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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/10/2008
CERN (Cerner--$59.59; +1.43; optionable): Healthcare information systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume was up all week as CERN moved off of support at 56, forming the second leg in its 13 week double bottom base. It is surging up to the 'hump' just over 60, the midpoint resistance in the pattern. If it surged on through on solid volume we will move into some positions to start the play and then after a test that bounces we will complete the buy. It may form a handle at the 60 level, working laterally for a few sessions to set up the next big break higher. Sometimes they stop, sometimes they don't. We want to see strong volume on the continued move from here if no handle is formed as that shows us the buyers are piling in as it breaks resistance. Solid leader setting up to run again to yet another new high.
Volume: 500.382K Avg Volume: 550.688K
BUY POINT: $60.38 Volume=826K Target=$69.95 Stop=$57.55
POSITION: CQN CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cern.html
Play Date: 01/10/2008
BX (The Blackstone Group--$19.84; +1.74; optionable): Asset management, private equity
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bx.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Potential reversal. When BX went public that marked the end of the M&A boom and in fact the bull run. It spent its entire 7 month history as a publicly traded stock selling off. The owners sold right after the IPO, telling everyone to get out. They are the masters of market timing and are worth watching. Now they are buying their own stock. Volume jumped to the highest level in two months Thursday as BX jumped off the lows. This is a rank speculative play but with the owners buying we are willing to follow along.
Volume: 7.933M Avg Volume: 2.882M
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=4.5M Target=$24.00 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: BX CD - Mar. $20C (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bx.html
Play Date: 01/10/2008
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$71.32; -0.20; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Breakout test. UPL broke higher in late December, clearing a 9 week base and bumping up into an all-time high. It has faded back in the market weakness, tapping at the 18 day EMA (70.21) on the intraday lows. Nice set up to make the next break higher and continue its new run. Strong stock, leader in its sector.
Volume: 682.646K Avg Volume: 1.107M
BUY POINT: $72.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$82.95 Stop=$69.88
POSITION: UPL CN - Mar. $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/upl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/10/2008
CVS (CVS Corp.--$37.63; +0.44; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvs.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-08
STATUS: Put. CVS gapped lower to start the year, gapping below the 200 day SMA (37.96) on the move. It tried to recover that level but after a day over it tumbled back below it. Tried to make the move back over it this week, but failing. Money flow is in the toilet and looking for CVS to follow it down. A move to the target lands a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 13.816M Avg Volume: 13.296M
BUY POINT: $37.44 Volume=14M Target=$35.36 Stop=$38.11
POSITION: CVS NU - Feb. $37.50p (-31 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cvs.html
Play Date: 01/10/2008
DJX (1/100 Dow Industrials--$128.53; +1.18; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$djx.html
STATUS: Put. Rebounding to test after a massive tumble from late December. It started the bounce on Wednesday with the market and again Thursday. It tapped at the 10 day EMA (129.48) on the high and then faded back. It may test that level again before rolling back down, but with the AXP news after hours we are looking for DJX to roll back over.
Volume: 2.062M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $128.41 Volume=2.2M Target=$125.00 Stop=$129.51
POSITION: DJQ NY - Feb. $129p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/$djx.html
Play Date: 01/10/2008
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$71.67; +0.94; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html
STATUS: Put. Made us some great money on its last dive, and now it is rebounding in the market relief bounce. Looking for IWM to tap the 10 day EMA (73.10) on the bounce and then a roll back over. We will pick it up as it comes back down from the rebound to test near resistance. A move to the target lands a nice 100%ish gain.
Volume: 153.879M Avg Volume: 94.202M
BUY POINT: $72.88 Volume=150M Target=$69.75 Stop=$73.21
POSITION: IOW MU - Feb. $73p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
Play Date: 01/10/2008
SDS (UltraShort S&P500 ETF--$57.81; -1.09; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Test break higher. This is the ETF that moves inversely to the SP500 at a 2:1 rate. This makes it a bit more aggressive than the SPY. It surged to start the year as SP500 fell, making us great money. It is testing now, tapping the 10 day EMA (56.85) on the low and bouncing Thursday. It may come back to test that level again, but we want to be ready Friday if it the SP500's upside runs dry. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain with the option play.
Volume: 27.141M Avg Volume: 17.847M
BUY POINT: $58.04 Volume=25M Target=$63.45 Stop=$56.68
POSITION: SDS BF - Feb. $58c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sds.html
Play Date: 01/10/2008
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$141.29; +0.92; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied back up to tap the 10 day EMA (142.81), tapping that level on the Thursday high and then peeling back. We are looking for a further bounce to test that level a bit more to make the entry really nice. May not get it with the AXP news; if so we will move in after the opening move is tested. A move to the target from our preferred entry point lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 335.701M Avg Volume: 212.768M
BUY POINT: $141.88 Volume=300M Target=$137.65 Stop=$143.03
POSITION: SFB NL - Feb. $142p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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