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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some more upside and downside to take advantage of the market.
Upside:
Play Date: 11/13/2007
COST (Costco--$67.41; +1.68; optionable): Discount warehouse stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cost.html
EARNINGS: 12-13-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. COST broke higher in early October, gapping to the upside on very strong volume as it broke out from a 9 week double bottom base. This last move broke COST out from a long 7 year base where it struggled to move higher. Money flow is still moving higher ahead of price and on Tuesday COST was up on stronger, above average volume. One of the best looking retailers out there, and with the issues relating to the economy ahead, it is showing very nice technical strength. Looking for a continued move higher on volume to move into some positions.
Volume: 5.844M Avg Volume: 4.826M
BUY POINT: $68.11 Volume=7.2M Target=$77.95 Stop=$64.77
POSITION: PRQ DU - Apr. $67.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cost.html
Play Date: 11/13/2007
QMAR (Quintana Maritime--$26.47; +2.78; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qmar.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-5-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. QMAR sold in the selling this month, but it also held support at the 50 day EMA (23.69) as it did, filling the gap from mid-October as it tested. Tuesday QMAR was up on a solid jump in above average volume, moving back up through the 10 and 18 day EMA as it made the move. Solid money flow is leading higher and we are looking to move into QMAR as it continues higher on solid volume. It held up much better than most in the selling and it is showing good upside pop off a key support level.
Volume: 1.446M Avg Volume: 884.789K
BUY POINT: $26.66 Volume=1M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: CQU CE - Mar. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qmar.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/13/2007
C (Citigroup--$35.90; +2.33; optionable): Big bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-15-07
STATUS: Put. Pretty ugly downtrend since October when it really broke down and started an entrenched downtrend below the 10 day EMA (35.97). It has rebounded the past three and one-half sessions after a really sharp decline to start November, bouncing back on continued above average volume though it has declined each session. It rallied up to the 10 day EMA (35.97) on Tuesday and we are watching for a stall here as this is the moving average that stopped it the last time it tried to bounce in late October. Looking to catch it as it rolls back over. A move to the initial target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 105.711M Avg Volume: 57.934M
BUY POINT: $35.69 Volume=100M Target=$32.54 Stop=$36.05
POSITION: C XU - Dec. $37.50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/c.html
Play Date: 11/13/2007
SBUX (Starbucks--$23.99; +0.85; optionable): High priced coffees
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-07 after the close
STATUS: Put. People may be addicted to coffee, but as the consumer softens some we may see just how addicted they are to a $5 cup of joe. Moreover, McDonalds is cutting in with some gourmet coffee of its own to go along with a hunk of fat to get your morning going. SBUX made us a lot of downside money in late 2006 and the first half of 2007 as it trended lower and now after this 4 month lateral move it collapsed to start this month. It is now rebounding ahead of its earnings, moving higher this week. We are looking for it to hit the 10 day EMA (24.28) Wednesday and stall there. We don't anticipate it will benefit from its earnings, so we are looking to move in after the test of the 10 day even with earnings on Thursday after the close.
Volume: 15.798M Avg Volume: 10.493M
BUY POINT: $24.11 Volume=15M Target=$22.55 Stop=$24.48
POSITION: SQX XE - Dec. $25c (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sbux.html
Play Date: 11/13/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$148.08; +4.38; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. As SP500 has rallied back to the 200 day SMA (the SPY 200 day is 148.45) on lower trade we want to be ready in case it fails there. This market rebound can last for a few more days, but we suspect some are going to start selling into the strength in the financials, and when that happens, SPY is going to lose its rebound strength and roll over. If it continues higher, no problem; we will just let it continue higher on up to 150 or so and then move in when it rolls back over.
Volume: 191.117M Avg Volume: 193.196M
BUY POINT: $147.95 Volume=200M Target=$144.00 Stop=$148.54
POSITION: SFB XR - Dec. $148p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spy.html
Play Date: 11/13/2007
TIF (Tiffany--$48.78; +3.42; optionable): High end jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tif.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Put. TIF should do fine in the holiday season, but as with any stock it is not the immediate future but what is beyond several months down the road that matters. Thus it has struggled of late with the retailers are holding out rather nicely through mid-October. Then it rolled over and tanked to 44. It is bouncing, and similar to SP500, it is now a the 200 day SMA (48.92) on lower though still above average volume. Want to be ready in the event the sellers come back in and send it lower from this key level. It is key because the 200 day SMA is where big money either supports its stock or it sells it. The fact that TIF broke down below its 200 day on strong volume shows they were selling. Now we will see if they sell it again as it tests that level.
Volume: 3.279M Avg Volume: 2.516M
BUY POINT: $48.48 Volume=3.8M Target=$45.50 Stop=$49.12
POSITION: TIF XJ - Dec. $50p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tif.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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