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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/12/2008
AGU (Agrium--$69.08; +0.74; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Breakout test. AGU is one of the horses in the agriculture space (fertilizer and such to the world markets). Impressive run in 2007, and it still looks to have more ahead of it. It broke higher from a 7 week base in the second half of December, rallied near 75. In the market selling last week, it faded to test the breakout, holding at the breakout point at 65 on the Wednesday and Thursday intraday lows, bouncing up nicely off of that level. Friday volume was up as AGU continued the bounce up off the test, posting a gain as most of the market sold. Nice hold of the breakout and looking for a new break higher off of this test to give us the buy in this leader.
Volume: 3.562M Avg Volume: 2.227M
BUY POINT: $70.32 Volume=3.3M Target=$83.95 Stop=$67.77
POSITION: AGU DN - Apr. $70c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Play Date: 01/12/2008
EJ (E-House China Holdings--$26.23; -1.63; optionable): Real estate agency, brokerage services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ej.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Cup. A new issue in August, EJ enjoyed a great run through late October and made us some great money on that move. It peaked to end that month and fell into the current 10 week base, something of a double bottom, something of a cup. It made a higher low in the December selling, and Thursday it surged back through the 50 day EMA (24.50) on tremendous volume. Friday it tested back on much lower, below average volume. It may form a handle here near 27.50, i.e. moving laterally the next few days, setting the next break higher. Whether it does or not, when it gives us a strong upside move on some more strong volume we are looking to buy.
Volume: 538.485K Avg Volume: 1.052M
BUY POINT: $27.91 Volume=1.5M Target=$33.95 Stop=$25.96
POSITION: EJ EE - May $25c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ej.html
Play Date: 01/12/2008
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$59.82; -0.57; optionable): Food and water testing, veterinary products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Cup. After a nice breakout in late June and a run through mid-November IDXX needed some consolidation and it is currently working on a 10 week base at the 90 day SMA (58.91). It split in late November, and it needed to absorb those shares as well. It has done a great job, working in a very orderly pattern with a rounded bottom (yes, they are nice in stock patterns as well) and is just starting to move up off of that bottom. Volume has spiked up above average on the upside sessions the past week, and that tells us there are buyers accumulating shares. Ready to move in as it breaks higher. Great stock in a great sector for this more defensive market.
Volume: 433.956K Avg Volume: 312.697K
BUY POINT: $61.21 Volume=469K Target=$70.45 Stop=$59.22
POSITION: UID DL - Apr. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/idxx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/12/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$141.58; -5.98; optionable): Heavy contsruction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Put. Flipping this one to the downside. FWLT peaked early in January and fell through the 50 day EMA (149.84). It recovered the second half of the week in the relief bounce but then fell back to close below the 90 day SMA (144) Friday. A lower high and looking for FWLT to resume the move lower down to support at 130. A move to that level lands a 35%ish gain.
Volume: 1.541M Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $140.21 Volume=1.8M Target=$130.45 Stop=$143.88
POSITION: UFB NV - Feb. $140p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Play Date: 01/12/2008
NILE (Blue Nile--$57.11; -5.71; optionable): Online diamonds, jewelry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nile.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Put. A big mover in the first half of 2007, NILE peaked in early October and started the current downtrend. A precursor to the economic slowing no doubt. It fell through the 200 day SMA (70.21) to start the month after failing a recovery over that level in late December. Last week after an ugly downside leg to start 2008, it worked laterally and then rebounded to the 10 day EMA (62) Thursday. It stalled there and turned back down Friday on the biggest volume spike in two months. There is an upside gap back in early May at 48. It looks as if NILE is going to fill that gap on this selling, and we are looking to ride it down close to that level. A move to the target lands a nice, fat 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.407M Avg Volume: 617.453K
BUY POINT: $56.65 Volume=926K Target=$49.21 Stop=$60.11
POSITION: JWU NK - Feb. $55p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nile.html
Play Date: 01/12/2008
NOV (National Oilwell--$69.83; -2.32; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-08
STATUS: Put. Big runner in 2007 through October. Since then it has attempted to base, but it has suffered a series of high volume selloffs each time it was at a point where it looked ready to make a serious move. It made a lower high to start the new year and Friday it closed at a low for the hear, ready to break below support in the 70 range. Money flow is definitely broken and diving lower ahead of price, showing a negative divergence, pulling on the price to follow it. Looking to step in on a break lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 4.989M Avg Volume: 5.538M
BUY POINT: $69.22 Volume=5.6M Target=$65.11 Stop=$71.75
POSITION: NOV NN - Feb. $70p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nov.html
Play Date: 01/12/2008
NVDA (Nvidia--$27.05; -1.24; optionable): Graphics chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Head and shoulders. It produces chips that go into many of the hot devices, but its pattern, after a strong move through October, has rolled over. It made a dashing recovery attempt from mid-November through late December, ready to snatch victory again. Then it ran into a buzzsaw to start the year and dove lower, filling a modest gain from late June 2007. It rebounded to test the 200 day SMA (29.70) it collapsed through on Monday, then turned over Friday, starting the selling once more. Looking for NVDA now to fill the next gap from mid-June. A move down to that target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 14.316M Avg Volume: 12.91M
BUY POINT: $26.78 Volume=15M Target=$24.03 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: UVA NY - Feb. $27.50p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvda.html
Play Date: 01/12/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$96.24; -6.54; optionable): Online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: First week February
STATUS: Double top. Each time PCLN got into trouble the past few months, Captain Kirk has warped out of trouble. This time, however, the mother ship cannot be saved. PCLEN double topped in December and rolled over to start the new year. Last week it tried to hold at the 90 day SMA on Wednesday and Thursday, bouncing up off that level (99) but Friday it broke decisively below that level. It is ready to fill a gap in the 88 to 90 range and we are looking to play that move as it continued lower. That lands a 38%ish gain. There is another gap point from August down at 63. It may take awhile but with this pattern and rollover we anticipate PCLN will eventually fill that gap on this round of selling. That means we are looking to play some puts near term for the fill of the most recent gap and selling some positions short for a long, steady decline to that August gap (of course we will also play the puts anytime it gives us an opportunity).
Volume: 1.517M Avg Volume: 1.343M
BUY POINT: $95.94 Volume=1.6M Target=$88.22 Stop=$99.21
POSITION: PUZ NS - Feb. $95p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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world stock market
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