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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 3
NOTE: Part 2 precedes part 3 this evening.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon Market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor Market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 12/03 Test 18 198.57 -0.38 184.30 203.95 28M 45M 195.88
Current. Rallied higher on a story about a deal with Fox movies, but could not hold the move, showing a doji on the candlestick charts. May have tapped out this move & we will look to take the last options positions off the table.
AAPL 11/20 Test 50 198.57 -0.38 175.11 198.95 28M 40M 195.88
Current.
APA 12/18 PreAnn 106.69 -0.68 105.89 121.45 2.3M 5.3M 104.85
Nice orderly test of that break higher last week. May come back to the 10 day EMA (105) and if it does that is another buy point we want to take advantage of.
APH 12/22 Test BO 46.50 -0.59 46.82 53.95 411K 1M 44.78
Buy Not Issued. Faded back from the highs of the past couple of sessions. Still above the 10 day EMA (46) and still in great shape to continue the breakout. Just need to see a bounce up on nice trade to move in.
BG 12/26 Test 18 117.30 -1.83 120.31 138.65 891K 1.4M 117.38
Buy Not Hit. Sold back on continued below average volume, holding near the 18 day EMA. Still in the lateral move, still being patient and letting it set up for the next break higher.
BG 11/29 Cup 117.30 -1.83 116.55 133.85 891K 1.6M 121.48
BIDU 12/06 DB hdl 409.20 +9.53 395.38 454.00 6.6M 9M 404.88
Current. Excellent break higher by this Chinese stocks that has been bucking the market and moving higher this week. Solid volume Thursday as it made the break over the early December highs. No complaints here with this strength in a weak market.
CF 12/19 Asc Bse 113.87 -2.69 100.66 119.95 1.7M 3M 113.32
Current. After a screaming run higher the past week CF is slowing some & looks ready to take a breather. Looking for a test of 100ish level to hold.
CME 12/19 Test BO 678.00 -12.00 693.78 774.75 261K 966K 688.00
Buy Not Issued. Sold off further, holding near some support at 675. Will see if it can hold the line and bounce here for a quick play back up to 700ish. That has been the range the past month and can give us a nice gain on that move.
CME 12/04 Dbl btm 678.00 -12.00 681.23 745.00 261K 9M 698.65
CMED 12/22 Rev HS 42.80 -1.15 44.05 54.95 211K 1M 41.94
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower and tapped the 50 day SMA on the low & then bounced. Still in good shape in the pattern & we are just biding our time as it sets up for the move.
CY 12/04 Cup 37.36 -1.38 35.90 41.65 3.1M 7M 37.21
Current. Sold back, giving up the Wednesday gap but did so on low volume and still in solid shape.
CYBS 12/22 Cup 18.26 -0.67 18.03 21.65 1M 1.1M 17.77
Current. Gave back some of the solid moves of the past few sessions but on lower trade as it tests some of that move.
DE 12/20 Test 18 90.37 -2.05 88.48 101.55 3.4M 6M 90.04
Current. Gave up some ground in the market selling, but held support at 90. Looking for it to hold in this range and then continue the move higher as this is one of the stocks that we anticipate moving well in 2008.
EDU 12/22 Asc Tri 80.45 -3.61 83.88 99.95 323K 700K 79.92
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher, but with its beta EDU dropped as the market fell. Held the 18 day EMA on the close. Will let it make this bottom at near support and ride out the selling. Then when it starts to break higher, we move in.
EGOV 12/01 Rev HS 8.62 -0.28 8.39 10.25 118K 300K 8.68
Faded back from the moves higher the past week. Lower volume and this is just a test of the move. Looking for it to hold near the 10 day EMA (8.48) and then continue the break. That will be a new buy point on that test.
ESLR 12/17 Test BO 17.94 -0.90 15.63 18.85 11M 7.4M 17.31
Current. Sold off pretty sharply intraday but then rebounded to post a modest loss. Excellent action heading into the session that was dominated by gloomy news and with the rebound we still like what we see here.
ESLR 11/15 Test 18 17.94 -0.90 14.17 16.95 11M 5.4M 17.31
Current.
FCEL 12/18 Test BO 9.99 -0.32 12.12 14.95 2.1M 1.4M 12.42
Current. Gapped higher and looked solid as it moved to the 18 day EMA but it could not hold the move. It is at the late October peak and this is where it needs to find footing. Thus far it is holding here at 10.
FLO 11/15 Asc Bse 23.90 -0.55 23.14 26.72 316K 706K 24.11
Trailing Stop. Sold off through the 10 day EMA so we closed it out of an abundance of caution, not to mention some boredom.
GIGM 12/26 Asc Bse 19.70 -0.53 20.91 25.22 504K 2M 19.45
Buy Not Hit. Gapped lower but held the 10 day EMA with a doji on low volume. That means it is still in the base and is still in great shape to make the break higher.
GILD 11/27 Dbl btm 46.31 -0.83 44.51 50.75 2.5M 10M 46.27
Current. Sold off late but volume was even lower as GILD held the 10 day EMA on the low. Still in great shape as it pinches off in a narrowing range in its 9 week base. Needs to hold in this range and make the break higher.
GMCR 12/18 Cup hdl 40.55 -0.91 41.50 49.95 134K 300K 39.69
Current. Modest decline on low volume as GMCR holds up nicely, riding out the tougher session & keeping in good position to make the break higher after the test.
GME 12/15 Test 50 62.20 -0.68 60.98 72.65 2.1M 4M 60.77
Current. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and recouped some losses on the close. Nice test of the last move higher and see nothing in this lower volume move suggesting any issues right now.
GOOG 12/03 Cup hdl 700.74 -10.10 687.88 742.00 2.9M 8M 713.32
Current. Rallied higher but then faded to give back Wednesday's gain almost to the penny. Still holding above near support and still in a nice ascending pattern, looking to make a higher low here.
GOOG 11/17 Test 50 700.74 -10.10 659.65 724.95 2.9M 8.6M 713.32
Current.
GSOL 12/26 Asc Bse 29.89 +1.28 31.68 37.95 527K 550K 29.78
Buy Not Hit. Gapped lower but held the 50 day EMA & bounced off that level. Volume was up as it did. That, despite the loss, is good action as it shows big money buyers (e.g. mutual funds) supporting it at that level. Just more good action in the base and we will wait and let it show us the breakout move.
GTI 12/15 Cup hdl 18.09 -0.82 19.04 22.95 455K 2M 17.71
Buy Not Hit. Peeled back from the Monday and Wednesday moves higher. Low volume. Still in the handle, still waiting for a break higher that sticks.
HOLX 12/15 Asc Bse 69.82 -1.46 67.88 77.65 1.3M 3.6M 69.39
A bit of a crack in the armor as HOLX comes back some after the solid rally the pat two weeks. Needs to let some steam off and a move down to the 10 day EMA (68.47) would do a great job of that as well as give us a new entry point.
ICE 12/17 Test BO 189.63 -4.87 185.36 209.95 650K 2.2M 183.08
Current. Faded back in the market selling but on very low trade. It is holding its uptrend above the 10 day EMA and we are going to let it continue to run as long as this trend holds. Nothing Thursday indicates it is not going to do just that.
IMO 12/22 Rev HS 55.64 +0.78 55.15 65.95 286K 325K 53.95
Current. Solid volume as IMO scratched out some more upside though it gave back more than half of its move. Not bad action at all given the weak market.
ININ 12/19 Test 50 26.70 -1.45 26.32 31.75 141K 300K 24.77
Buy Not Issued. Thumped back to the 18 day EMA (26.59) on the close with lighter trading volume. Not a bad test at all given the lighter volume. A bounce up off of this support on rising trade is a great entry point.
IRM 12/11 Cup hdl 37.41 -1.13 38.52 44.45 370K 991K 36.89
Current. Not showing a lot of iron in its Thursday move as do the words of Ten Bears and Josey Wales (from 'The Outlaw Josey Wales'). Thudded back to the 10 day EMA on the close after a nice break higher Wednesday. Lower trade so not panicking but this was not what we wanted to see from a stocks that had basically ignored the selling as it climbed and formed its bases over the past 6 months. Fine time to show a bit of weakness.
LKQX 12/18 Asc Bse 21.55 -1.07 21.57 25.95 855K 2M 21.45
Current. Dumped to the 10 day EMA on the close on rising but still very low trade. This is where it needs to hold the line.
MA 12/17 Test 18 210.03 +0.55 211.98 244.95 2M 4.8M 204.22
Current. Jumped higher to 216 intraday but could not hold the move. Though it gave back much of the session's gains, it remains in excellent shape as it continues to show superior relative strength.
MCD 12/26 Test 50 59.19 -0.69 60.57 69.75 4.2M 10M 59.69
Buy Not Hit. Was not ready to move higher, fading back toward the 50 day EMA. Moved the buy point to account for a break higher through the 10 and 18 day EMA.
MDR 12/15 Cup hdl 59.58 +0.35 59.24 69.32 1.3M 3.4M 55.69
Buy Not Issued. Nice action in a weak tape, still set to make the breakout from a nice base.
MOS 12/17 FlyPlat 95.36 +1.62 86.10 99.95 3.3M 5M 93.11
Current. Showing its strength, moving higher in a weak tape. Closed off the high but not showing any chinks as it continues its trend above the 10 day EMA after the strong continuation break higher from last week.
MSFT 12/05 Test 50 35.97 -0.64 34.59 40.74 33M 90M 35.45
Current. Faded but on low volume, still well above the 10 day EMA (35.60) and letting it make this test.
NDAQ 12/13 Cup hdl 48.61 -1.39 48.32 56.00 1M 4M 47.68
Current. Sold back from the November highs but on very low volume. No distribution, just a pullback in an uptrend above the 10 day EMA (47.80). Looking for it to hold in that general area and then bounce. We can look for more at that time.
NVDA 12/20 Cup hdl 35.14 -1.12 35.57 41.65 6M 14M 33.98
Buy Not Issued. Sold back to the 10 day EMA on some rising but still extremely low volume. No problem if it holds here and then resumes the move and shows us the breakout.
NYX 11/01 Test BO 87.15 -2.85 91.29 99.95 1.9M 7M 87.08
Current. Turned back from 90 and fell to the 18 day EMA. Lower trade so no heavy selling. Looking for a bottom here at the 18 day EMA and then will look at more as they move back up off of this level on some rising trade.
NYX 10/23 Cup 87.15 -2.85 88.85 99.95 1.9M 5M 87.08
Current.
ONXX 12/26 Asc Bse 57.61 -0.88 59.15 70.95 560K 1.8M 56.45
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher but did not have the trade to hold the move. Sold back but is still above the 10 day EMA and in its nice lateral base. Just be patient and it will show the break we want to see to put our money in it.
PZE 12/13 Cup hdl 12.78 -0.30 12.84 15.55 391K 400K 12.53
Current. As with many stocks PZE sold back to the 10 day EMA on lower volume even if oil was higher. Still holding the 10 day and thus the uptrend support for this stock.
RIMM 11/27 Test 50 117.36 -1.58 119.22 136.95 17M 32M 116.21
Current. Nice, easy pullback on lower trade as RIMM tests last week's gap higher on strong earnings. Good relative strength, and once this pullback is over it will be ready to make the break higher. Really like this relative strength.
SDS 12/12 Rolling 53.04 +1.37 53.96 60.75 7.9M 21M 54.96
Current. Jumped back up to the 90 day SMA on the close as it moves inversely to SP500.
SOHU 12/15 Cup hdl 54.14 -2.44 56.68 69.95 716K 2.6M 54.69
Current. Nice run early in the session up to 57.41 and then got caught in the afternoon selling and gave back the Wednesday move. Still in the lateral move, still solid, and looking to add some more positions on the next rising volume break higher.
SRCL 12/20 Asc Tri 60.66 -1.21 60.38 69.45 413K 575K 58.38
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher to continue the move but then rolled back down to close lower. A move down to 60 fills the gap and provides another very good entry point after the test. We see it hold that level and then bounce on volume and that is when you move in.
TECH 12/19 Test BO 66.82 -1.68 68.11 78.48 65K 250K 66.22
Buy Not Issued. Dropping.
VIP 12/03 Test BO 42.68 -2.23 36.78 42.85 4.6M 5M 42.38
Current. After the excellent move higher VIP is coming back to test. Volume was strong to the downside, but we are viewing this test as an opportunity as it comes back to test near the 10 day EMA at 41. A hold at that level that bounces is a new buy for this horse.
VIP 11/08 Test 18 42.68 -2.23 32.52 40.45 4.6M 3.2M 42.38
Current.
WFT 12/05 Trnd Rv 70.11 -1.47 67.58 77.95 2.3M 6.1M 69.95
Current. Gave back some ground but on very low trade after 4 straight upside sessions. A bit of backing and filling here is normal. Want to see it hold in this general range with another point or so lower just fine. Then on a new break higher we add some positions.
XTO 12/12 DB hdl 52.35 -0.27 52.88 59.95 2.4M 5M 51.11
Buy Not Issued. Sold back a bit more after gapping higher Wednesday and Thursday. Held at the 10 day EMA on the close on lower trade. This is okay. If it can hold here and rebound on rising trade XTO is still a nice buy.
YGE 12/17 Cup hdl 39.13 -2.27 35.48 42.50 2.8M 4.3M 39.88
Current. Volatile with its higher beta, but it showed some nice action as it tapped at the 10 day EMA (37.05) on the low and rebounded to recoup about half the loses. Have to ride through a bit of ups and downs on this one, and after the strong move the past week, a bit of give back on a weak session is okay.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
FRE 12/12 Put 33.70 +1.28 31.05 27.04 8.9M 14M 32.11
Buy Not Issued. Dropping. Showing too much upside stickiness, especially in the weak Thursday market.
GRMN 12/20 Put 100.82 -2.50 99.88 93.85 2M 6.4M 102.32
Buy Not Issued. Stalling at the 50 day EMA (102) again after bouncing up through that level Wednesday. Just being patient and see if GRMN finds the directions to the downside.
IWM 12/11 Put 77.39 -1.88 76.21 73.15 71M 90M 74.22
Current. Small caps were slaughtered and the Russell 2000 ETF undercut the 50 day EMA. Managed to bounce off the 18 day EMA (77.09) on the low, but we note the failure came at the August peaks and just below the 200 day SMA (80.28).
SPY 12/11 Put 147.67 -1.88 147.98 143.65 119M 200M 145.72
Current. turned back form the 200 day SMA (149), hanging on to close at the 18 day EMA. Lower high. Not definitive but still looks weak thanks to those weak financial stocks.
End part 2 of 3
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