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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/22/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$43.53; +0.07; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After another test toward the 90 day SMA (39.72) to start last week, CMED rebounded to continue the work on its 11 week base. Not a lot of volume on the week as it rebounded, but still a solid pattern and we are looking for CMED to test briefly above the 10 day EMA (42.76) and then to break higher. Want to see volume bump up a bit on that move and then we step in.
Volume: 203.115K Avg Volume: 640.032K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=1M Target=$54.95 Stop=$41.94
POSITION: QCY CI - Mar. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmed.html
Play Date: 12/22/2007
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$94.04; +1.99; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CVX broke higher Friday, starting the breakout move from its 13 week base formed using the 200 day SMA as support for the 'head' during the November selling. This is part of a larger 6 month ascending triangle, making higher lows over the 200 day SMA with a constant top near 95. Looking for more solid trade as CVX continues this move and makes the break higher. We will buy into that move and then play the test to add to the position. This is a leader through the first half of 2007, and this base has set it up for its run in 2008.
Volume: 13.626M Avg Volume: 9.771M
BUY POINT: $95.05 Volume=10M Target=$108.95 Stop=$91.32
POSITION: CVX CS - Mar. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvx.html
Play Date: 12/22/2007
CYBS (Cybersource--$17.53; +0.63; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cybs.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January
STATUS: Cup. Solid volume on the upside sessions the past two weeks, rebounding again to end last week as CYBS broke out from its 8 week base. Used the 50 day EMA (15.33) as support in the base, holding the mid-October breakout from a 9 month flat base. Strong money flow, great accumulation. CYBS is breaking to a 6 year high and we are ready to move in as it continues higher. Solid stock with excellent earnings growth rates.
Volume: 1.417M Avg Volume: 743.055K
BUY POINT: $17.76 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.35 Stop=$16.52
POSITION: CXQ DW - Apr. $17.50c (53 delta, 75 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cybs.html
Play Date: 12/22/2007
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$83.26; +5.13; optionable): Chinese education and training services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January
STATUS: Ascending base. EDU ended the week with a bounce off the 50 day EMA (75.51). This is the second bounce off of this level during its 10 week base, making a higher low as it did. Can run like a deer when it gets rolling, and looking at positions as EDU continues the bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 440.005K Avg Volume: 620.031K
BUY POINT: $83.88 Volume=700K Target=$99.95 Stop=$79.92
POSITION: EDU DQ - Apr. $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/edu.html
Play Date: 12/22/2007
IMO (Imperial Oil Ltd.--$54.00; +1.74; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imo.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Friday (though that is nothing uncommon Friday) as IMO broke higher from its 6 week pattern that formed at the bottom of a 7 week cup that is forming. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during this consolidation, setting the foundation for a nice run higher. Energy is on the move and IMO looks ready to move itself.
Volume: 449.4K Avg Volume: 290.834K
BUY POINT: $54.45 Volume=325K Target=$64.95 Stop=$52.39
POSITION: IMO EK - May $55c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imo.html
Play Date: 12/22/2007
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$57.10; +2.36; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January
STATUS: Ascending base. After a mid-week test of the 50 day EMA (50.91), STLD broke higher to end the week, clearing a short 8 week base that used that key support for the lows in the pattern. After that quick hard thump lower to the 50 day EMA, STLD found its legs. Looking to move in again as STLD continues this break higher.
Volume: 6.54M Avg Volume: 2.096M
BUY POINT: $57.45 Volume=2.4M Target=$65.95 Stop=$53.88
POSITION: RQL BK - Feb. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/20/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$35.16; -0.01; optionable): Graphics cards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher with the market on Friday but could not hold the move. Still an excellent setup to continue higher out of this handle. To recap: Great runner for us in 2007, its last run taking it from mid-August to mid-October and covering 9 points. Not bad for $30 stock. It needed a break and it has consolidated and formed a nice 9 week base. It rallied higher through the first week of December and has since moved laterally, using the market selling to form its handle at the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA. Like how it did not really selling during the last sell off, instead moving laterally; no one wanted to sell it. Thursday it gapped higher though volume lagged. It is a large cap tech, and it has set up to break higher and take the torch if technology is going to lead for awhile once more. Just want to see a bit more volume as it makes the move. Nice.
Volume: 10.872M Avg Volume: 12.176M
BUY POINT: $35.57 Volume=14M Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.98
POSITION: UVA CG - Mar. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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