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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/20/2007
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$158.58; +3.97; optionable): Heavy construction. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Test breakout. FWLT broke higher to start December, clearing a 6 week trading range. Nice rally through the first week of the month, then the selling came back in. It used the downside to tap at the 50 day SMA on the Tuesday low and then rebounded. Thursday FWLT gapped higher and it looks to be starting the next run after this first test of its new breakout.
Volume: 1.279M Avg Volume: 1.664M
BUY POINT: $159.75 Volume=1.6M Target=$179.95 Stop=$153.77
POSITION: UFG BL - Feb. $160c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fwlt.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/20/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$86.63; +3.00; optionable): Farm and construction machinery (do you have your Gator?)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: Third week of February
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Part of the farm play, DE makes the machines to till, etc. It broke higher near the end of November, clearing a 6 week range and rallying to 91. It has come back during the market selling to test that move, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (84.82). Volume was up back above average Thursday as it bounced up off that test. Looking to move in as DE continues higher on this first test of its new breakout.
Volume: 4.971M Avg Volume: 5.124M
BUY POINT: $86.94 Volume=6M Target=$99.95 Stop=$84.68
POSITION: DE CQ - Mar. $85c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Play Date: 12/20/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$35.17; +0.72; optionable): Graphics cards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Great runner for us in 2007, its last run taking it from mid-August to mid-October and covering 9 points. Not bad for $30 stock. It needed a break and it has consolidated and formed a nice 9 week base. It rallied higher through the first week of December and has since moved laterally, using the market selling to form its handle at the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA. Like how it did not really selling during the last sell off, instead moving laterally; no one wanted to sell it. Thursday it gapped higher though volume lagged. It is a large cap tech, and it has set up to break higher and take the torch if technology is going to lead for awhile once more. Just want to see a bit more volume as it makes the move. Nice.
Volume: 6.998M Avg Volume: 12.176M
BUY POINT: $35.57 Volume=14M Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: UVA CG - Mar. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
Play Date: 12/20/2007
SRCL (Stericycle--$60.05; +1.97; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Excellent volume Thursday as SRCL started toward the breakout from its 11 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (57) as support on its three tests lower, making a higher low each time. The top of the base is at 60, and we are looking for continued upside on decent volume to move in on this breakout.
Volume: 757.493K Avg Volume: 533.757K
BUY POINT: $60.38 Volume=575K Target=$69.45 Stop=$58.38
POSITION: URL BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 12/20/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$54.32; +0.53; optionable): Chinese internet advertising, search, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Late January 2008
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very low volume as SOHU tests back to the 50 day EMA (51.45), trying to make a higher low at that point and start a new leg to the upside. Got a bit volatile Monday as it was sold off to the 50 day EMA, but volume was low and it held that level. That keeps it in a bigger ascending base. This is one of the Chinese stocks that is setting back up to make the next run. All we need to do is wait for the break higher on a jump in volume. That shows us the buyers are back in and we will join them.
Volume: 491.554K Avg Volume: 1.756M
BUY POINT: $55.22 Volume=2.6M Target=$69.95 Stop=$51.35
POSITION: UZK CK - Mar. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sohu.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/20/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$100.11; +3.15; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Put. GRMN broke the 50 day EMA (102) a week back, tried to hold, but then dumped lower Tuesday on high volume. It recovered Wednesday and Thursday to test, moving back up on very low volume. That shows very little buying on the way back up. Looking for it to fail near 100 and turn back down. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain, but if GRMN rolls over once more it can make it down to 90.
Volume: 3.239M Avg Volume: 6.317M
BUY POINT: $99.88 Volume=6.4M Target=$93.85 Stop=$102.32
POSITION: RZJ MT - Jan. $100p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Looking for an announcement third week of January.
AMX: Potential in late January
APA: Tentatively set for late January.
ATK: Looking for a February announcement.
ATW: Forecast late February or first week of March
BUCY: Quick test of the 50 day EMA. If it holds and continues up we will look at a new play.
CHTT: Researching date.
EOG: Anticipating an announcement in late January or first week of February.
GD: Forecast first week of March. Needs to improve.
GME: Researching date
HOLX: Researching date.
HRS: Forecast in February. Will pinpoint the date when we get a bit closer.
HUM: Forecast first week of February
IRM: Forecast tentatively late January but working on a better date.
ISRG: Tentatively set for last week of January.
LFC: Researching date
MA: Forecast late January
MON: Potential to announce early January with earnings (1-3-08).
OII: Early February
OTEX: Forecast early 2008. Struggling below the 50 day EMA and not in buy position.
RIG: On the rebound after that gap lower.
SGR: Forecast late January.
SID: Now it looks ready.
STLD: Tentatively forecast mid-January
STT: Forecast mid-January
UPL: Forecast second week of February
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 12/18/2007
APA (Apache--$105.13; +1.64; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Thursday but no volume. Still very solid as it comes off the test of near support at the 18 day EMA (101.69). Just want to see more volume as it continues. To recap: Used the market selling and turbulence to set up the current 7 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (97.73) as support. Nice volume last week as it moved higher to finish the right leg, and then very low, below average trade this week as it forms the handle, holding near support at the 18 day EMA. Very nice base has set up to send it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 2.105M Avg Volume: 3.478M
BUY POINT: New: From the close on better volume (orig. $104.55) Volume=5.3M Target=$120.45 Stop=$100.91
POSITION: APA DA - Apr. $105c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apa.html
Play Date: 12/12/2007
HUM (Humana--$75.65; +1.45; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hum.html
EARNINGS: 2-4-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Thursday after showing a nice spike of volume Wednesday at the 50 day EMA that acted as support in the handle to the 8 week base. Looks solid and just need to see that volume turn back up as HUM continues higher.
Volume: 1.118M Avg Volume: 1.612M
BUY POINT: $75.77 Volume=2.4M Target=$88.95 Stop=$74.39
POSITION: HUM BO - Feb. $75c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hum.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/18/2007
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$40.00; +0.37; optionable): Coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Another day of rest on low volume as GMCR percolates after that strong Tuesday break higher. Very nice test, refusing to give up its gains. It make take another session or maybe 3 or 4, but it is ready and we need to be ready when it makes its move. To recap: Volume jumped Tuesday as GMCR made the break from its nicely formed 10 week base. Textbook action from this stock you would not suspect to be such a growth monger.
Volume: 120.768K Avg Volume: 268.015K
BUY POINT: $40.54 Volume=300K Target=$48.88 Stop=$37.88
POSITION: QGM CH - Mar. $40c (52 delta, 115 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gmcr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/19/2007
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$701.00; +7.50; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January 2008
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Thursday, showing a doji that tapped at the 10 day EMA (692) on the low and then rebounded to hold its gain. No volume on the move so we held off. All it needs to show is some stronger volume as it continues higher. Ready to blast off soon. To recap: Excellent low volume test of the 10 and 18 day EMA the past week as the trading range narrows and CME readies for the next run in the breakout form its 6 week base formed in October and November. Excellent relative strength and ready to move in when it breaks higher. Options on a $700 stock are a bit pricey, but the returns as seen with GOOG, BIDU and the like can be downright staggering.
Volume: 370.478K Avg Volume: 637.488K
BUY POINT: On move higher with volume (orig. $700.88) Volume=966K Target=$774.75 Stop=$688.00
POSITION: CWO CT - Mar. 700c 48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 12/13/2007
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$47.76; +1.26; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Rallying nicely Thursday on no volume as trade continues to tail off this week. Just needs to show a bit more solid trade as it continues higher on the breakout. Very nice and ready to move to a new high out of its 7 week base.
Volume: 1.125M Avg Volume: 2.932M
BUY POINT: New: Continued move higher on rising trade (orig. $47.05) Volume=4M Target=$55.00 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: NQD CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndaq.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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