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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Way too many good patterns to ignore. All of these stocks are at the top of the market in terms of earnings growth rates.
Play Date: 12/15/2007
FMCN (Focus Media Holding--$57.80; +1.30; optionable): Chinese advertising
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmcn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FMCN is working laterally along the 50 day EMA (55.10) the past week, setting up for a run at the trendline spanning the early October peak and the mid-November peak. Showing some strong upside volume spikes last week, and looking for another one to send it higher and give us the buy. Big gap higher in late September out of a 3 month cup with handle and during the November selling it was a target. It filled the gap, however, and started back up. Now that it has this test behind it and the upside volume kicking in, we are looking for a further break higher to move in.
Volume: 3.899M Avg Volume: 3.585M
BUY POINT: $58.65 Volume=5M Target=$69.95 Stop=$54.94
POSITION: QOH DK - Apr. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fmcn.html
Play Date: 12/15/2007
GME (Gamestop--$58.21; +0.66; optionable): Electronic game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-20-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GME gave us some great gains this year on a couple of prior runs. After it peaked in September we have patiently waited for it to consolidate and set up again. It dipped in the November selling, but formed a double bottom at the 90 day SMA and shot higher to start December. It has come back to test that move last week, holding at the 50 day SMA on Thursday and Friday. Good upside volume as it held and posted a gain Friday. Looking for continued solid trade as it resumes the move higher into the Christmas season.
Volume: 3.551M Avg Volume: 3.108M
BUY POINT: $59.32 Volume=4M Target=$70.95 Stop=$56.77
POSITION: GME DL - Apr. $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 12/15/2007
HOLX (Hologic--$65.20; +0.66; optionable): Medical appliances (Mammogram machines)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
EARNINGS: 1-30-08
STATUS: Flat/Pennant. HOLX is moving laterally along the 50 day EMA (63.46) the past 5 weeks, trading in a narrowing range above that key level. It gapped lower in early November after a strong September to October run, but it caught itself and this leader is setting up for the next move higher. Going to be patient, let it finish its lateral move, and then step in as it shows us the next break higher on strong volume and heads toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.981M Avg Volume: 2.888M
BUY POINT: $66.04 Volume=3.6M Target=$75.95 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: QHX CM - Mar. $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/holx.html
Play Date: 12/15/2007
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$324.89; -3.71; optionable): da Vinci surgical systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Test breakout. ISRG made is some great money in November in its run off the 50 day EMA that month. It broke out from a 6 week cup with handle base just over a week back, then got caught in the post-FOMC selling. It used that selling to its advantage, however, testing back to the 18 day EMA (323) on low volume, showing a pair of dojis at that level to end last week. Looking for this strong leader to surge back up off of this test, give us another buy point, and give us another strong gain.
Volume: 870.6K Avg Volume: 1.349M
BUY POINT: $330.45 Volume=1.8M Target=$385.00 Stop=$320.89
POSITION: AXV DC - Apr. $330c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isrg.html
Play Date: 12/15/2007
LIFC (Lifecell--$44.77; -1.61; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Breakout test. This is another stock that made us some money earlier this year. It consolidated that run with a 6 week base spanning late October to early December. It blasted higher two weeks back and rallied to 48. It used the Fed-selling to test the move, coming back on lower, below average volume. It found support Thursday and Friday at the 10 day EMA (44.71) and the late October high that marks the high in the base. A leader that will be in the hunt for a new high after this test of its last breakout. Strong.
Volume: 475.932K Avg Volume: 614.245K
BUY POINT: $45.48 Volume=750K Target=$53.45 Stop=$44.57
POSITION: QKL CI - Mar. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lifc.html
Play Date: 12/15/2007
SID (Companhia Siderurgical Nacional--$81.06; -3.64; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sid.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February 2008
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong run in 2007, but it does not look as if it is over moving into 2008. After a good run into late October, SID formed the current 7 week double bottom with handle pattern, breaking out in early December. It rallied into Tuesday, and then of course was sold back after the Fed's decision. As with other strong leaders, it used the market selling constructively, testing back in an orderly manner, holding the October high and the 18 day EMA (80.19) that are coincident. Like the action as it tests this level as it tapped it Thursday and bounced, then showed a nice tight doji with tail over that level Friday. Just going to let it show us the bounce higher and that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.286M Avg Volume: 1.114M
BUY POINT: $82.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$98.88 Stop=$79.08
POSITION: SID CP - Mar. $80c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sid.html
Play Date: 12/15/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$56.02; +0.42; optionable): Chinese internet advertising, search, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Late January 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SOHU shook us out last week when it dipped lower through the 18 day EMA on Tuesday. It then recovered and worked laterally at the 18 day EMA (55.31) to close out the week. Great recovery that basically turned a pig's ear into a potential silk purse, i.e. working to form a handle to what has shaped up as a 6 week base that used the 50 day EMA on the lows as support and now the 18 day EMA for the handle. Looking to move in as SOHU breaks higher on strong volume. It made us some great money the two prior plays before the last, so we are looking to return to the strong green with SOHU.
Volume: 790.307K Avg Volume: 1.745M
BUY POINT: $56.78 Volume=2.6M Target=$69.95 Stop=$54.22
POSITION: UZK CK - Mar. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sohu.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/10/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$42.37; -0.31; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-20-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tested back to the 50 day EMA (41.26) to end the week, moving on low volume as it continues the shakeout in its handle. Patiently waiting for the break back to the upside on strong trade. To recap: A volatile but consistent market leader, CMED has made us a lot of money over the past six months. It is setting up to break higher once, more, forming a 6 week double bottom with handle, working on the handle right now with a low volume, lateral move the past two sessions, testing lower then rebounding to close flat. That is the shaking out of the sellers as they give up as the stock appears to stall just below the prior highs. Getting close, and we are just going to be ready to move in as CMED makes its breakout move.
Volume: 211.979K Avg Volume: 738.354K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 43.95; Breakout: $45.68 Volume=1M Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.94
POSITION: QCY CI - Mar. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmed.html
Play Date: 12/12/2007
HUM (Humana--$75.50; -1.29; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hum.html
EARNINGS: 2-4-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the nice handle to its base, testing the 18 day EMA on the Friday close. Solid action and waiting for the breakout move to enter. To recap: A nice pattern has formed the past 7 weeks as HUM sets up for the next breakout to a new all-time high. Just about right on all fronts with the pattern: used the 50 day EMA as the bottom of the cup, volume swelled to average or better as it moved up in late November to form the right side of the base and then faded this month as HUM tested and formed the handle, the shakeout to get rid of the last undecided holders. Volume jumped up above average Wednesday as HUM posted a gain, closing just over the 10 day EMA (75.93) and showing a tight doji on the candlestick chart. That can indicate the pullback is over, and looking for more volume as it makes the break higher. Doesn't hurt that it is in the healthcare sector in this market.
Volume: 1.728M Avg Volume: 1.613M
BUY POINT: $77.88 Volume=2.4M Target=$88.95 Stop=$75.15
POSITION: HUM BO - Feb. $75c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hum.html
Play Date: 12/13/2007
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$46.75; +0.06; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Sold back Tuesday and Wednesday after the FOMC actions, but held the 10 day EMA (45.52) on the lows and started to bounce Thursday and Friday. Not much volume yet, but looking for more to come in as it makes the breakout move. Very nice pattern that ignored the selling, instead using it for its advantage. To recap: Excellent volume Monday as NDAQ started to surge higher, but it could not hold the move in the FOMC aftermath, selling back to the 10 day EMA on lower volume. It held that level Thursday and started to bounce, but no volume. Looking for volume to rally as NDAQ continues this move higher toward a new all-time high. Very nice.
Volume: 1.558M Avg Volume: 2.914M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=4M Target=$55.00 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: NQD CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ndaq.html
Play Date: 12/10/2007
NUVA (Nuvasive--$41.60; -0.51; optionable): Products for surgical treatment of spinal disorders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuva.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still in the nice pattern, holding the 18 day EMA (41.74) to end the week, ignoring the selling and continuing its excellent pattern. Now we just wait to send it higher and give us the buy. To recap: After a surge higher in late October NUVA needed a breather and used the market selling in November to form this neat 6 week base. Used the key support at the 50 day EMA (39.91) as the bottom of the base, showing the big money is still buying the stock. Strong volume Monday, the best in two weeks, as it bounced off the 10 day EMA (41.95). Faded back to the 18 day EMA in the uncertainty of Tuesday and Wednesday, but has held the pattern beautifully and looks ready to make the next break higher.
Volume: 231.865K Avg Volume: 430.817K
BUY POINT: $43.78 Volume=642K Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.57
POSITION: QNU CH - Mar. $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nuva.html
Play Date: 12/11/2007
ONXX (Onyx Pharmaceuticals--$56.36; +1.30; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/onxx.html
EARNINGS: Early February 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Ignored the selling that plagued the market last week, using it to test the 18 day EMA (55.26) once more as it continues forming the handle to its short base. Even tried to break higher Friday. Just waiting for the move. To recap: Sold back Tuesday with the market, but on very low, below average volume as ONXX came to rest on the 10 day EMA at the close. Short but nice 5 week base has set up using the 18 day EMA as support. Basically ignoring the market's problems, just what you want to see. Just going to be patient and wait for the break higher on rising trade to show us it is ready to buy.
Volume: 874.077K Avg Volume: 1.288M
BUY POINT: $57.88 Volume=1.9M Target=$69.45 Stop=$55.45
POSITION: OIQ BK - Feb. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/onxx.html
Play Date: 12/13/2007
SLT (Sterlite Industries--$26.37; +0.03; optionable): Copper production in India
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slt.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Dropped to test the 18 day EMA (25.94) Thursday and Friday, but held that level and the November highs that mark the top of its short base on continued below average volume. It is set up to continue the breakout, and just needs a bit better tape to make the next break higher. To recap: A new issue in June 2007, SLT just finished breakout of its second base, gapping higher in late November and rallying to 29. The past week it is testing, coming back to tap at the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounding to recoup half its losses and hold key support at the 18 day EMA as well as the tops of the prior pattern at 26. Looking for SLT to hold here and make the next move higher. That is when we move in.
Volume: 1.04M Avg Volume: 2.268M
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=2.4M Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.45
POSITION: SLT CE - Mar. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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