|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 12/11/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$29.95; -1.10; optionable): Correctional facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: Early February 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Sold back with the market Tuesday on very low, below average volume, landing at the 18 day EMA on the close. This month it has worked on a handle to its 6 month base, and this low volume selling Tuesday, even though it was rather steep, acts as a good shakeout to get rid of the last weak holders. This stock is the kind that performs well when the economy is not that great; have to put all of the new thieves and robbers somewhere, right? Yes, poor taste is in for the day; just look at the Fed. Just going to stake it out and let it show us the jail break higher. Then we move in to lock in a gain.
Volume: 490.6K Avg Volume: 797.722K
BUY POINT: $31.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$35.95 Stop=$29.69
POSITION: CXW CF - Mar. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cxw.html
Play Date: 12/11/2007
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$11.75; +0.06; optionable): Medical labs and research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
EARNINGS: Early February 2008
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. It has been a long time since we have played ERES. It bottomed in late 2006 and posted a nice run on into October. Now it has formed the current 10 week base, taking a breather and consolidating the prior move, setting up the next breakout and run higher. Nice low volume test this week, fading back to the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday close. Waiting for the break higher from here on a new shot of strong volume as seen early this month.
Volume: 337.965K Avg Volume: 413.295K
BUY POINT: $12.24 Volume=620K Target=$14.94 Stop=$11.57
POSITION: UDB CB - Mar. $10c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 12/11/2007
VARI (Varian--$70.09; +1.19; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged Tuesday, but it was not on VARI selling off. It tapped the 50 day SMA, the support in the right shoulder of its base, and bounced for a nice gain; some accumulation ongoing here. Nicely formed 6 week base formed using the 50 day EMA as support. Strong money flow is leading the way to a new high, and it looks as if VARI is a cinch to follow it higher.
Volume: 438.215K Avg Volume: 240.282K
BUY POINT: $71.24 Volume=350K Target=$81.95 Stop=$68.92
POSITION: IUA BN - Feb. $70c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vari.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/11/2007
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF--$76.33; -2.78; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to resistance in the second leg of the holiday rally and then was flipped hard Tuesday on rising, above average volume. Looking to play it on a move down to the prior lows near 73. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 120.369M Avg Volume: 87.118M
BUY POINT: $76.21 Volume=90M Target=$73.15 Stop=$76.95
POSITION: IOW MY - Jan. $77p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iwm.html
Play Date: 12/11/2007
SPY (S&P ETF--$147.91; -4.17; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. After moving to resistance on the second leg of the holiday rally SPY rolled over and is playing dead after the Fed rate cut disappointment. Higher, above average volume as it pushed through the 200 day SMA (148.62), breaking support again. Looking for a move toward the prior lows. Indeed our initial target is above the November low and will produce a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 250.346M Avg Volume: 193.486M
BUY POINT: $147.71 Volume=200M Target=$143.65 Stop=$148.88
POSITION: SFB MR - Jan. $148p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spy.html
Play Date: 12/11/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$28.59; -1.47; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
STATUS: Put. After collapsing below the 200 day SMA to start November and dumping down to 26, TIE recovered in the holiday rally, but after two taps at the 50 day EMA (29.92) this month it looks ready to re-engage to the downside. Broke below the 10 and 18 day EMA again on Tuesday, and it looks as if TIE is going to resume its downtrend below those levels. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 2.081M Avg Volume: 2.363M
BUY POINT: $28.48 Volume=2.5M Target=$26.45 Stop=$28.92
POSITION: TIE MF - Jan. $30p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Looking for an announcement in January.
AMX: Potential in late January
ATK: Looking for a February announcement.
ATW: Likely to announce in January.
BUCY: Slammed back Tuesday as some leaders were sold off. Managed to hold near the 10 day EMA.
COST: Forecast mid-December
EOG: Anticipating an announcement in late January
HRS: Looking to January for an announcement.
ISRG: Looking to pinpoint a date.
LFC: Researching date
MA: Forecast late January
MICC: Tentatively forecast for mid-December.
MON: Researching the date.
OII: Early February
OTEX: Forecast early 2008
RIG: On the rebound after that gap lower.
SGR: Forecast late January.
SID: Doji Friday after the surge. May be time to test some.
STLD: Researching date
STT: Forecast mid-January
UPL: Forecast late January
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/11/2007
IRM (Iron Mountain--$37.05; -0.04; optionable): Document storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice, orderly 5 week base has formed using near support at the 18 day EMA (36.35) as the bottom of the pattern. Ice run following the breakout from a long base in September. IRM forms these small bases and then breaks higher for nice 6 to 8 point runs. Excellent action the past week, fading back to form a handle or shakeout on low volume, holding the 10 day EMA Tuesday. Looks ready to make the breakout despite the market.
Volume: 697.462K Avg Volume: 660.38K
BUY POINT: $37.95 Volume=991K Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.22
POSITION: IRM DG - Apr. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/06/2007
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$68.19; -0.80; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make the break higher Tuesday on stronger, above average volume but with the FOMC move it came back to test, losing some ground. Still in its very solid pattern formed using the 50 day EMA (65.42) as support. Like how it is doing its own thing in the market, and looking for it to make the break higher.
Volume: 1.263M Avg Volume: 1.148M
BUY POINT: $68.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.11
POSITION: UPL CM - Mar. $65c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/08/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$59.57; -1.16; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-7-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Tested back Tuesday but held the 18 day EMA on the low on very low, below average volume. Nice shakeout and still in the pattern, still in position to make the break higher. Like how it held up post-Fed. Nice. To recap: This is a common accumulation pattern for many stocks over the past month in the up and down market. CTRP is a leader that is steadily moving higher up the 50 day EMA (55.23), but it is a volatile move as Chinese growth stocks tend to be. It has set up this pattern the past month, using the 50 day EMA on the low as the support in the 'head'. Great volume Wednesday though it was volatile with a gap lower and recovery into the close. Even with that the pattern looks promising, and on an high volume breakout move we are moving in and riding this one as it has made us great money on this run.
Volume: 530.389K Avg Volume: 863.702K
BUY POINT: $62.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$59.77
POSITION: QCT CM - Mar. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/10/2007
CF (CF Industries--$90.77; -4.99; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Sold back after the Fed but held the 18 day EMA on the lose on low volume. That keeps the low volume handle formation in progress. Looking for this puppy to hold here and make a new break higher. To recap: Very nice action the past five weeks as CF used the November selling to test back to its 50 day EMA (83.68) and consolidate the September to October run following its last breakout. It bounced off the 50 day and formed the right side of the base to end November. Moved more or less laterally last week, then reached down to the 10 day EMA (92.66) on the Monday low and rebounded for a gain. Looks to have just about finished the handle shakeout and looking for a bounce on rising volume to give us the entry point. Another stock that has set up coincident with the FOMC decision, and that may provide the catalyst for the breakout. A top rated stock in terms of earnings growth rates.
Volume: 1.778M Avg Volume: 2.077M
BUY POINT: New: $92.48 (orig. $97.38) Volume=3M Target=$111.98 Stop=$92.55
POSITION: CF BS - Feb. $95c (56 delta, 248 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cf.html
Play Date: 12/10/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$43.00; -2.02; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-20-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Sold back but on very low volume, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low and closing at the 10 day EMA after a modest rebound. Still in the pattern and this is just a further shakeout in the handle. China-based so we are still liking this quite a bit. To recap: A volatile but consistent market leader, CMED has made us a lot of money over the past six months. It is setting up to break higher once, more, forming a 6 week double bottom with handle, working on the handle right now with a low volume, lateral move the past two sessions, testing lower then rebounding to close flat. That is the shaking out of the sellers as they give up as the stock appears to stall just below the prior highs. Getting close, and we are just going to be ready to move in as CMED makes its breakout move.
Volume: 390.275K Avg Volume: 737.595K
BUY POINT: New: Aggressive $43.89 (orig. $45.68) Volume=1M Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.94
POSITION: QCY CI - Mar. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmed.html
Play Date: 12/08/2007
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$37.46; -1.54; optionable): Chinese online gaming
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-28-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Another China stock that tested back as well, holding above near support and on continued below average volume. Still in the pattern and still looking for the breakout move. To recap: Yep, another one of these accumulation patterns; when the market is up and down these tend to form. SNDA was not immune to the selling in November, falling hard ahead of its earnings report. That set up a big move higher, however, as earnings proved to be very strong. Big surge and then a fade to test, holding the 50 day EMA (35.84) on the low and then bouncing off that support starting Wednesday. Volume improved but it was not strong enough yet. Looking for that to improve as SNDA shows the breakout. May not be until the Fed speaks, but we can afford to wait.
Volume: 1.26M Avg Volume: 1.879M
BUY POINT: $39.11 Volume=2.2M Target=$49.95 Stop=$36.89
POSITION: QKU CH - Mar. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snda.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
