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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/19/2007
CF (CF Industries--$97.75; +1.52; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another run at CF as it continues to work laterally over the 10 and 18 day EMA (93.39), forming a more elongated handle to its 6 week base. It broke higher to start December then came back to the 18 day EMA. Shook is out of our prior position but has held up, and we are looking to move back into this leader as it continues the break higher. Solid as it used the 50 day EMA as support for the base, showing the big investors are hanging with it and its global story.
Volume: 1.552M Avg Volume: 2.193M
BUY POINT: $99.22 Volume=3M Target=$118.95 Stop=$93.22
POSITION: CF BB - Feb. $100c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cf.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$693.50; +1.50; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent low volume test of the 10 and 18 day EMA the past week as the trading range narrows and CME readies for the next run in the breakout form its 6 week base formed in October and November. Excellent relative strength and ready to move in when it breaks higher. Options on a $700 stock are a bit pricey, but the returns as seen with GOOG, BIDU and the like can be downright staggering.
Volume: 407.465K Avg Volume: 644.212K
BUY POINT: $700.88 Volume=966K Target=$774.75 Stop=$688.00
POSITION: CWO CT - Mar. 700c 48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cme.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
ININ (Interactive Intelligence--$26.10; +0.86; optionable): Software for contact centers and VOIP applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inin.html
EARNINGS: 1-29-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Made us some good money in its last run and now we are looking to pick off ININ as it comes off the 50 day EMA (24.84). It started to do that Wednesday on solid, slightly above average volume. It gave up its early December breakout from a 4 week base, but it has held key support, has solid money flow, and looks to head up to a new 7 year high.
Volume: 254.207K Avg Volume: 217.685K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=300K Target=$31.75 Stop=$24.77
POSITION: NQX CE - Mar. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/inin.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
RESP (Respironics--$52.46; +0.71; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice break higher on volume to start the second week of December, clearing an 8 week base that formed using the 50 and 90 day SMA as support. The move took RESP to a new high, and when it got there it slid laterally the past week, holding its ground as the 10 day EMA (51.58) rose to meet it. It got there on Wednesday and RESP jumped higher to a new closing high. Looking to move in as RESP continues the move on some good volume.
Volume: 469.82K Avg Volume: 440.654K
BUY POINT: $52.92 Volume=650K Target=$60.95 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: RBQ DJ - Apr. $50c (64 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/resp.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
TECH (Techne--$67.07; -0.18; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
EARNINGS: 1-29-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. TECH broke to a new 7 year high to start December, jumping out of a 12 week base on strong volume and rallying to 71. It faded the past week in the market selling, but on Tuesday tapped at the 50 day EMA (65.54) on the low and rebounded. Nice doji Wednesday at the 18 day EMA as TECH pauses and readies for the next move higher.
Volume: 102.475K Avg Volume: 167.465K
BUY POINT: $68.11 Volume=250K Target=$78.48 Stop=$66.22
POSITION: TGQ DM - Apr. $65c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tech.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/19/2007
DIA (DJ30 ETF--$132.27; -0.28; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. DIA is at a critical point here as it bumps against the 200 day SMA (133.12) on below average volume, trying to get back above that key support level after gapping below it Monday. Bearish overall head and shoulders top spanning the past 6 months, and this weakness at the 200 day is another sign of a struggling stock. If it breaks lower we are ready to step in. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain and it could fall on down to 128 or so if it really gets lathered up.
Volume: 14.343M Avg Volume: 14.697M
BUY POINT: $131.98 Volume=15M Target=$128.91 Stop=$133.15
POSITION: DAW MB - Jan. $132p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dia.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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