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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/19/2007
CF (CF Industries--$97.75; +1.52; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Last week of January 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another run at CF as it continues to work laterally over the 10 and 18 day EMA (93.39), forming a more elongated handle to its 6 week base. It broke higher to start December then came back to the 18 day EMA. Shook is out of our prior position but has held up, and we are looking to move back into this leader as it continues the break higher. Solid as it used the 50 day EMA as support for the base, showing the big investors are hanging with it and its global story.
Volume: 1.552M Avg Volume: 2.193M
BUY POINT: $99.22 Volume=3M Target=$118.95 Stop=$93.22
POSITION: CF BB - Feb. $100c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cf.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$693.50; +1.50; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent low volume test of the 10 and 18 day EMA the past week as the trading range narrows and CME readies for the next run in the breakout form its 6 week base formed in October and November. Excellent relative strength and ready to move in when it breaks higher. Options on a $700 stock are a bit pricey, but the returns as seen with GOOG, BIDU and the like can be downright staggering.
Volume: 407.465K Avg Volume: 644.212K
BUY POINT: $700.88 Volume=966K Target=$774.75 Stop=$688.00
POSITION: CWO CT - Mar. 700c 48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cme.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
ININ (Interactive Intelligence--$26.10; +0.86; optionable): Software for contact centers and VOIP applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inin.html
EARNINGS: 1-29-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Made us some good money in its last run and now we are looking to pick off ININ as it comes off the 50 day EMA (24.84). It started to do that Wednesday on solid, slightly above average volume. It gave up its early December breakout from a 4 week base, but it has held key support, has solid money flow, and looks to head up to a new 7 year high.
Volume: 254.207K Avg Volume: 217.685K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=300K Target=$31.75 Stop=$24.77
POSITION: NQX CE - Mar. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/inin.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
SII (Smith International--$70.27; +2.09; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sii.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume and a solid price move Wednesday as SII makes the break from its 10 week base as it starts the trek for another new all-time high. Sweet pattern and this one looks to be a real runner and is ready to move again.
Volume: 3.356M Avg Volume: 2.535M
BUY POINT: $70.65 Volume=2.8M Target=$81.45 Stop=$67.48
POSITION: SID CN - Mar. $70c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sii.html
Play Date: 12/19/2007
TECH (Techne--$67.07; -0.18; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
EARNINGS: 1-29-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. TECH broke to a new 7 year high to start December, jumping out of a 12 week base on strong volume and rallying to 71. It faded the past week in the market selling, but on Tuesday tapped at the 50 day EMA (65.54) on the low and rebounded. Nice doji Wednesday at the 18 day EMA as TECH pauses and readies for the next move higher.
Volume: 102.475K Avg Volume: 167.465K
BUY POINT: $68.11 Volume=250K Target=$78.48 Stop=$66.22
POSITION: TGQ DM - Apr. $65c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tech.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/19/2007
DIA (DJ30 ETF--$132.27; -0.28; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. DIA is at a critical point here as it bumps against the 200 day SMA (133.12) on below average volume, trying to get back above that key support level after gapping below it Monday. Bearish overall head and shoulders top spanning the past 6 months, and this weakness at the 200 day is another sign of a struggling stock. If it breaks lower we are ready to step in. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain and it could fall on down to 128 or so if it really gets lathered up.
Volume: 14.343M Avg Volume: 14.697M
BUY POINT: $131.98 Volume=15M Target=$128.91 Stop=$133.15
POSITION: DAW MB - Jan. $132p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/18/2007
APA (Apache--$103.49; +0.59; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low, showing a low volume doji at that level. Still set to make the move though somewhat surprised it did not do so Wednesday as many energy stocks took off. Will see if it joins the next wave. To recap: Used the market selling and turbulence to set up the current 7 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (97.73) as support. Nice volume last week as it moved higher to finish the right leg, and then very low, below average trade this week as it forms the handle, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (101). Very nice base has set up to send it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 2.283M Avg Volume: 3.503M
BUY POINT: $104.55 Volume=5.3M Target=$120.45 Stop=$100.91
POSITION: APA DA - Apr. $105c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apa.html
Play Date: 12/18/2007
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$39.63; -0.51; optionable): Coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Took a breather Wednesday on lower, below average volume as GMCR takes a rest from that strong Tuesday move in price and volume. Still ready to move in on the next move higher from here. To recap: Volume jumped Tuesday as GMCR made the break from its nicely formed 10 week base. Textbook action from this stock you would not suspect to be such a growth monger. Looking to move in as it continues to percolate higher.
Volume: 236.137K Avg Volume: 269.286K
BUY POINT: $40.54 Volume=300K Target=$48.88 Stop=$37.88
POSITION: QGM CH - Mar. $40c (52 delta, 115 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gmcr.html
Play Date: 12/17/2007
MOS (Mosaic Company--$82.31; -0.84; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: 1-9-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (81.02). Got a bit volatile Tuesday with a tap down at the 18 day EMA, but it bounced right back up. Wednesday it tested the 10 day on very low volume, slowing things down a bit. Still in the pattern, still looking for the break higher from this leader. To recap: Big run in this year, but a nice rest in November during the market selling. It came back to test the 50 day EMA (now at 68) after a late August breakout and run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It surged back up to end November and start December. During the market selling of the past week it has worked laterally, refusing to give up ground as it waits for the 10 day EMA to rise to meet it. Nice solid above average volume Monday as MOS moved higher toward the top of its range. Looking to move in as it makes the break higher from this nice show of strength. Top stock in a top sector.
Volume: 2.066M Avg Volume: 3.699M
BUY POINT: $85.48 Volume=5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$81.65
POSITION: MOS CQ - Mar. $85c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
Play Date: 12/13/2007
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$46.50; +0.91; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume continues as NDAQ works laterally over the 10 day EMA (45.87), still working on that handle, still ready to make the break higher. Being patient and letting it show us the break higher. To recap: Excellent volume Monday as NDAQ started to surge higher, but it could not hold the move in the FOMC aftermath, selling back to the 10 day EMA on lower volume. It held that level Thursday and started to bounce, but no volume. Looking for volume to rally as NDAQ continues this move higher toward a new all-time high. Very nice.
Volume: 1.562M Avg Volume: 2.934M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=4M Target=$55.00 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: NQD CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ndaq.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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