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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: SNS continued its strong breakout after the recent test back to the 18 day MVA. FRK hit the buy point of 40.58 in the pennant but we are still waiting for volume to support this breakout (still below average Monday). GAP continued its breakout, but has been rising on falling volume.
Stocks/Indexes from the weekend report:
ASL: A small move up in the ascending wedge, with volume falling well below average.
PDX: Holding steady in the handle.
RGFC: Ditto.
QQQ: Made the bounce. Closed just under some resistance at the 10 day MVA (35.21).
OEX: The OEX was up $9.74, making the bounce we expected. Volume was lower but it can still move up to the 50 day MVA (569), our initial target.
Continued plays:
Covered call:
FRED: Closed lower Monday, but still above the lateral consolidation that is now providing support. Buyback point for the covered call sale play was 31.88. FRED can bounce back up from here, but we are looking for a fall through to the 18 day MVA (30.84).
BLL: Split shares and held for a small gain with volume still strong. It tapped that upper channel line on the low; we are looking for a drop below that if we get a sell-off, for a test of 39-40.
Other plays:
ACE: Testing the breakout, and made a little bounce up Monday as volume held steady (still well below average). Looks good!
ASYT: Fell out of the ascending wedge but made a good bounce from the 50 day MVA after testing back to that support Friday.
PCX: Moving up on rising volume in the handle to its 5-month cup (2-19).
LNY: Stronger volume in the lateral pattern that is a test of the recent breakout, and the stock is still tightened up nicely above support (12-14).
Puts:
QSFT: Still holding put positions taken at 18.50. The stock is moving up to resistance, the short term down trendline, on lower volume. Target is 15.
MYGN: Holding current positions (taken at 38). Rising volume and the stock looks ready to make a drop here (closed at 33.97). Target is 32.
ESST: Hit the buy point (18.90) a week ago, and has moved up to resistance on low volume (the stock did not make much of a drop after hitting the buy point). Target for the put play is 14, at the 200 day MVA.
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE:
RMCI (Right Mgmt Consultants--$25.45; +1.69; optionable): Business Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmci.html
STATUS: In a nice 3-month cup base; the stock already broke out of a handle-type formation earlier this month but that did not break it out of the cup, although the stock has pulled back (and only slightly) just one day. That was Friday, and today volume spiked above average to 362,300 (avg. 325,100), breaking RMCI higher as well. RMCI is close to moving out over the highs at the start of the base (27.45) and while it can very well form another handle here, it at least looks ready to tack on some more to this move. The stock opened at 23.35, the 10 day MVA, before heading higher. RMCI has strong money flow and buying.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rmci.html
Best Plays:
1) LOW: Breaking out on good news.
2) STAR: Looks ready to break out!
3) LYTS: Ditto.
New:
LOW (Lowe's--$47.49; +1.44; optionable): Retail: Home Improvement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: LOW is a former New Leader stock, and has been looking better since it crossed back over the 50 day MVA back in January. The stock corrected below that support after making a strong November and December run to the December high at 48.88). Once above the 50 day, LOW began to form an ascending wedge-type pattern since the first of February, holding above the 50 day MVA (now at 44.50), and Monday broke out of that pattern on strong volume (7.1 million; avg. 4.1 million). Before the bell the company reported strong earnings that beat expectations, and raised guidance. The stock is in an 8-week flat base, and can break out of it on this move as the good news carries it forward. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 49.60 (buy point was 47.24). Target: 57
BUY POINT: 47.85 on continued strong volume. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 49.60. Stop advisory (7%): 44.50
POSITION: Stock and/or July $42.50 calls to buy (LOW GV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
Update:
STAR (Lone Star Steakhouse--$19.97; +0.62; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/star.html
STATUS: STAR has formed a little reverse head and shoulders or cup pattern above support of its short term moving averages, and off the recent strong breakout move from January's lateral consolidation. Monday STAR made a good move up from the 10 day MVA (19.20), and volume was supportive at 255,300 (avg. 198,000). Looking for a breakout and move up to an initial target at 22; beyond that, 24. Earlier buy point on the 18 day MVA bounce was at 19.75. Excellent money flow and high relative strength.
BUY POINT: Holding positions for 19.75 buy point. New buy point: 20.10 on volume of 270,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 18.69
POSITION: Stock and/or July $17.50 calls to buy (OUE GW).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/star.html
Previously covered and trades on less than 100,000 average daily volume:
LYTS (LSI Industries--$19.05; +0.27; no options): Business Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lyts.html
STATUS: Office supplies had a good day today. LYTS broke out of its 6-month ascending wedge pattern 4 days ago, pulled back for a day and then started moving back up after the quick test. Since Thursday the stock has tested on the intraday lows support at 18.30, and it was from that support Monday that LYTS shot up on a strong jolt of volume (156,200; avg. 44,000). On the move the stock cleared the breakout closing high of 19. Since that earlier breakout was cut short, we are looking for a successful run here.
LYTS shows huge money flow and high relative strength, and our target is 23.
BUY POINT: New (the stock hit earlier buy point of 18.35 on the ascending wedge breakout): 19.15 on continued strong volume. Stop advisory (7%): 17.81
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lyts.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, BMET, APPB, IGT.
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$72.11; -0.44; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: DGX remains in the 8-month cup base, and is trying to form another handle. It is holding above the 18 day MVA (71.53) on low volume, which was at its lowest levels Monday since late December (301,000; avg. 564,000) as the stock pulled back to close at the 10 day MVA. It is holding at an up trendline connecting the November and January lows, and we look for the stock to continue consolidating here for another day or so ahead of a strong move back up. It needs to clear the January high at 73.45, but we are looking for a breakout over the February high at 74.85. While the stock is not in a good-looking handle here (as it was in later January), with a tightening consolidation on low volume, that high will be the point above which our buy point is plotted. High money flow. Target: 90
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 73.60 on volume of 305,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 68.45. Breakout: 74.95 on volume of 846,000 or higher. Stop advisory (7%): 69.70
POSITION: Stock and/or May $65 calls to buy (DGX EM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dgx.html
LLL (108.79; -2.01): Stronger volume selling down to the 10 day MVA Monday (108.43). The stock closed near the low just above that support, and on the strong volume can break it for the fall to the 18 day MVA, currently at 105.76. That is our target for the covered call buyback.
BMET ($31.49; +0.44): Held above the 50 day MVA with volume falling back. Still below the 18 day MVA, and volume is still above average, so we are watching that 50 day.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($33.81; +0.97): As it turned out, BBBY moved back over the 50 day MVA Monday though on lighter, below average volume. That didn't stop it from closing above the 18 day MVA (33.64). In the flat base pattern and we'll look for a hold here until volume can break it higher.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
ORCL ($16.34; +0.84): Looked better Monday, hopping back over the 18 and 50 day MVA on stronger, average level volume. Has overhead supply up to the 17-17.50 range.
WMT ($60.65; +0.70): New closing high today on strong volume! The stock has been making these short intraday moves be it up or down, but we like this one.
EMLX ($36.85; +1.45): Started the bounce higher, for the move we want up to the 50 day MVA range (39.46) for the quick upside play. Hit the 36.05 buy point.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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