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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Announcement play:
Play Date: 11/10/2007
KMT (Kennametal--$87.72; -1.78; optionable): Consumable metal cutting tools, etc. used in manufacturing processes. Splits 2:1 on 12-19-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-3-07
STATUS: Pre-Split breakout test. Great break higher in late October that took it up to the base high made in July. Tried to make the breakout in late October, but the selling took it back to test near support at the 18 day EMA (87.46) on the Friday close. In short, it held the line well in the market selling. Very nice strength in the test, and that is a harbinger of a break higher when the selling pressure lets up in the market. Showed some excellent upside volume Thursday, and looking for some more of that to make the move into the position.
Volume: 431K Avg Volume: 439.658K
BUY POINT: $89.31 Volume=650K Target=$99.95 Stop=$87.28
POSITION: KMT AQ - Jan. $85c 59 delta, 87 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmt.html
New Post-Split:
Play Date: 11/10/2007
BTU (Peabody Energy--$55.87; +1.22; optionable): Worldwide coal operations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-6-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BTU Broke out from a nice 24 week cup with handle base in the last half of October, looking supoer as it surged higher on strong volume. It peaked near 59 and started a modest test to the 10 day EMA. Looked great, but then gapped lower to start this month as it spun off a subsidiary & that was taken out of the stock. It sold back to the 50 day EMA but has bounced back, clearing the 10 day EMA last week, testing that move, then starting back up on Friday as the market sold off. Excellent relative strength and looking to move into BTU as it continues higher with this move.
Volume: 6.975M Avg Volume: 4.599M
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=6M Target=$64.95 Stop=$53.68
POSITION: BTU CK - Mar. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/btu.html
Play Date: 11/10/2007
TISI (Team, Inc.--$32.46; -0.27; no options): Maintenance and construction services for high pressure piping systems and vessels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tisi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-3-07
STATUS: Test breakout. We exited TISI last week with a modest gain in a precautionary move, but it managed to hold at the 10 day EMA (32.15) on the close. That keeps it in play for a move higher from this short but very nice 4 week base. A top rated stock in terms of fundamentals growth to go along with its good technical pattern. Looking to move right back in as TISI shows us the break higher once more.
Volume: 173.24K Avg Volume: 149.031K
BUY POINT: $33.37 Volume=200K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.84
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tisi.html
New Leader Play: Could give us a split in the future.
Play Date: 11/10/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$113.05; -0.75; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. DO broke higher from a 7 week base in mid-September but could never put the move away. It made a couple of attempts at breaking higher in October, but could not put the move away. It sold back to the 50 day EMA to end the month and there it held even during the hard market selling the past two weeks, working laterally on lower, below average volume. Like how it used the selling to consolidate. Just going to watch it and see if DO can deliver the strong price and volume break higher to signal it is ready to move again and that we should buy into it.
Volume: 1.882M Avg Volume: 2.25M
BUY POINT: $116.65 Volume=3.4M Target=$133.95 Stop=$112.32
POSITION: DO AC - Jan. $115c (58 delta) or DO CD - Mar. $120c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Downside: Not all stocks were sold out as a result of last week.
Play Date: 11/10/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$78.89; -4.69; optionable): Online retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-07
STATUS: Put. Earnings were great in later October and AMZN gapped higher. It gapped lower the next session, indicating that, after a long, strong run higher in 2007, it had lost its drive. Moreover, retail is in the doghouse as more and more anticipate a dreary holiday sales season. That may or may not be the case, but AMZN is in trouble and heading lower, gapping below the 90 day SMA (83.36) where it held three times on the week. It cracked some significant support and closed at the session low. Ready to move in and ride it lower as it continues the breakdown from a 9 week broad umbrella top. A move to the initial target lands a 38%ish gain. If it is heading lower hard at that target we will let some of the position ride lower.
Volume: 11.621M Avg Volume: 8.105M
BUY POINT: $78.67 Volume=12M Target=$74.05 Stop=$80.05
POSITION: ZQN XP - Dec. $80p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amzn.html
Play Date: 11/10/2007
CMI (Cummins--$120.56; -4.30; optionable): Large engines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Put. CMI is breaking lower in what appears to be the right shoulder of a 13 week head and shoulders base. It imploded on earnings in late October but rebounded through midweek last week. It could not hold up, however, gapping lower Friday. It rallied to test the 90 day SMA (122.04) that it breached on the gap, but it faded back. Looking to move in as CMI continues lower as it has a lot more downside to it. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain, and it has room to sell lower down near 110 where it bottomed in October and in early September. If it is selling hard at the target point we let at least some positions continue lower.
Volume: 1.752M Avg Volume: 1.992M
BUY POINT: $119.97 Volume=2M Target=$113.55 Stop=$122.12
POSITION: CDM XD - Dec. $120p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Cracked last week and fell to the 50 day EMA. We are going to watch and see how it recovers and whether it can give us a new buy point before January and a likely split announcement then.
ATK: Giving us the test of the breakout.
ATW: Likely to announce in January. Setting up for some upside.
BUCY: No announcement with earnings, but after a bit of volatility it is ready for more upside.
CNQ: Testing to set up the next upside move even though no split announcement.
EDU: Watching to see how it recovers and if it will give us a new buy.
EOG: Anticipating an announcement in late January
ISRG: Looking to pinpoint a date.
JEC: Strong earnings but no split. Letting it set up for the next move.
JOYG: Researching date. Likely around earnings in mid-December but struggled to close out the week.
MICC: Tentatively forecast for mid-December
PCP: Researching date.
RIG: Nice test setting up a new buy.
SID: Tentatively set for mid-November
STLD: Researching date.
SU: Researching date.
XTO: Researching date. Sold hard Wednesday but holding the key 50 day EMA for now
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
New buy point:
Play Date: 11/10/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$114.47; -1.99; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice strong surge on high volume to start November as ATK produced some solid earnings. The move cleared a 12 week ascending base with solid strength, and though it sold back to end the week in the market dump lower it held the breakout with a nice close at the 18 day EMA on Friday. Basically used the market selling to test the breakout move and that places it in good position to continue higher as the selling eases as the market rebounds in a relief rally. No relief move for ATK, however; it is in a great pattern with a strong breakout.
Volume: 252.751K Avg Volume: 327.533K
BUY POINT: $115.89 Volume=495K Target=$132.95 Stop=$113.57
POSITION: ATK BC - Feb. $115c (49 delta, 137 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atk.html
Play Date: 11/10/2007
MA (MasterCard--$193.00; +1.56; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. When most of the credit service companies are struggling, MA is taking bags of money to the bank. We were looking to move in to end October and missed our opportunity; it announced strong earnings and gapped sharply higher, clearing an excellent 18 week cup with handle base. Big surge that took it to a psychological level at 200 on the move. It stalled there Wednesday, and in the Thursday and Friday selling it came back to test the 10 day EMA (185) on the session lows each session. Friday it rebounded to post a modest gain. May do some more lateral testing here before it is ready to make the break, but this stock has been so strong we want to be ready to move in as it resumes its breakout run.
Volume: 4.338M Avg Volume: 3.697M
BUY POINT: $194.22 Volume=5M Target=$219.95 Stop=$189.89
POSITION: MAL AS - Jan. $195c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/08/2007
EOG (EOG Resources--$87.41; -0.71; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-29-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Ignored the selling last week, working laterally as the 10 day EMA (86.30) moved up to catch up with the late October break higher. Made it Thursday and Friday and volume was up and above average. Looks ready to move and we are just waiting on the next break higher to enter. To recap: EOG gapped higher on its earnings, clearing an 18 week cup with handle base. It rallied to 90 on the breakout and then moved laterally the past week, consolidating the breakout but refusing to give up any gains. Solid price/volume action as it moves laterally shows the accumulation continues as it consolidates. Strong money flow is leading higher and looking to move in as EOG continues the breakout move after this test during the market selling, a test where it lost no ground.
Volume: 3.148M Avg Volume: 2.683M
BUY POINT: $88.89 Volume=3.2M Target=$101.95 Stop=$85.89
POSITION: EOQ DQ - Apr. $85c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eog.html
Play Date: 11/08/2007
RIG (Transocean--$125.36; -1.15; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test of the early month breakout, coming back to test the strong breakout move, tapping the 10 day EMA (123) on the Thursday low and bouncing, then sagging just a fraction Friday in a weak market. Just patiently waiting for the next break higher on volume. To recap: Basically immune to the selling, RIG cleared the highs in a 13 week base to end October and surged higher through Wednesday when it reversed off its high and started the test of the move. Thursday it sold down to the 10 day EMA (123) on the low and then rebounded for a modest gain. Looking to move in as RIG continues higher. Still early in the breakout move.
Volume: 6.899M Avg Volume: 6.388M
BUY POINT: $127.05 Volume=7M Target=$142.00 Stop=$122.65
POSITION: RIG BE - Feb. $125c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rig.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/25/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$153.03; -4.88; optionable): Farm and construction machinery. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Testing the 18 day EMA (152.40) on Friday on rising, above average volume, but still like its strength in the market and its positioning will let it do that. Looking for the test to end with a strong break higher and that is when we move in for some more positions. To recap: DE showed its strength last week, holding gains as the market sold off. It did sell back, but it held near support at the 10 day EMA and bounced Thursday on rising, above average volume. Excellent action as it forms a short 4 week base that gave it a rest and test of the 50 day EMA after the late August breakout from a base and run up the 10 day EMA. Money flow remains strong and so does DE. Looking to move in as it breaks higher once more.
Volume: 2.751M Avg Volume: 2.621M
BUY POINT: $154.63 Volume=3M Target=$169.65 Stop=$157.32
POSITION: DE AJ - Jan. $150c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/07/2007
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$40.43; -0.60; optionable): Contract research for drug development and discovery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Another doji Friday at the 18 day EMA as PPDI continued the test of its strong breakout move. Just waiting for the next break higher on strong volume. To recap: PPDI formed a nice handle in October and its earnings propelled it to the breakout from a large 15 month cup with handle base. Nice strong volume on a big surge higher. It has come back to test this week, using the market selling to test back to the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday close. Volume was low on the test so we know there was not much selling. This stock tends to move on low volume, so when we see a high volume breakout it means there is something solid behind it. Looking for it to hold and then rebound on some better (not a whole lot, however) volume to move in.
Volume: 1.117M Avg Volume: 808.185K
BUY POINT: $41.42 Volume=950K Target=$47.75 Stop=$40.41
POSITION: PJQ DH - Apr. $40c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Play Date: 11/05/2007
SCSC (Scansource--$33.68; -0.81; optionable): Specialty technology products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Sold on Friday but held the 18 d
On the close with a doji. Low volume continued showing no heavy selling, just biding its time for an opening to bounce back up and continue its breakout move. To recap: Strong break higher on the earnings results, gapping out of a 17 week double bottom with handle base. It has come back to test the move, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Monday low. Has not filled the gap but was moving up after it opened lower, and it may be some time before it does fill it. In other words, if it is moving higher on volume from here we won't wait for the fill as SCSC moves toward a bigger breakout from a 3 year base to a new all-time high.
Volume: 165.185K Avg Volume: 251.482K
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=375K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: UHI CG - Mar. $35c (55 delt, 66 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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