stock split, stock research

Begin Part 3 of 3

FLIR (Flir Sys--$47.64; +0.19; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that FLIR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Has made some nice moves of late, but a move climaxed with a gap and reversal last week. Such a move makes us look for a drop, and although FLIR tested its 10 day MVA (46.66), it held that level and has formed a pennant. Today it calmed down with a doji, again testing near the 10 day at its intraday low of 46.90, with volume dipping back to 318,000 (average 364,500). Still looking good, and we will look for a breakout, with the high at 50.01 (from last week), and a target of 58.
BUY POINT: 49.35 on volume of 492,000. Stop: 45.90 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (FFQ GI).

DHR (Danaher--$65.28; -0.82; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-6-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-1-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has enough shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Received an upgrade and broke out last Wednesday with a gap up, but has not been able to do much after that move. However, DHR has hung in, today gapping back a bit but holding on with a tight doji on increased volume of 1.27 million (average 1.09 million). Still could see another test back, but are still looking for DHR to hold 64. If it shows strong support there, we will look at new or additional positions with a run back up on continued strong volume. Targeting 72 (high is 69.81).
BUY POINT: Test of 64: On a lower-volume test that holds 64, a run back over 65 on continued strong volume. Stop: 60.54 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (DHR FL).

POST SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) VAR - Orderly pullback
2) CHBS - Just hanging on

VAR (Varian Medical--$39.19; -0.60; optionable): Split 2:1 on 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Surged again last week after testing its breakout from a 'flying w' with handle formed since November. It tapped up to 40.75 last week before gently pulling back, and although it dropped back a bit more Tuesday, it was on lower volume (437,800; average 345,000), and it is still holding support at its 10 day MVA (39.11). Current positions we are riding toward the target of 46, but we do not want to see a further drop through the 18 day MVA (38.49, with the November high just under it as additional support). We will look for VAR to hold the 10 day, and then we can look at new or additional positions on another strong move up.
PLAY: After holding 39, a move over 40 with volume in the 500,000 range. Stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (VAR EG). Stop: 37.29.

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$29.11; -0.79; optionable): Split 3:2 December 13.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Continues to consolidate under the 50 day MVA (30.01), tapping that level again on Tuesday as volume remained quite low (120.700; average 436,000). It is just hanging on, and has hit down to the 28.70 level on three recent occasions. We are holing onto current put positions as we target the 200 day MVA (24.35), and await the stronger selling to kick in. We can take new or additional positions on a drop through the recent consolidation lows.
PLAY: On a drop through 28.64, April $35 puts to buy (URH PG - no open interest as yet).

****

WATCHLISTS: Many of these have made such good moves lately we have put them here to look for the next entry point.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: BRL, CTAS, DRI, EXPD, MRBK, AROW, IFIN and XL.

LSTR ($78.90; -0.89): Researching a new date. Dipped through the 50 day (78.39), but recovered from the low of 76.85. Still looking for it to hold here, and the bounce play is on a move over the short-term MVA's (80.80) on above average volume (60,500), with stock.

GTK ($49.85; -0.60): Working on a new date. Dipped back slightly today, still holding the 18 day MVA (80.80) as volume remains low (208,100; average 396,600). Looking for it to hold the 18 day for a higher low, and a move over the high (51.48) on volume of 500,000, with stock and/or June $47.50 calls to buy (GTK FW).

DRS ($38.55; -0.70): Is holding the short-term MVA's (38.26) after DRS looked to be ready to dive last week after taking out the 50 day MVA (36.70) intraday Wednesday. The handle high is still out there at 43, but the aggressive can look at a move over 40 on above average volume (240,000, today 207,200), with stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (DRS FG).

CTAS ($46.41; +0.10): Announces earnings on 3-14-02 before the open, but they typically announce with a board meeting. There was such a meeting in late January, but they also could announce in late February when they announce anticipated earnings. Trying to hold the 200 day (46.03), showing a hammer doji today over that support. Has a bit to overcome (50 day at 48), so we will see what it does.

INVN ($37.50; -1.54): Forecast to announce a split on 2-28-02 with a special meeting to increase authorized shares. INVN is forming a handle to its small cup dating back to December (all-time high 47.09), but today again gave up its 18 day MVA (38.47), although volume was low (768,600; average 3.1 million). Going toward the forecast we will see if it can hang on or visit the 50 day (33.43). The handle high is 46.20, but we can look at a move over the recent high of 42.64 on above average volume, with stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (FQQ GG).

BMS ($53.15; -0.34): Working on a date. Earnings were 1-24-02. Still looking strong, although after Friday's solid move it gapped back for a doji on higher volume (309,100; average 228,800). Still targeting 60, but we could see a move back to the 10 day (with December highs, at 39.18). From here, on a move over 53.90 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (BMS GJ).

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST:

HTLD ($32.37; -1.03): Splits 3:2 effective 2-20-02. Could not hold on, dropping through the 18 day (33.26) and down toward the 50 day (31.49) as we go into tomorrow's split. We will see if it can again find support there and hold it through the split.

BLL ($84.50; +0.06): Splits 2:1 effective February 22. Watching for a possible drop as we got into the split. Today BLL showed a doji at its upper channel trendline (from connecting September-November highs), and volume spiked up (385,900; average 258,600). That action can spell a pullback, so we need to be ready. Looking at possible support for a consolidation at the 10 day MVA (81.57; 18 day at 79.17), although after a run like this we need to be prepared for a possible rapid drop as well.

ACS ($94.14; -0.99): Splits 2:1 effective 2-25-02. Got a move back through the put buy point today, although after hitting down to 93.20 ACS rebounded slightly to close on its 10 day MVA. Remember, this could be, like a pre-split to the upside, a quick play where we grab a couple of points and move on. There is support from recent intraday lows at 88, but we could get a drop as low as the recent lows (87.50-88.50), which approach the 200 day MVA, at 86.06. The aggressive can also play it from here on a move through 94, with April $105 puts to buy (ACS PA - very low open interest).

GILD ($64.51; -1.23): Splits 2:1 effective March 8. Has fallen back again through its 50 day MVA (66.12), although with the 'hammer' doji today it could move back up to test that level. Has been a bit erratic in its pattern, so we will see if it settles into something playable. We have the time. The recent high is 71.15, with the high at 73.67.

WERN ($25.40; +0.09): Splits 4:3 on or about March 15. Trying to hold on, showing a doji today just under the 50 day MVA (25.70). Last time down the stock also hit below the 50 day, with the recent low at 24.75. If it can hold we will see if it will give us a move back up toward the high (29.57).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include BBBY, EDS, ETH, MI, STJ (4/17 earnings) and THQI.

APPB ($32.98; -0.82): We flipped APPB to a downside play, and today it did not disappoint, continuing the drop that took it through the 50 day MVA (34.80) last Friday. Target is the 200 day MVA, at 31.06.

GNSS ($40.25; -4.51): Has been a great play! Now it is at the revised target of the 200 day MVA (40.64). With the strong volume on the selling, we will see if the stock will bounce, which could trigger profit-taking if it is a strong move up. However, a dip through the 200 day could take the stock down to 35 or lower.

GOSHA ($39.00; -2.65): Dropped through the 50 day MVA (40.10), selling on very strong volume of 59,900 (average 43,700). We knew it would either break out or fall. With the strong selling we will see if it can recover back into the pattern. Not looking good at the moment.

JCI ($85.24; +0.04): Is holding up over its 10 day MVA (84.28) and early February highs at 85, trying to preserve gains from its 50 day MVA bounce (50 day at 80.86), which peaked at a new high of 86.90. With two consecutive dojis, we could see a bounce coming. The play is a move to a new high on volume of 500,000, with July $80 calls to buy (JCI GP).

LLL ($109.36; -0.36): Very strong, although the pattern today of a 'tombstone' doji could signal a drop back to test the move. It has hit the target of 110, so we are looking at taking some money off of the table on a test back. With the recent strength, however, we can also look at holding some positions on a move back to the 105 range (10 day at 105.83), although we would be wary of a drop through that support.

PII ($55.28; -0.09): Holding the 50 day (55.19), showing its second consecutive doji on continued strong volume (144,600; average 120,000). The aggressive can play a move over 56.50 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or June $50 calls to buy (PII FJ).

THC ($60.00; -0.50): In the power dive, but recovered from the intraday low of 58.90. Volume remained strong (3.08 million; average 1.76 million), and the momentum is decidedly down, although we could see a test back up toward 61 (50 day at 62) before a continued drop. Targeting the 200 day at 56.

WLP ($126.20; -1.75): Holding the 18 day MVA (126.19). Although we are targeting longer-term positions for 140, we had also been eying a short-term bounce play, and the aggressive can still play a move over 128.50 on increased volume (574,600; average 520,600), targeting 134 on a quick play. April $120 calls to buy (WLP DD).

YUM ($55.80; +0.27): Holding on, showing a doji over the short-term MVA's (18 day at 54.59). Hit a new high Friday at 56.77, but there was not much volume. We will see if it can hold a higher low this time, holding the 18 day and then making a stronger run at a new high. We are being cautious as there are some restaurants that have done well that are breaking down. On a move to a new high on volume of a million, with stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (YUM GJ).

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST:

CHS ($31.67; -0.57): Split 3:2 effective 1-22-02. After the gap up and reversal Thursday on sharply higher volume, CHS is trying to hold its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 31.86 and 30.95). Volume has been weak the last couple of days, so we will look for it to hold support here, wary of a a drop through that level and would close out short-term positions (50 day at 28).

MGAM ($27.50; +0.08): Split 3:2 on February 12. Topped out on its run going into the split, dropping back and now holding support at its December highs and short-term MVA's (18 day at 26.35). We will see if it can hold, and if it can, the aggressive can play a move over 29 on volume of 300,000 or better, with stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (QMG GG).

SONC ($25.37; -0.28): Split 3:2 effective 2-11-02. Continues to hold the 18 day (24.91), tapping that support at its low today. Showing good resiliency post split, and we could get a couple of more bounces from the 18 day with current positions. For new positions we will see if SONC can settle down and set up a bounce.

XRAY ($32.67; -0.55): Split 3:2 effective February 1. Gapped up and dropped back to close at the 50 day (32.76). We are looking for it to hold and set up something post-split.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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