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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Looking at some well-positioned upside plays given the selling has taken most downside opportunities out of buy range for the moment.
Play Date: 11/19/2007
BIDZ (Bidz.com, Inc.--$17.78; +0.93; no options): Online jewelry sales auction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidz.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-12-07
STATUS: Test breakout. A new issue in June, things are bidding up nicely for Bidz. It tested last Tuesdays breakout from its 6 week ascending triangle, breaking higher on a strong earnings report. Gapped higher Monday, tested the gap, and moved back up. Money flow is running higher ahead of price and BIDZ is following it. This is BIDZ' second base in its short life, and that means it has plenty of room left upside to makes us some solid profits. Excellent earnings and sales growth rates are vaulting BIDZ up rapidly.
Volume: 1.903M Avg Volume: 269.092K
BUY POINT: $17.92 Volume=750K Target=$25.72 Stop=$16.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bidz.html
Play Date: 11/19/2007
MO (Altria Group--$73.84; +0.66; optionable): Tobacco
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-17-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. May not be the fastest mover in the market, but, there are forces at work that make MO a pretty solid play right now. First is its pattern, a nice three week lateral range over the 18 day EMA (72.43) that is consolidating the October move higher that took MO over the May to July peaks and to a new all-time high. It showed some very nice price/volume action in this lateral range, i.e. moving higher on rising trade and lower on lower trade. Second, it is a more defensive play in a market that warrants a bit more caution. The accumulation is rising and MO bounced higher Friday, knocking at a breakout once more. Solid break higher Monday on strong volume. Ready to move in.
Volume: 14.163M Avg Volume: 10.623M
BUY POINT: $74.25 Volume=16M Target=$83.45 Stop=$72.32
POSITION: MO CN - Mar. $70c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mo.html
Play Date: 11/19/2007
SNWL (Sonicwall--$10.36; -0.01; optionable): Integrated network security, mobility and productivity solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snwl.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After jumping sharply higher on its earnings to end October, SNWL has used the market selling this month to form a handle to a 13 month base. Nice test to the 18 day EMA (10.25), shaking out the sellers and setting up the breakout move. Very nice pattern and just going to wait and see if it delivers the breakout to the upside.
Volume: 483.676K Avg Volume: 618.943K
BUY POINT: $10.88 Volume=750K Target=$13.11 Stop=$10.12
POSITION: UWL CB - Mar. $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/snwl.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 11/17/2007
GOOG (Google--$625.85; -7.78; optionable): Internet search, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Lost some ground Monday but on lower, below average volume and still holding near the 50 day EMA (628.21), bouncing off the 50 day SMA on the intraday low. Being patient, letting it finish its test, and seeing if it will show us that upside break. To recap: Another one of the high fliers that broke its strong, strong uptrend along the 10 day EMA a couple of weeks back and flopped to the 50 day EMA. This comes after the September break higher from a 10 week cup base. The breakout and run higher up the 10 day EMA is normal action. The test of the 50 day EMA after 5 rotations up the 10 day EMA following the breakout is normal action. A strong stock will regroup at the 50 day EMA and then continue higher. Friday GOOG tested the 50 day SMA on the intraday low and then rebounded for a gain on the best volume since Monday. Now the expiration trade skewed the volume so we have to basically exclude that. We like, however, the hold at this key level, and if the market was in better shape this would be a no brainer. As it is, we want to see GOOG hold the line here and then post a strong volume break higher to show us the buyers are moving back in. We will move in as well and see if it can click off another run to 700 or the prior high near 735. We are using options given the price, though the options are not what you would call cheap.
Volume: 5.524M Avg Volume: 5.704M
BUY POINT: New: $633. 89 (orig. $639.11) Volume=8.6M Target=$699.75 Stop=$627.55
POSITION: GOO AH - Jan. $640c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/goog.html
Play Date: 11/17/2007
GSOL (Global Sources Ltd.--$27.41; -0.74; no options): B2B internet services, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsol.html
EARNINGS: announced 11-15-07
STATUS: Test 50 day MA. Faded modestly Monday, falling back to the 50 day EMA on the close on much lower, below average volume. No heavy selling in a weak market, and still looking for an upside move from GSOL as NASDAQ tries a relief bounce. To recap: Another stock that broke out in October and surged higher only to sell back in the November leader selloff. A very nice 13 week cup with handle base and strong breakout sent GSOL to 38. It tested and tried to continue the move but was sold hard for a week through last Monday. It bottomed at the 50 day SMA (26.26) last week, holding it on four sessions. It announced earnings that were solid but the market mood was not good and it fell again to the 50 day EMA on Thursday, only to sell again Friday but then rebounded for a solid gain. Money flow is solid and has turned back up sharply ahead of price. Looking for more strong volume as GSOL continues the break higher, and want to see it above the 18 day EMA (29.40) to show it means business. There is some resistance at 30, and if you want to be really cautious you can wait for a high volume move through that level. If we see strong volume as it makes the break through the 18 day, however, we are willing to start some positions and then add when it blows through 30.
Volume: 303.644K Avg Volume: 336.015K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=500K Target=$36.45 Stop=$27.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gsol.html
Play Date: 11/10/2007
MA (MasterCard--$181.90; -2.97; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Faded a bit Monday, but a nice, tight doji at the 18 day EMA (180.66) keeps the stock in good shape for the break higher. Just have to be patient and wait for the break higher. To recap: When most of the credit service companies are struggling, MA is taking bags of money to the bank. It announced strong earnings to end October and gapped sharply higher, clearing an excellent 18 week cup with handle base. Big surge that took it to a psychological level at 200 on the move. It stalled there and came back to test the 10 day EMA on the session lows each session.
Volume: 2.443M Avg Volume: 3.626M
BUY POINT: $187.31 (orig. $191.68) Volume=5M Target=$219.95 Stop=$186.22
POSITION: MAL AS - Jan. $195c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ma.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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