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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Market is getting oversold and looking to play a bounce after some more downside on Tuesday.
Play Date: 12/17/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$180.32; -5.41; optionable): Energy futures exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ICE stumbled through the market selling but held at the 50 day EMA and set up 7 week trading range, breaking higher last week on solid, above average volume. This range formed after the October breakout from a 14 week double bottom of sorts. Nice consolidation and you have to like the way ICE held up during the most recent selling, breaking higher from its base. Now Monday it did sell back but volume was low as it tests the break higher. Looking for it to hold in this vicinity and then rebound. As it does we will look to move in.
Volume: 1.266M Avg Volume: 2.025M
BUY POINT: $181.11 Volume=2.2M Target=$206.95 Stop=$178.24
POSITION: IHH CQ - Mar. $185c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ice.html
Play Date: 12/17/2007
MOS (Mosaic Company--$84.49; +1.68; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: 1-9-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Big run in this year, but a nice rest in November during the market selling. It came back to test the 50 day EMA (now at 68) after a late August breakout and run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It surged back up to end November and start December. During the market selling of the past week it has worked laterally, refusing to give up ground as it waits for the 10 day EMA (80.19) to rise to meet it. Nice solid above average volume Monday as MOS moved higher toward the top of its range. Looking to move in as it makes the break higher from this nice show of strength. Top stock in a top sector.
Volume: 4.37M Avg Volume: 3.661M
BUY POINT: $85.48 Volume=5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$81.65
POSITION: MOS CQ - Mar. $85c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
Play Date: 12/17/2007
YGE (Yingli Green Energy--$33.21; -2.74; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yge.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February 2008
STATUS: Test breakout. A new issue in June 2007, YGE just formed its second base. It broke out of its first in mid-September and rallied to 39. It then fell into the current 8 week pattern in the November selling, using that to consolidate and set up once more. It broke higher to end last week, surging Friday on strong volume. In the Monday selling it faded back on much lower volume though still above average. Just going to let it test back and then make the next break higher on solid trade. That is when we move in. A top stock in its earnings growth rates.
Volume: 3.471M Avg Volume: 2.9M
BUY POINT: $33.72 Volume=4.3M Target=$40.75 Stop=$31.57
POSITION: YGE CF - Mar. $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/yge.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 12/17/2007
ESLR (Evergreen Solar--$15.02; -1.59; optionable): Solar
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eslr.html
EARNINGS: Third week January 2008
STATUS: Test breakout. After a big gap higher Friday when we banked some gain, ESLR was testing back down Monday, tapping at the 10 day EMA (14.61) on the low. Volume was still above average but well off the strong Friday pace. Got caught in the market selling and we are looking to use this test back as an opportunity to get into some more of the stock and options as it rebounds back up.
Volume: 7.224M Avg Volume: 4.1M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=7.4M Target=$18.65 Stop=$14.44
POSITION: QLU CC - Mar. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eslr.html
Play Date: 12/17/2007
MA (MasterCard--$204.93; -11.63; optionable): Consumer credit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Late January 2008
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. MA is making its second test of the 18 day EMA (203.75) after its late October breakout where it gapped higher from a 4.5 month cup with handle base on a strong earnings report. It was a big winner in the last two rallies so it was a target in the recent selling. We are watching it, and if it can hold at the 18 day EMA we are looking to pick it up as it continues its run higher in the breakout. A strong stock such as MA will make 4 to 5 runs up the 10 or 18 day EMA after a breakout, and though it has run far, that still leaves a lot of upside ahead for the stock if it can hold up and show us a further move on stronger volume.
Volume: 3.949M Avg Volume: 3.831M
BUY POINT: $207.33 Volume=4.8M Target=$239.95 Stop=$201.88
POSITION: MAL DT - Apr. $200c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 12/17/2007
MON (Monsanto--$101.19; -3.31; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 1-3-08
STATUS: Test breakout. MON is another strong stock that has come back to the 18 day EMA (101) in a test of a solid late November through early December run. It rallied out of a base starting in September, then moved later4ally for 5 weeks, testing the 50 day EMA (95) as it did). That set the stage for the next move. It is testing, and if it can hold here and deliver an upside move on strong volume it is a new buy.
Volume: 3.312M Avg Volume: 4.915M
BUY POINT: $103.44 Volume=6M Target=$119.95 Stop=$100.22
POSITION: MON DC - Apr. $100c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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