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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/27/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$42.52; +1.82; optionable): Electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors, coax and flat-ribbon cables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-17-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume is up this week as APH broke higher Tuesday off the 50 day EMA (40.99), resuming the move after filling the gap from mid-October when it broke higher on its earnings. Nice gap and run higher, and then in the market selling it tested just as the other leaders, using the selling to come back to key support. Excellent break higher Tuesday, following rising money flow. Very nice and ready to move in as APH continues its move higher as well.
Volume: 1.213M Avg Volume: 930.478K
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.45 Stop=$40.88
POSITION: APH DH - Apr. $40c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Play Date: 11/27/2007
POT (Potash--$110.35; +2.84; optionable): Fertilizer and related feed products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. As with many other leaders, POT is testing this key support level, working laterally the past week on low, below average volume. Money flow is rising even as the stock price moves laterally. Nice set up for a market bounce, particularly with the rising money flow. Looking for a bit more volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 3.23M Avg Volume: 3.401M
BUY POINT: $111.88 Volume=4M Target=$128.95 Stop=$107.89
POSITION: PYP AB - Jan. $110c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pot.html
Play Date: 11/27/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$115.68; +4.14; optionable): Blackberry communication devices, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 12-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another leader in the last rally that is testing key support at the 50 day EMA (108.55) after a strong move up the 18 day EMA (113.59). Volume has bounced back above average this week as it bounced Tuesday. Looking for continues volume as RIMM makes a pre-holiday run.
Volume: 30.967M Avg Volume: 24.049M
BUY POINT: $116.22 Volume=32M Target=$133.95 Stop=$109.90
POSITION: RUL AU - Jan. $115c (57 delta) or RUL CU - Mar. $115c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 11/27/2007
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$49.59; -0.21; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SWN broke higher to start November, gapping out of a 20 week cup with handle base. It rallied to 56 on the high and in the market selling it filled the gap and tested lower to the 50 day EMA (48.20). It held there the past week, working laterally, setting up the next move higher to continue the breakout. Unlike many energy stocks, it has held up well and is ready to make the break higher despite lower oil prices (though at $94/bbl it is hard to call them low).
Volume: 2.691M Avg Volume: 2.207M
BUY POINT: $50.58 Volume=3.3M Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.97
POSITION: SWN CJ - Mar. $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 11/27/2007
CF (CF Industries--$85.15; +3.16; optionable): Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products in North America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-29-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Yet another stock testing the 50 day EMA (79.39), looking for a bounce higher in a market relief bounce. Broke out in late September and rallied higher on into early November, making us some nice money in the process. After rallying up the 18 day EMA (84.01) it has tested deeper in the market, selling, but it held key support at the 50 day and is trying to make a break higher in a market bounce. Looking for some more volume as it makes the move.
Volume: 1.925M Avg Volume: 1.926M
BUY POINT: $85.32 Volume=2.2M Target=$99.85 Stop=$81.89
POSITION: CF BQ - Feb. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cf.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still setting up for a break higher off the 50 day EMA. Looking for an announcement in January.
ATK: Looking for a February announcement.
ATW: Likely to announce in January. Still trying to recover, slipping to the 90 day SMA Tuesday.
BUCY: Strong move Monday, testing Tuesday. On a further test and bounce it is a buy.
COST: Forecast mid-December
EOG: Anticipating an announcement in late January
HRS: Looking to January for an announcement.
ISRG: Looking to pinpoint a date. Nice break higher.
MA: Researching date.
MICC: Tentatively forecast for mid-December
MON: Trying to make the bounce off the 50 day EMA
RIG: What a surge.
SID: No announcement in mid-November and not looking that strong.
STLD: Researching date. Still trying to make a stand at the 50 day EMA
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/27/2007
MON (Monsanto--$91.94; +2.61; optionable): Ag yes, but more of a biotech company now
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-10-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another leader in the last rally, another 50 day EMA (88.07) test. Excellent breakout in mid-September and run higher to 100. It has tested back and we are looking for another run toward 100 in a market bounce.
Volume: 3.562M Avg Volume: 4.608M
BUY POINT: $92.32 Volume=5M Target=$104.95 Stop=$89.18
POSITION: MON AU - Jan. $90c (58 delta) or MON DS - Apr. $95c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/10/2007
MA (MasterCard--$183.86; +2.65; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji that tested the 18 day EMA on the low and bounced to close just over the 10 day EMA (183). Very nice and volume is starting to rise. Needs some more trade to hold a move this time around. To recap: When most of the credit service companies are struggling, MA is taking bags of money to the bank. It announced strong earnings to end October and gapped sharply higher, clearing an excellent 18 week cup with handle base. Big surge that took it to a psychological level at 200 on the move. It stalled there and came back to test the 10 day EMA on the session lows each session.
Volume: 2.641M Avg Volume: 3.511M
BUY POINT: New: 187.42 (orig. $191.68) Volume=5M Target=$219.95 Stop=$186.22
POSITION: MAL AS - Jan. $195c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/26/2007
BTU (Peabody Energy--$51.73; -0.17; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-6-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tight doji over the 50 day EMA (51.07) as BTU still looks ready to make the next break higher. Just being patient and waiting for it to show the move. To recap: Tried to make the break from its 24 week base in late October, but it stumbled with the rest of the energy market, and fell back to the 50 day EMA. It bounced form there on earnings, then faded back the past two weeks to test the 50 day EMA again, holding that level last week. Still set up nicely to make the break higher as energy performs better than most sectors. Just going to be patient and look for a strong break higher. Tried the move Monday, testing the waters, then faded back. Volume was better, however, so looking for the next break higher.
Volume: 4.182M Avg Volume: 4.278M
BUY POINT: $53.24 Volume=550K Target=$61.38 Stop=$50.92
POSITION: BTU CK - Mar. $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/btu.html
Play Date: 11/15/2007
D (Dominion Resources--$46.54; +0.65; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/d.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Despite the decline in oil, D is hanging tough, showing a very tight doji that used the 10 day EMA (45.82) on the low as support. Volume has moved above average this week as it sits on top of the prior range. Looks ready to make the break. Looks very nice. To recap: Nice lateral move the past two weeks as D bangs up and down between 45 and 46. It is consolidating the late October spurt higher, resting right below the April and May high that mark the top of the base. Gapped lower to the 18 day EMA on the Thursday open then rebounded on rising volume to post a modest gain. Nice set up to move higher, and this stock is in the right sector for a market turning more defensive. Looking for a bounce and run into the split.
Volume: 3.239M Avg Volume: 3.4M
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=2M Target=$52.95 Stop=$45.11
POSITION: D DI - Apr. $45c (70 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/d.html
Play Date: 11/17/2007
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$56.39; +0.31; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the breakout, tapping at that level (55) on the intraday low and rebounding for a modest gain. Still in very good shape for the next run higher. To recap: Showing outstanding strength in the energy market. DRQ exploded higher to start November, propelled by some strong earnings. The move blasted it out of a 6 month base. It made a nice 10 point surge on the breakout run, and then spent the past two weeks testing that move during the market selling. It held near support at the 18 day EMA (57.27) the past week, holding the 18 day with a doji. Excellent action and looking for DRQ to hold this near support this week and then resume the breakout move once more. We are looking to buy into that move.
Volume: 490.695K Avg Volume: 546.733K
BUY POINT: $58.91 Volume=795K Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.94
POSITION: DRQ CK - Mar. $55c (63 delta, 163 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drq.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/26/2007
BA (Boeing--$91.73; +1.80; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ba.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Put. Bounced higher Tuesday on more average volume, testing the 18 day EMA once more and then slipping back to close below that level. Still in an ugly downtrend, and still looking to play BA on the move lower. Moved the buy point up to accommodate this bounce. To recap: BA double topped with twin peaks in July and October, then broke down to the 200 day SMA. It bounced but then failed, breaking below that level the second week in November. It dumped lower below the 10 day EMA (90.54), but then rebounded the past three sessions to test that run lower, gapping higher Monday and rallying to the 18 day EMA on the high. It failed and reversed to close lower than it opened. Looks like a big tombstone doji at near resistance, setting BA to continue the trend below the 10 day EMA after this higher test. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 7.092M Avg Volume: 6.623M
BUY POINT: $90.69 Volume=7.2M Target=$87.55 Stop=$91.62
POSITION: BA MR - Jan. $90p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ba.html
Play Date: 11/26/2007
HON (Honeywell--$54.05; +0.86; optionable): Aerospace/Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hon.html
EARNINGS: April 10-19-07
STATUS: Put. Recovered some from the hard Monday drop, rebounding in some relief. Still in an ugly selloff and after this bounce looking for HON to turn back down and continue the breakdown. To recap: HON made a lower high in early November and then broke lower mid-month and broke below the 200 day SMA (55.19). It tried to bounce through last Friday, but couldn't gain any traction. Monday it broke lower on a shot of above average volume, moving below the August and September lows. Lots of downside ahead and it looks ready to fill that gap higher way down near 49. A move to our initial target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 4.881M Avg Volume: 4.083M
BUY POINT: $53.78 Volume=4.2M Target=$50.04 Stop=$53.58
POSITION: HON MK - Jan. $55p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hon.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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