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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 12/04/2007
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$58.68; +1.46; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-50-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (55.94). Strong volume Tuesday as APC broke higher after a pause Friday, moving off the 50 day on brisk trade. Nice double bottom action the past three weeks as APC tapped the 90 day SMA on the intraday lows and rebounded. Solid and looking to move in as APC continues the move higher.
Volume: 5.304M Avg Volume: 4.36M
BUY POINT: $59.22 Volume=6M Target=$66.95 Stop=$56.82
POSITION: APC BK - Feb. $55c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apc.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 12/04/2007
AG (Agco Corp.--$66.14; -0.08; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ag.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Breakout test. AG broke higher last week from a short 4 week cup base and is coming back to test that move, tapping at the 10 day EMA (64.33) on the intraday low and bouncing back to flat. Nice break higher, nice test, and looking for the bounce to continue with some more solid trade to step in.
Volume: 3.942M Avg Volume: 1.82M
BUY POINT: $66.76 Volume=2.7M Target=$76.95 Stop=$64.21
POSITION: AG BM - Feb. $65c (57 delta, 273 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ag.html
Play Date: 12/04/2007
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$670.25; +9.45; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Solid volume last week on the break off the 50 day EMA that formed the second leg to this 6 week base, and solid volume again Tuesday as CME surged higher but gave back a chunk of the session's move though it still held a hefty gain. Looking for continued solid trade as CME continues the break higher.
Volume: 941.551K Avg Volume: 636.446K
BUY POINT: $672.65 Volume=9M Target=$745.00 Stop=$660.00
POSITION: CWO AN - Jan. $670c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 12/04/2007
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$137.51; +4.58; optionable): Fast food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. As with many strong stocks, a short but very nice base has formed the past 5 weeks, holding the 50 day EMA as support on the lows as the stock forms the base. Held the 10 day EMA (131.45) on the low and bounced Tuesday on rising but still below average volume. Looks solid and ready to move in as CMG continues the break higher on stronger volume.
Volume: 587.7K Avg Volume: 601.24K
BUY POINT: $138.32 Volume=902K Target=$159.00 Stop=$131.32
POSITION: CMG CG - Mar. 135c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmg.html
Play Date: 12/04/2007
SPWR (SunPower Corp.--$128.17; +0.63; optionable): Solar power
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spwr.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice hold at the 50 day EMA two weeks back as SPWR bottomed on the second leg of its short double bottom base. It may try to move laterally some more here and form a handle; no issues with that as that gives it a better break higher. Looks nice in any event and on a move through the buy point we will look at moving into some positions.
Volume: 3.293M Avg Volume: 2.183M
BUY POINT: $130.38 Volume=2.8M Target=$149.95 Stop=$124.38
POSITION: QSU AW - Jan. $130c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spwr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still ready to bounce after this test of the 10 day EMA Looking for an announcement in January.
ATK: Looking for a February announcement.
ATW: Likely to announce in January. Testing that explosive move higher.
BUCY: Testing the move, fading to the 10 day EMA on Tuesday on low trade. Still in position to move higher.
COST: Forecast mid-December. Finally the break higher.
EOG: Anticipating an announcement in late January. Nice 50 day EMA test.
HRS: Looking to January for an announcement.
ISRG: Looking to pinpoint a date. Testing the nice break higher.
MA: Forecast late January
MICC: Tentatively forecast for mid-December. Testing back nicely on low volume, setting up the next move.
MON: Researching the date.
OTEX: Forecast early 2008. Trying to pinpoint the date.
RIG: Gapped lower after that big surge.
SID: Setting up a double bottom above the 90 day SMA.
STLD: Researching date. Getting some strong volume as it moves off the double bottom.
STT: Forecast mid-January
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCMENT PLAYS
New buy point:
Play Date: 12/04/2007
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$116.76; -0.56; optionable): Defense/aerospace
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-5-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice action the past week as ATK forms the handle to its short 5 week base that formed immediately after the early November break higher from a larger 3 month pattern. Super surge and expecting it to test a bit more and then make the next break to give us the entry.
Volume: 313.523K Avg Volume: 273.26K
BUY POINT: $118.05 Volume=410K Target=$132.89 Stop=$116.21
POSITION: ATK BC - Feb. $115c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/03/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$179.81; +0.95; optionable): iPods, iMacs, iPhones
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped lower but held the 10 day EMA on the low and bounced. No trade so likely to need a bit more time to finish the base, but like it a lot and just awaiting the next break higher on solid volume once more. To recap: Looking to move in on Apple again as it comes back on this lower volume test of its run off the 50 day EMA (168.22) the pat two weeks. Kind of a short cup with handle, but not getting that far afield; it rallied well and is testing back toward the 10 day EMA (176.61) on lighter trade and we are looking to play the next run higher as volume jumps back up.
Volume: 27.51M Avg Volume: 39.818M
BUY POINT: $180.31 Volume=45M Target=$198.95 Stop=$176.55
POSITION: APV AP - Jan. $180c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
Play Date: 12/01/2007
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$49.72; -0.66; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-16-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still testing, but still in solid shape to move as it tapped the 50 day SMA on the low and bounced to close on top of the 10 day EMA. Nice shakeout and looking for a return of volume to give us the buy. To recap: Most stocks showed their strong volume Wednesday, but what we like about STLD is that its traded showed up Thursday as it continued its move higher off the 50 day EMA (48.60), forming the second leg in its 5 week base. This base is setting STLD for the move to a new all-time high and is part of a base on base pattern, a short consolidation after a larger 6 month pattern. Pulled back Friday to test and will likely form something more of the handle here. When it breaks higher on strong trade that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.273M Avg Volume: 1.936M
BUY POINT: $51.57 Volume=2.9M Target=$61.95 Stop=$49.55
POSITION: RQL BJ - Feb. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/01/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$39.03; +0.33; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still good action, tapping lower intraday and then rebounding to positive. Ready to make the move. To recap: Strong breakout in early August from a 15 month base followed by a nice run up the 18 day EMA (now at 38.31), taking ANSS to a new all-time high. After that run it needed a rest and it came back to that important 50 day EMA (37.34) to test during the market selling, making two legs at that key level. Very typical test after a run up the 18 day EMA, and like how ANSS used the market selling to make the test, consolidate, and set up the next move higher. Now we just let it finish out the pattern and show us the break higher on rising trade. That is our entry point.
Volume: 635.398K Avg Volume: 742.381K
BUY POINT: $39.76 Volume=1.1M Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.84
POSITION: QUS DH - Apr. $40c (48 delta, 137 OI) or QUS AG - Jan. $35c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 11/28/2007
CHL (China Mobile--$90.95; +1.14; optionable): Chinese wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
EARNINGS: Third week of December
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Low volume as CHL works laterally the past four sessions, forming a handle to its short base that held the 50 day EMA on the lows. Just looking for the break higher on stronger trade to give us the buy point. To recap: CHL enjoyed a tremendous August to late October run, and when the market started to sell it had to test back. It gapped lower to start the month, but it held at the 50 day EMA (84.70) and worked laterally the past three weeks, forming something of a double bottom. Nice break higher Wednesday on strong, above average volume. Looking to move in as CHL continues higher and gives us the run toward the prior high. That move alone gives us a nice gain, just what you want in a bounce situation, i.e. not having to plough new ground if you can avoid it.
Volume: 2.035M Avg Volume: 3.372M
BUY POINT: $91.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$103.95 Stop=$87.55
POSITION: CHL CR - Mar. $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chl.html
Play Date: 11/17/2007
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$56.77; +0.27; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Ready to break higher with a second strong upside volume session in three. Looks as if this test is just about over. To recap: Showing outstanding strength in the energy market. DRQ exploded higher to start November, propelled by some strong earnings. The move blasted it out of a 6 month base. It made a nice 10 point surge on the breakout run, and then spent the past two weeks testing that move during the market selling. It held near support at the 18 day EMA (56.70) the past week, holding the 18 day with a doji. Excellent action and looking for DRQ to hold this near support this week and then resume the breakout move once more. We are looking to buy into that move.
Volume: 585.4K Avg Volume: 571.412K
BUY POINT: New: $57.48 (orig. $58.91) Volume=795K Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.94
POSITION: DRQ CK - Mar. $55c (63 delta, 163 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drq.html
Play Date: 12/03/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$34.49; +0.35; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-29-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice move off the 10 day EMA (32.85) but no volume yet. Still solid, still ready to move in as VIP makes the next break higher to that new all-time high. To recap: VIP broke higher from a 4 week cup base in late November, moving higher on strong volume. It peaked at 36 and then faded to test, tapping at the 18 day EMA (32.66) on the Thursday and Monday intraday lows then rebounding. After the Putin 60 & 60 election VIP seems to be ready to move back up. Even though Putin is KGB through and through and is totally untrustworthy as an 'ally,' as far as stocks are concerned there is again certainty even if it you have to adopt the 'better the devil you know' mentality. Looking for VIP to zip back up on some volume and give us a new buy point.
Volume: 2.731M Avg Volume: 3.271M
BUY POINT: $34.65 Volume=5M Target=$40.45 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: VIQ DF - Apr. $30c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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