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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/05/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$135.29; -2.08; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 2-7-08
STATUS: Breakout test. DO surged in December, clearing an 18 week base on base pattern. It surged to a new high on strong volume and then spent last week's selling coming back to test near support at the 18 day EMA (134). This is its second test of this near support since its breakout, and that leaves plenty of upside still ahead as energy takes the point as most of the market sells. This is one of those stocks that used the selling to set up for its next upside move and you always like to see that.
Volume: 2.653M Avg Volume: 2.375M
BUY POINT: $136.32 Volume=3M Target=$156.95 Stop=$132.57
POSITION: DO CG - Mar. $135c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 01/05/2008
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$81.82; +3.89; optionable): Chinese training and education services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: 1-15-08
STATUS: Ascending base. EDU is volatile, but it is forming up a great pattern and thus we are taking a look at it once more. Friday it was up nicely on very strong volume as it bounced off the 50 day EMA (77), making a higher low at that key support in its 10 week base. Money flow is strong and the price/volume action is good. Looking for a continued break higher to move in. Another stock showing excellent relative strength in a weak market.
Volume: 870.946K Avg Volume: 610.731K
BUY POINT: $83.32 Volume=750K Target=$99.95 Stop=$78.77
POSITION: EDU DP - Apr. $80c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/edu.html
Play Date: 01/05/2008
MO (Altria Group--$74.90; -0.49; optionable): Tobacco
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mo.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January; has not confirmed the date
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. In this weaker market MO is always a good place to put some money as it can give moves in the $6 to $8 range; nothing flashy, just nice and steady. It has come back to the 50 day EMA (74.78) the past 5 weeks, testing a nice breakout and run in November from a large 8 month trading range. Good technical entry point; just want to see strong volume as it makes the move, and that should not be a problem.
Volume: 11.11M Avg Volume: 10.306M
BUY POINT: $76.31 Volume=12M Target=$85.95 Stop=$74.65
POSITION: MO CO - Mar. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mo.html
Play Date: 01/05/2008
SLT (Sterlite Industries--$26.32; +0.49; optionable): Copper production in India
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slt.html
EARNINGS: Third week of February
STATUS: Ascending base. Taking a new look at SLT as it continues to build for the breakout. A new issue in June 2007 and now working on its second base. It bounced off the 50 day EMA in mid-December, and then spent the past week working laterally, holding the 18 day EMA (25.56) in a narrow range, resting for the next move. Looks super and on Friday volume was moving higher as SLT gapped up. Looks ready to clear resistance and start the next run higher.
Volume: 1.417M Avg Volume: 2.284M
BUY POINT: $26.68 Volume=2.4M Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.45
POSITION: SLT CE - Mar. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slt.html
Play Date: 01/05/2008
SU (Suncor Energy--$109.40; -3.53; optionable): Canadian oil sands, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Broke higher Thursday on stronger, above average volume, but then gave it back Friday. Solid 8 week base has formed, consolidating its last move and setting up SU for a new all-time high. Friday was something of a gift as it gives us a good entry point on SU as it starts back up.
Volume: 1.803M Avg Volume: 2.331M
BUY POINT: $111.55 Volume=3M Target=$128.65 Stop=$108.55
POSITION: SU CB - Mar. $110c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/su.html
Downside: Some downside movers in continuing downtrends to make us some money while we wait for the relief bounce to set up some more index and other downside.
Play Date: 01/05/2008
BARE (Bare Escentuals--$22.82; -0.98; optionable): Cosmetics, skin and body care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bare.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Put. BARE peaked mid-year and has trended lower since. It made a lower low in November and needed to come up for air. It did so, rising to the 50 day EMA (24) in December. It turned lower to start the year with volume spiking back up Friday to the highest level since it gapped lower in late November. That shows new distribution has started as it fails its attempt to climb back over the 50 day EMA resistance. Money flow has turned back down ahead of the price. Looking to move in as BARE continues its trend lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.281M Avg Volume: 1.034M
BUY POINT: $22.76 Volume=1M Target=$20.72 Stop=$23.75
POSITION: URY NE - Feb. $25p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bare.html
Play Date: 01/05/2008
FRG (Fronteer Development Group--$9.79; -0.40; optionable): Industrial metals exploration, mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frg.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Put. Unlike many metals stocks, FRG is not looking healthy. It peaked its rally off the August low in early November, and finished forming a head and shoulders top in November, making the initial run lower through mid-December. It rebounded in the holiday rally but this week it tested and failed at the 50 day EMA (10.37). Looking at another leg lower after the breakdown from the topping pattern. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 236.408K Avg Volume: 314.645K
BUY POINT: $9.68 Volume=320K Target=$8.05 Stop=$10.22
POSITION: FRG NB - Feb. $10p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/frg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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