2386 is the August intraday low
S&P 500: Closed at 1453.70
Resistance:
1459 is the February peak
1475 from peaks in December 1999 and January 2000
The 200 day SMA at 1483
1490.72 is the early June closing low and early August peak.
The 90 day SMA at 1502
The 50 day EMA at 1514
1528 is the July 2006/March 2007 up trendline
1534 is the early July high
1539 is the mid-June intraday high
1541 is the early June high
1553 intraday high from March 2000 used to be the all-time peak
1556 is the July intraday high
1576 is the October intraday high.
Support:
1450 from February and April interim peaks
1440 - 1437 from January and March peaks
1425 is some minor support.
1406 is the August closing low
1375 is the March closing low
1370 is the August intraday low
Dow: Closed at 13,042.74
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 13,219
13,425 is the July 2006/March 2007 up trendline
The 90 day SMA at 13,582
The 50 day EMA at 13,642
The early July peak at 13,671
The early June high at 13,676 (closing), 13,692 (intraday)
The mid-June high at 13,689
The August high at 13,696
The July high at 14,022
14,088 is the early October closing high
14,198 is the October intraday high.
Support:
13,041 is some minor support
12,845 is the August closing low
12,786 is the February peak
12,518 is the August low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
November 13
Pending home sales, September (10:00): -2.0% expected, -6.5% prior
November 14
Retail sales, October (8:30): -$53.0B expected, -$49.3B prior
PPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 1.1% prior
Core PPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Business inventories, September (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): -821K prior
November 15
CPI, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 317K prior
NY Empire State PMI, November (8:30): 21.0 expected, 28.8 prior
Philly Fed, November (12:00): 6.0 expected, 6.8 prior
November 16
Net foreign purchases, September (9:00): $-69.3B prior
Industrial production, October (9:15): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Capacity utilization, October (9:15): 82.1% expected, 82.1% prior
End part 1 of 3
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