|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/14/2008
APOL (Apollo Group--$79.92; +3.11; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-8-08
STATUS: Test breakout. It has been a long time indeed since APOL showed the right stuff. APOL gapped higher last Wednesday on stronger than expected earnings and guidance. It worked slightly lower and laterally to end the week then surged back up on Monday with some rising, still very strong trade. It bumped into the November highs, the highs in its 10 week base. Excellent set up for a break higher and looking good for the new breakout. Ready to move in as it makes that move.
Volume: 4.577M Avg Volume: 2.592M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=4M Target=$92.95 Stop=$78.55
POSITION: OAQ EP - May $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
BEC (Beckman Coulter--$73.88; +0.98; optionable): Biomedical testing instrument systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bec.html
EARNINGS: 2-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a handle (lateral move above near support below the old highs) in its 13 week base. Used the 200 day SMA as support in the November selling, showing it has some solid institutional support. Solid base to consolidate a good move from August 2006. Volume has improved on the upside sessions this month with a good volume surge again on Monday. It is a solid stock in a great sector for a defensive market and in great shape to break higher.
Volume: 530K Avg Volume: 437.606K
BUY POINT: $74.62 Volume=656K Target=$85.95 Stop=$72.32
POSITION: BEC EO - May $75c (48 delta, 109 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bec.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
IRIS (Iris Intl.--$21.49; -0.28; optionable): IVD systems, supplies for urinalysis, fluids testing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iris.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out of a large 2.25 year cup with handle base last week, clearing a 14 week cup with handle that acted as the base in doing so. Strong surge on strong volume, them moving laterally to end last week on lower, average volume. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. The 10 day EMA (21.01) is rising to meet the stock, and it may take another session or two for the two to meet. When they do that typically sends the stock higher as it resumes its breakout move. That is when we move in.
Volume: 158.463K Avg Volume: 146.637K
BUY POINT: $22.24 Volume=220K Target=$26.95 Stop=$20.97
POSITION: JGU DX - Apr. $22.50c (48 delta, 134 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iris.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
IVGN (Invitrogen--$96.22; -0.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivgn.html
EARNINGS: 2-5-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After an excellent run in 2007 IVGN needed to take a breather. This very nicely formed 6 week base showing solid up to down volume of late with a nice volume spike Monday. Nice hold at the 50 day EMA (92.16) shows plenty of support by the big money. May take another session or two to complete the handle before it makes the break but looks very good.
Volume: 1.45M Avg Volume: 805.536K
BUY POINT: $97.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$111.95 Stop=$94.39
POSITION: IUV ES - May $95c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ivgn.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
NOEC (New Oriental Energy Chemical--$7.47; +1.25; no options): Chinese fertilizer company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surging volume Monday as the fertilizer stocks were on the buy list. A new issue in May 2007, it formed its first base starting in October. Some hard selling last week, but it held the 50 day EMA (5.78) on the low and then rebounding Friday and Monday on rising trade. Excellent action and looking to move in as NOEC continues the break high.
Volume: 2.904M Avg Volume: 206.067K
BUY POINT: $7.72 Volume=350K Target=$12.95 Stop=$7.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/noec.html
Play Date: 01/14/2008
RIG (Transocean--$141.75; +5.36; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 2-20-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. RIG made another test of its 50 day EMA (133.61), more or less, last week, coming back to test a strong surge to end December. It broke out from a 13 week base in early November and rallied higher. This is the test of the 50 day EMA that sets up the next run higher. We were looking for a bit more of a test, but it bounced before it made it there. Looking to take positions as it continues higher on this bounce.
Volume: 5.348M Avg Volume: 8.456M
BUY POINT: $142.22 Volume=10M Target=$162.95 Stop=$139.89
POSITION: RIG EH - May $140c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rig.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/14/2008
MS (Morgan Stanley--$48.90; +0.51; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
EARNINGS: Mid-March
STATUS: Put. As with most financials, MS has trended lower, falling out of a 7 week trading range in early January as the financials broke lower once more on recession concerns. It bottomed last week and rebounded back to the 10 day EMA (49.22), but it rose on lower and lower volume. It tapped the 10 day on Fridays high and showed a doji at that level on Monday. Watching to see if that bounce is all that is in the tank. As it rolls over we will look at moving in with put options for the run down toward the January low (44.94) or lower if it continues selling. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 10.954M Avg Volume: 16.148M
BUY POINT: $48.35 Volume=17M Target=$45.00 Stop=$49.55
POSITION: MS NJ - Feb. $50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ms.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/12/2008
EJ (E-House China Holdings--$27.17; +0.94; optionable): Real estate agency, brokerage services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ej.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February
STATUS: Cup. Gapped higher Monday but on lower trade as EJ continues testing its strong break higher last Thursday. Looks as if it is going to form a handle here and then give us the next break higher. To recap: A new issue in August, EJ enjoyed a great run through late October and made us some great money on that move. It peaked to end that month and fell into the current 10 week base, something of a double bottom, something of a cup. It made a higher low in the December selling, and Thursday it surged back through the 50 day EMA (24.50) on tremendous volume. Friday it tested back on much lower, below average volume. It may form a handle here near 27.50, i.e. moving laterally the next few days, setting the next break higher. Whether it does or not, when it gives us a strong upside move on some more strong volume we are looking to buy.
Volume: 480.604K Avg Volume: 1.052M
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.95 Stop=$26.18
POSITION: EJ EE - May $25c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ej.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/12/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$141.17; -0.41; optionable): Heavy contsruction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Put. Did not participate in the Monday surge higher, instead bumping up against the 90 day SMA (144.10) and fading for a loss. It recovered several times intraday, but could not close positive. The lack of strength caught our eye; if it heads lower and the market weakens back up it is a downside play. To recap: Flipping this one to the downside. FWLT peaked early in January and fell through the 50 day EMA (149.84). It recovered the second half of the week in the relief bounce but then fell back to close below the 90 day SMA (144) Friday. A lower high and looking for FWLT to resume the move lower down to support at 130. A move to that level lands a 35%ish gain.
Volume: 1.741M Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $140.21 Volume=1.8M Target=$130.45 Stop=$143.88
POSITION: UFB NV - Feb. $140p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
