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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some excellent upside set ups give credence to the view that this is a pullback in a continuing holiday rally.
Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/03/2007
BHP (BHP Billiton--$75.20; -0.63; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-07
STATUS: Cup. Found support at the 90 day SMA at 71.50 during the November selling, using that market weakness to test, rest, and fill some gaps from mid-September when BHP was blasting out of a 10 week head and shoulders base. It has come back to fill the gaps and is forming a new 4 week base. It bounced off the 90 day last week and has paused to test the 50 day EMA (75.49) this week, showing a doji on low volume Monday. Looking for it to explode higher after this test and make a nice trade for us up to the prior high near 87.
Volume: 3.311M Avg Volume: 5.004M
BUY POINT: $76.45 Volume=6.5M Target=$86.95 Stop=$74.11
POSITION: BHP BO - Feb. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhp.html
Play Date: 12/03/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$104.03; -3.32; optionable): GPS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After forming a double top spanning late September to late October, GRMN sold hard after earnings and then in the early November market selling, coming back close to the 200 day SMA (now at 81). It recovered and rallied back, however, forming a 3 week reverse head and shoulders, breaking higher last Tuesday and Wednesday on strong trade. It has come back to test on low volume, tapping at the 50 day EMA (100.95) on Monday. Looking at this as a shakeout and test of the break from the pattern, and if we see stronger volume on the rebound we will look to enter the play to catch a run back up to those prior highs. Nice neat little trade has set up and if it shows us it wants to go higher, we will take advantage of it.
Volume: 3.551M Avg Volume: 6.185M
BUY POINT: $105.38 Volume=8.3M Target=$121.95 Stop=$102.65
POSITION: RZJ AA - Jan. $105c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 12/03/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$178.86; -3.36; optionable): iPods, iMacs, iPhones
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Looking to move in on Apple again as it comes back on this lower volume test of its run off the 50 day EMA (168.22) the pat two weeks. Kind of a short cup with handle, but not getting that far afield; it rallied well and is testing back toward the 10 day EMA (176.61) on lighter trade and we are looking to play the next run higher as volume jumps back up.
Volume: 34.038M Avg Volume: 39.948M
BUY POINT: $180.31 Volume=45M Target=$198.95 Stop=$176.55
POSITION: APV AP - Jan. $180c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
New Post-Split Play:
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 12/03/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$34.14; +0.54; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-29-07
STATUS: Test breakout. VIP broke higher from a 4 week cup base in late November, moving higher on strong volume. It peaked at 36 and then faded to test, tapping at the 18 day EMA (32.66) on the Thursday and Monday intraday lows then rebounding. After the Putin 60 & 60 election VIP seems to be ready to move back up. Even though Putin is KGB through and through and is totally untrustworthy as an 'ally,' as far as stocks are concerned there is again certainty even if it you have to adopt the 'better the devil you know' mentality. Looking for VIP to zip back up on some volume and give us a new buy point.
Volume: 3.067M Avg Volume: 3.364M
BUY POINT: $34.65 Volume=5M Target=$40.45 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: VIQ DF - Apr. $30c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/03/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$226.89; +0.25; optionable): Asset management, investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: 12-18-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice strong price and volume surge last Wednesday on the Kohn news, then basically moving laterally (on the closes) the past three sessions on lower volume as it forms the handle to its 5 week base. Another key stock that is setting up a mini- upside pattern in the market, and suggesting that there is another leg to this rally. We want to be ready to move in on Goldman as it makes the move because it is quite explosive and our target is somewhat conservative. Has shown excellent upside volume, and just looking for some more solid trade as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 6.801M Avg Volume: 12.094M
BUY POINT: $229.48 Volume=14M Target=$254.95 Stop=$223.85
POSITION: GPY AF - Jan. $230c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gs.html
New buy points on current position:
Play Date: 12/03/2007
GOOG (Google--$681.53; -11.47; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After making us a nice gain on its last bounce higher, GOOG is testing back on very, very low volume, selling toward the 10 day EMA (677.51) on Monday. It may complete the test back to that level and then bounce, but whether it does or not, we want to catch the bounce back up and ride it to the early November high. That will put a nice, tidy amount of change in our pocket once more.
Volume: 4.3M Avg Volume: 6.184M
BUY POINT: $684.88 Volume=8M Target=$739.00 Stop=$677.38
POSITION: GOQ AR - Jan. $690c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/goog.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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